World economy talk

[Gen. Miting]

yep

S&P new low

lowest of the low happened in the 15th month of the 1929-32 bear period, almost 60%.

[uls]

pls note:

1929-32 is based on the Dow

the other 3 are based on S&P500

based on the S&P, the present bear market is already worse than the other 2 (1973-74 and 2000-02)

the purpose of the chart is to tell us that the present bear market is still ONGOING

nobody knows how bad it will get and how long it will last

but many say there will still be no recovery this year

[Gen. Miting]

wala pa naman S&P nun 1930's, 1950's ata nagstart yan

===

talagang many will say there will still be no recovery this year. imagine sa chart pa lang na ganyan tine-trending na nila eh mali naman ang data.

bakit ba gusto tayo pabagsakin psychologically. psychological warfare talaga labanan ngaun. make the people become more pessimists para lalo bumagsak

[uls]

wala pa naman S&P nun 1930's, 1950's ata nagstart yan

kaya nga

ano ba ang nasa chart?

hindi ba Dow ung 1930s?

at yung iba S&P?

DUH

[leonleon]

They always get screwed what do you expect? Bailouts here, bailout there. Basta government pag dating sa pera sila ang pinaka walang kwenta kasi di naman nila pera yun.

At least di lang pala Pilipinas and ginagago ng USG. Pati sarili nilang mamamayan ginagago nila.

As for governments in general, sabi nga nila: DON'T STEAL, THE GOVERNMENT HATES COMPETITION.

[leonleon]

When one is greedy there is no logic he just gets consume with greed and he will always repeat those mistakes...

Ah... greed... the root of all evil. That is the biggest problem of the Capitalist Western world, and one to which no government is even remotely finding a solution at all.

We all harbor this insane illusion that unlimited expansion (consumerism) can take place in a shrinking (dwindling resources) planet, and that wealth is an end justified by any and all means available.

Maybe after taking on and slaying the evils of communism, the Americans and its allies should address the evils of captalism.

[Gen. Miting]

there's nothing wrong with expansion. what's wrong is expanding.

for example, if you have so many cars doing the same thing (point a to b) -
if you have so many houses that are uninhabited
if you have so many collections of the same comic books, nba cards, toys, vintage cars, vintage motorcycles, and every collectable item out there
if you have too much money deposited in banks

that's the problem. you have too much of the same thing, that is greed.

expansion in its clearest sense is exploring the unknown or something new that you can learn from.

[tidus1203]

Just wanted to post the quote of my favorite US Congressman Ron Paul of Texas 14th district regarding the bailouts.

"In bailing out failing companies, they are confiscating money from productive members of the economy and giving it to failing ones. By sustaining companies with obsolete or unsustainable business models, the government prevents their resources from being liquidated and made available to other companies that can put them to better, more productive use. An essential element of a healthy free market, is that both success and failure must be permitted to happen when they are earned. But instead with a bailout, the rewards are reversed – the proceeds from successful entities are given to failing ones. How this is supposed to be good for our economy is beyond me.... It won’t work. It can’t work... It is obvious to most Americans that we need to reject corporate cronyism, and allow the natural regulations and incentives of the free market to pick the winners and losers in our economy, not the whims of bureaucrats and politicians."

[uls]

^^^

that's the reason why most investors are still on the sidelines

they still have to figure out the rules of the new environment

while the govt is still reacting to new troubles as they arise (playing whack-a-mole), the rules are being made as they go

investors can make money in any environment as long as they know the rules

pero sa ngayon hindi pa

sa ngayon, investors will only consider an investment safe if it is guaranteed by the US govt

like FDIC backed bonds

---

as expected, the black hole known as AIG is back

AIG Nears Pact With the US On Revised Bailout Package
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29442377

American International Group is close to a deal with the U.S. government that would ease the terms of its bailout, give a further equity commitment and help it pay down debt, a person familiar with the matter said on Saturday.

The board of the troubled insurer is due to meet on Sunday to vote on the deal, which could be announced when AIG [AIG 0.42 -0.10 (-19.23%) ] reports its quarterly results on Monday.

The revised agreement is expected to include an additional $30 billion equity commitment from the government, more lenient terms on an existing preferred investment, and a lower interest rate on an existing $60 billion government credit line, the source said.

AIG will also give the Federal Reserve ownership interests in its Asia-based American Life Insurance (Alico) and American International Assurance Co (AIA) units, the source said.

[Monseratto]

[AIG 0.42 -0.10 (-19.23%) ]

Mukhang nag-flatline na siya...

[uls]

haha

and keep it mind AIG is 80% owned by the USG (i mean US taxpayer)

sobra lugi

on Monday, AIG will announce a $60B loss

and AIG will also announce it will be broken up to stay afloat

[tidus1203]

As far as I am concerned AIG and Citigroup are worthless... Their losses and liabilities are much greater than their income and assets... Stock prices will never go to ZERO since maskin papano meron paring mga sugarol dyan maybe just maybe these zombies can be ressurected but its a long shot thus the price is near ZERO...

[Monseratto]

Hehehe...buti yung 'pinas isolated so far.

March 1 (Bloomberg) -- European Union leaders rejected pleas for an aid package for eastern Europe and EU funds for carmakers, bowing to German concerns over budget deficits as the economic slump deepens.

The EU’s $17 trillion economy will contract 1.8 percent in 2009, the European Commission predicts. Latvia, a former Soviet republic that was the bloc’s star performer only three years ago, will shrink 6.9 percent. Growth in Poland, the biggest eastern economy, will tumble to 2 percent, the slackest pace since 2002.

Investors fleeing eastern Europe to cover losses at home have pushed down Poland’s zloty by 28 percent against the euro in the past six months, Hungary’s forint by 21 percent, Romania’s leu by 18 percent and the Czech koruna by 12 percent.

[uls]

hehe

Eastern Europe is subprime

--

Know why we are kinda isolated?

the Phil didnt borrow money like crazy like other countries

so our economy didnt really boom when the rest of the world was booming

so in this crisis, the Phils doesnt have far to fall

i mean nasa 2nd floor lang ang Pinas

so pag nahulog sa ground floor, di masyado masakit hehe

ang ibang bansa, nasa 50th floor or 100th floor

pag nahulog, patay

hehe

[uls]

back to my favorite company in the whole wide world -- AIG

If AIG is allowed to fail, many banks that made bets (credit default swaps) with AIG could also fail

that's why the USG is keeping AIG alive no matter what the cost

Now AIG is back

it's gonna get $30B this time

it's just another band aid

the band aid won't stop the bleeding

AIG has written over $400B worth of CDS

it has already paid out only $100B+

as long as the economy keeps worsening, the bonds AIG insured will keep deteriorating and defaulting, triggerring collateral calls and CDS payouts

worst case, AIG will be paying out $300B+ more

AIG will keep going back to the USG for help

[Monseratto]

so in this crisis, the Phils doesnt have far to fall

i mean nasa 2nd floor lang ang Pinas

so pag nahulog sa ground floor, di masyado masakit hehe

ang ibang bansa, nasa 50th floor or 100th floor

pag nahulog, patay

hehe

Nice one ULS! Someone said that the Philippine is a veteran when it come to crises, because it always has been in one...

[tidus1203]

US stock markets now open. DJIA falls below 7000, making new lows again everyday hehehehe...

And its not just the US there is a global sell-off in stocks worldwide from Japan to London and now to New York. GLOBAL SELLOFF!!! Amidst this chaos in equities I still find solace in the Forex markets. The USD rose against other currencies today except against the Yen.

[tidus1203]

AIG just loosed $61.7B in the 4th quarter of 2008 alone... This is one big fat zombie... Just one quarter it ate that much money. Well at least ako sa AIG for setting a new record. The biggest quarterly loss in Earth corporate history :evil:

[uls]

haha

and a full year (2008) loss of $99.29B!

kaya AIG is my favorite company in the whole freaking world



---

Dow below 7000 as i'm typing this

[tidus1203]

PLUNGED!!!! 300 pts for the DJIA the S&P500 is near 1996 levels...