ano epekto sa 'tin ng US mortgage meltdown?

[109]

stockmarket, apektado na.

marami daw nagbebenta ngayon ng bahay sa amerika, bagsak presyo.

dito kaya, bababa din presyo ng real estate? lote, bahay, condo

[n2knee]

stockmarket, apektado na.

marami daw nagbebenta ngayon ng bahay sa amerika, bagsak presyo.

dito kaya, bababa din presyo ng real estate? lote, bahay, condo

hindi apektado ang real estate dian.

yung mga karamihan na nagbebenta ng bahay dito ay yung mga may sub-prime loans. usually, mataas ang interest rate ng sub prime mortgage. may mga home owners din na, 3 or 4 years ago ay kumuha ng adjustable rate mortgage dahil mababa pa ang interest rates noon. ng biglang tumaas, tumaas din ang kanilang monthly payments, kasabay ng pagbaba ng value ng mga bahay na halos mas malaki na ang mortgage balance kaysa sa equity ng bahay, karamihan ay mas magandang solution ay ibenta na lang.

kung hindi ka naman nagbebenta ng bahay, ok lang dahil bumaba lang ang value ng bahay mo sa papel. basta kaya mo pang bayaran ang mortgage, "weather the storm" ika nga. predicted time period na mag stablize ang downward trend ng mga presyo ng bahay ay next year to early 2009. buyers market ngayon.

[uls]

walang effect sa real estate natin.

Ang effect lang puro investor sentiment. Kaya may araw na tataas ang stocks, may araw na bagsak. Wala pa kasi confidence ang mga investors.

Wala din effect sa mga bangko natin.

The effect down the line is this: If the US economy slows down, world economic growth would be affected.

.

[artpogi]

walang effect sa local real estate market yan....

[Jun aka Pekto]

There are parts of the US which is enduring a housing slump. But, the western US is still red hot and our house right now is double the price we paid for 3 years ago..

[empy]

expect the market to take a slight downturn, especially in financial services, since a US credit crisis upsets the delicate financial balance in the world financial market. it's already happened in the major European and Asian indices.

as far as local everyday life? not much.

[wildthing]

indirect effect meron sa whole economy ... pero sa real estate mahirap i-predict kasi value added selling ang real estate sa pinas.

[van_wilder]

liquidity ang unang tatamaan kaya yun stock exchange una nakaramdam dahil dependent siya sa volume and liquidity.

if walang liquidity, bank runs are not so impossible.

[CVT]

Takot na may crunch na sa mga perang puwedeng ipautang.... kaya ayan, apektado ang stock market sa buong mundo....

3606

[van_wilder]

kasi stock traders are speculating based on the assumption that the global economy would continue to go up, but reality (subprime) tells us something different. for the last few years, traders, fund managers, and analysts forgot about risk. but when risk came back along with vegeance, traders realized that they are overvaluing their assets and that growth slowdown is on its way. thus NINJA (no income, no job, no asset - subprime) would default on their loans, fund managers have to liquidate equities since they can no longer liquidate their real estate properties kasi bumagsak na. very much like thailand in 1997.

next year the problem would be inflation since the fed MIGHT cut interest rates before elections to save the country from the subprime problem which MIGHT put the country into recession. cutting interest rates would provide liquidity to help people pay their loans, but it would also increase the demand for consumer goods, kaya high inflation naman.

2009 (around june-october), US might see the real problem of liquidity and over valued assets thus bursting the bubble. their reserves would be diminished at this point after saving the markets and the economy for the past few years. but this would be a very soft landing. very much in time for the 2nd year of the next president which is always the lowest point of the stockmarket cycle. itong part na tayo (phils) madadale since we export a lot to US and europe. pero since our banking is quite conservative, 2010 natin maramdaman yan. if the govt intervenes (so that they could win the elections), 2011 would be definitely be a 'not-so' good year... or maybe the start of recession or bear market...

for the short term, i think we have seen it. fundies (deutsche bank, jp morgan, ubs, hsbc, etc) need to save their portfolio, so they have to liquidate equities (stocks) syempre tayo una kasi emerging market tayo and under the classification of 'speculative' because they are a big part of our market and they have to liquidate, supply would exceed demand thus the sudden drop.