Hello .. i don't want to spoil your holidays but at least, we could be prepared for another storm that's coming..again. Please be prepared..


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WDPN31 PGTW 170300MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W WARNING NR 01//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 170000Z DEC TO 200000Z DEC 2006. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 26W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NMSOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVERTHE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWSTHAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A162253Z SSMI IMAGE DEPICTS DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVERTHE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. B. TD 26W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OFTHE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL (850-700 MB) RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THESYSTEM. TD 26W IS TRACKING TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICALRIDGE WHICH IS POSITIONED EAST OF TAIWAN. TD 26W IS FORECAST TOCONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BUT WILL BEGINTO TRACK WESTWARD AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTCHINA SEA, PROPAGATES NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TEMP-ORARILY RE-ESTABLISHES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LIMITEDDYNAMIC AIDS (WBAR, JTYM, AND JGSM) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THISTRACK SCENARIO. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESEAIDS. C. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVERTHE SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS FAIR, BUT IMPROVING,POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG MIDLATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIESASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. TD 26W I***PECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECASTPERIOD. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED DEVELOPING SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//NNNN