Quote Originally Posted by Hanren View Post
Convection (rain clouds) is still weak. The upper level environment remains favorable though with low to moderate vertical wind shear. It still has a fair (not yet good though) chance of ever developing into a significant
storm.

Let's just hope it dissipates right away.
There's also a moderate to strong low-level northeasterly flow expected over the waters near Taiwan induced by high pressure over the mainland. That's going to help moderate low-level temperatures, another factor not favoring development. I'm not sure how good the GFS models are. The PAGASA forecasters know what model(s) work best for them. But, the near term trend is to weaken the system which is what I'm going with.

There's still enough activity to bring enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern Philippines and northern Luzon might feel a tad bit cooler with that northeasterly flow. PAGASA got it covered pretty well.