World economy talk

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facebook to begin trading at 11

Zuckerberg rings NASDAQ opening bell



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FB AT $70/SHARE IN GERMANY

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11:05 FB starts trading

update: not yet

update:

Nasdaq: Says Will Update Traders On Facebook IPO, Trading Yet To Begin - DJ

what the hell is wrong with nasdaq

update:

NASDAQ shares dropping as traders await open of #FacebookIPO.

hahaha

update:

NASDAQ says delay in delivering opening print on Facebook.

update: FB begins trading. opens at $42.05

update: $38

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FB closed at $38.23

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bankers prevented the price from falling below $38

look at the size of $38 bids (left side) at various exchanges (BATS, Arca etc) compared to the size of offers (ask -- right side)

[Monseratto]

Mabuhay ang Bagong Kasal!!!



And no, Priscilla Chan has not an inch of pinoy in her... Chinese-American.

Zuckerberg and 27-year-old Priscilla Chan tied the knot at a small ceremony at his Palo Alto, Calif., home Saturday, capping a busy week for the couple.

Zuckerberg took his company public in one of the most anticipated moves in Wall Street history Friday. And Chan graduated from medical school at the University of California, San Francisco, on Monday, the same day Zuckerberg turned 28.

The couple met at Harvard and have been together for more than nine years.

A company spokeswoman said Zuckerberg designed the ring featuring "a very simple ruby" that he designed himself.

The ceremony took place in Zuckerberg's backyard before fewer than 100 guests, who all thought they were there to celebrate Chan's graduation.

[boybi]

Mabuhay ang Bagong Kasal!!!

And no, Priscilla Chan has not an inch of pinoy in her... Chinese-American.

Are you sure?

Baka her parents conceived her while they're in vacation somewhere in the Phils.
Or nag connecting flight sila from sa NAIA from China to the US, sasabihin ng ABSCBN: "magulang ni Priscilla, umapak ng pilipinas bago humantong sa estados unidos!" :bwahaha:

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^^

buti nalang he wore a suit

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re JP Morgan

JP Morgan losses already at 3 billion and counting

could reach 5 billion

[Monseratto]

Being the biggest banker to the US gets certain priveleges...

Exclusive: U.S. lets China bypass Wall Street for Treasury orders | Reuters

Exclusive: U.S. lets China bypass Wall Street for Treasury orders

NEW YORK | Mon May 21, 2012 3:35pm EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) - China can now bypass Wall Street when buying U.S. government debt and go straight to the U.S. Treasury, in what is the Treasury's first-ever direct relationship with a foreign government, according to documents viewed by Reuters.

The relationship means the People's Bank of China buys U.S. debt using a different method than any other central bank in the world.

The other central banks, including the Bank of Japan, which has a large appetite for Treasuries, place orders for U.S. debt with major Wall Street banks designated by the government as primary dealers. Those dealers then bid on their behalf at Treasury auctions.

China, which holds $1.17 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, still buys some Treasuries through primary dealers, but since June 2011, that route hasn't been necessary.

The documents viewed by Reuters show the U.S. Treasury Department has given the People's Bank of China a direct computer link to its auction system, which the Chinese first used to buy two-year notes in late June 2011.

China can now participate in auctions without placing bids through primary dealers. If it wants to sell, however, it still has to go through the market.

The change was not announced publicly or in any message to primary dealers.

The privilege may help China obtain U.S. debt for a better price by keeping Wall Street's knowledge of its orders to a minimum.

Primary dealers are not allowed to charge customers money to bid on their behalf at Treasury auctions, so China isn't saving money by cutting out commission fees.

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Being the biggest banker to the US gets certain priveleges...

Exclusive: U.S. lets China bypass Wall Street for Treasury orders | Reuters

from the article:

The privilege may help China obtain U.S. debt for a better price by keeping Wall Street's knowledge of its orders to a minimum.

it's coz China is such a large buyer that when they place orders thru primary dealers everybody finds out they're buying so bond prices are driven up

being a direct bidder allows China to buy secretly to get better pricing

[Monseratto]

Morgan Stanley downgrade of Facebook before IPO is affecting its current price...

(Reuters) - In the run-up to Facebook's $16 billion IPO, Morgan Stanley, the lead underwriter on the deal, unexpectedly delivered some negative news to major clients: The bank's consumer Internet analyst, Scott Devitt, was reducing his revenue forecasts for the company.

The sudden caution very close to the huge initial public offering, and while an investor roadshow was underway, was a big shock to some, said two investors who were advised of the revised forecast.

They say it may have contributed to the weak performance of Facebook shares, which sank on Monday - their second day of trading - to end 10 percent below the IPO price. The $38 per share IPO price valued Facebook at $104 billion.

The people familiar with the revised Morgan Stanley projections said Devitt cut his revenue estimate for the current second quarter significantly, and also cut his full-year 2012 revenue forecast. Devitt's precise estimates could not be immediately verified.

"That deceleration freaked a lot of people out," said one of the investors.

Scott Sweet, senior managing partner at the research firm IPO Boutique, said he was also aware of the reduced estimates.

"They definitely lowered their numbers and there was some concern about that," he said. "My biggest hedge fund client told me they lowered their numbers right around mid-roadshow."

That client, he said, still bought the issue but "flipped his IPO allocation and went short on the first day."

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FB stock should be in the $20s

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Germany 2 yr note auction

0.07% yield!

record low

[Monseratto]

Brent crude fell $1.39 to $107.02 per barrel. U.S. July crude fell $1.08 to $90.77.

Oil falls on potential Iran deal, economy concerns - Yahoo! Finance

Brent crude fell $1.39 to $107.02 per barrel. U.S. July crude fell $1.08 to $90.77.

Brent crude oil has fallen from a peak of $128.40 at the start of May and is down 12.9 percent this quarter, its biggest such drop since the fourth quarter of 2008.

Analysts said they believe there is scope for fresh weakness.

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Germany 10 yr yield record low 1.395%

30 yr also at record low below 2%

EURUSD falls below 1.26

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record low yield UK 10yr and Germany 10yr

EURUSD 1.2525

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Get ready for the exit... Even if Greece denies this vehemently.

Each euro zone country will have to prepare a contingency plan for the eventuality of Greece leaving the single currency, three euro zone sources said on Wednesday, citing an agreement reached by officials.

The consensus was reached on Monday afternoon during an hour-long teleconference of the Eurogroup Working Group (EWG).

As well as confirmation from three euro zone officials, Reuters has seen a memo drawn up by one member state detailing some of the elements that euro zone countries should consider.

The EWG consists of officials who prepare meetings of finance ministers and also form the board of the temporary bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) . It consists mostly of deputy finance ministers and senior treasury officials.

"The EWG agreed that each euro zone country should prepare a contingency plan, individually, for the potential consequences of a Greek exit from the euro," said one euro zone official familiar with what was discussed on the call. "Nothing was prepared so far on the euro zone level for now, for fear of leaks."

A second official confirmed the EWG agreement. The situation in Greece, which faces elections on June 17, seems certain to be discussed at an EU summit later on Wednesday.

The document seen by Reuters detailed the potential costs to individual member states of a Greek exit and said that if it came about, an "amiable divorce" should be sought.

It also said that if Greece were to decide to leave, the European Union/International Monetary Fund could give it up to 50 billion euros ($63.27 billion) to ease its path.

The document said Athens would bear huge costs if it decided to abandon the currency, while other euro zone countries would have more limited costs.

But the paper said that the risk of knock-on effects that could hit other euro zone countries under market scrutiny now was underestimated. "The markets will definitively distrust the euro," the paper said.

"Greece is threatening not to implement the reform and consolidation measures that were agreed in return for the large-scale aid programs," the Bundesbank said. "This jeopardizes the continued provision of assistance. Greece would have to bear the consequences of such a scenario."

[Monseratto]

The third scenario is the most interesting yett most frightening...

What would Greek exit mean for the U.S. economy? | Reuters

What would Greek exit mean for the U.S. economy?
By Stella Dawson

Thu May 24, 2012 7:04pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Uncertainty over the fate of the euro currency is already dampening U.S. economic growth and any significant worsening of the crisis would deal a blow to a recovery that is gradually gathering steam.


EURO ZONE STUMBLES ALONG

SCENARIO: Greece elects a government on June 17 that continues implementing the EU/IMF bailout program, possibly with some softened conditions. Greece stays in the monetary union for now. Spain recapitalizes its banks, possibly with some EU help. ECB liquidity injections and EU-wide guarantees help stabilize the big French and German banks to insulate them and the broader financial markets from further damage. Bouts of market uncertainty continue in the months and years ahead, but gradually EU integration advances.

IMPACT: Ongoing volatility in financial markets and slow-to-mildly negative euro zone growth would continue acting like a low-grade fever weakening U.S. growth. This already is the baseline scenario for most analysts' forecasts. TD Economics said it has marked down its 2012 outlook for 2.0 percent growth by about a quarter to half a percentage point because of Europe. IHS Global Insight has trimmed about one tenth of a point from its 2.2 percent forecast for this year.

GREECE LEAVES EURO ZONE

SCENARIO: An anti-austerity government takes power in Greece and rejects the bailout terms. The EU and IMF stop lending Greece money. Athens runs out of cash, defaults on its debt and starts printing its own currency to pay bills. Its banking system collapses. The European Union has had time to draw up contingency plans and succeeds in preventing the currency exit and debt default by Greece from pulling down Spain, Italy and Portugal and manages to stabilize its banking sector quickly. The Federal Reserve may help provide market liquidity through new FX swaps with Europe and quantitative easing.

IMPACT: Greece accounts for only 2 percent of euro zone GDP and U.S. exports to Greece are negligible. So too is U.S. credit exposure. U.S. money market funds have largely moved away from investing in Europe. Greece owes the private sector $70 billion, but mostly that is to German and French banks, according to the Institute of International Finance. The bulk of its $460 billion in external debt is held by the European Central Bank, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

Hence the direct impact of a default and euro exit by Greece on the U.S. economy would be quite small, as long it were contained - but that is a big "if." Once one country leaves, market focus would switch to other deeply indebted countries - Spain, Portugal, Ireland and even Italy. European policymakers would need to sling a safety net under these countries and big EU banks to prevent the contagion from spreading and imperiling the euro zone.

The immediate shock of a Greek exit probably would shave half a percentage point from U.S. GDP in the quarter when it happened and soften growth in the subsequent quarter, said Craig Alexander, chief economist at TD Economics. But if managed smoothly, a Greek exit could cause a burst of optimism that the euro zone woes are over and strengthen U.S. output subsequently, he said.

Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, said his firm is about to change its baseline forecast to a managed Greece exit, probably early next year. He expects to cut its U.S. GDP forecast for 2013 of 2.4 percent by two to three tenths of a percentage point.

MESSY GREEK EXIT, DAMAGE SPREADS

SCENARIO: Greece crashes out of the euro. Yields skyrocket for Spanish and Italian bonds locking them out of the government debt markets. Spanish and Italian depositors withdraw cash in panic over the possibility of their countries leaving the euro zone, too. Global equity markets sink. Investors pile into U.S. markets as a safe haven. The U.S. dollar soars as the euro plunges. European banks face funding shortages as investors shun the euro zone and the banking system seizes up. Global markets become chaotic.

IMPACT: This is the nightmare scenario. The economic impact in the United States would be felt through trade, financial linkages and business and consumer confidence. The size depends upon how quickly policymakers could stabilize the situation and whether any big financial institution whipsawed by a rapid repricing of assets is in danger of collapsing.

At the very least, shockwaves through financial markets would cause a downward jolt to the U.S. economy, immediately erasing at least half a percentage point from growth in that quarter.

If Europe's banking system shuts down, violent shudders through global financial markets would equal or surpass those seen when Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. Banks are better capitalized today than four years ago and therefore better able to weather the storm. But with interest rates near zero and governments fiscally stretched, advanced economies this time around would have fewer tools to offset the hit to growth.

At the very least, the U.S. and global economy would fall back into recession, and some economists warn it would be far deeper and more dangerous than the one of 2007-2009. The U.S. Fed would be almost certain to embark on a fresh round of bond buying, known as quantitative easing, to keep financial markets highly liquid and hold interest rates low.

[Monseratto]

BBC News - Bankia shares are suspended in Madrid

Bankia shares are suspended in Madrid


The government holds a 45% stake in Bankia

Trading in shares in the Spanish lender Bankia have been suspended in Madrid.

The market regulator CNMV said it was "due to circumstances that may affect the normal share trading".

Bankia is reported to be due to ask the government for a bailout of more than 15bn euros ($19bn; £12bn) after a board meeting later on Friday.

Bankia, which is Spain's fourth-largest bank, was part-nationalised two weeks ago because of its problems with bad property debt.

Any extra government money would be on top of the 4.5bn euros in state loans that the government converted into shares in the group in the part-nationalisation process.

Shares in Bankia's parent company Banco Financiero y de Ahorros (BFA) have also been suspended.

Bankia was created in 2010 from the merger of seven struggling regional savings banks.

It holds 32bn euros in distressed property assets.

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earlier they said Bankia will cost the Spanish govt 9 billion euros

yeah right

more like 20 billion

and Bankia is just one on many problems of the Spanish govt