World economy talk

[uls]

OB and other guys who wanna talk about military power please post in this thread nalang

Is WWIII inevitable?

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Opinion | [emoji632] There's one part of the euro zone that's looking significantly less gloomy than the rest: France. Its economic model – less reliant on exports than Germany – is proving more resilient to the dangers of a U.S.-inspired trade war. While Germany teeters on the edge of recession, France has reduced unemployment, seen wages accelerate and real household income rise by nearly 1% in the two quarters around the turn of last year. Ferdinand Giugliano writes that Macron's $27.7 billion fiscal boost came at the right time, lifting disposable income. He writes: "The contrast with Germany's increasingly depressed companies is striking...In less than a year France has gone from being in the European sickbay to being a rare symbol of health. For a president seen as prematurely doomed, it’s quite a turnaround."

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[uls]

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the German govt can help their economy by boosting spending but they're resistant to the idea

of all countries in the eurozone, Germany is the one that has room to spend (they have a huge budget surplus)

but their collective consciousness won't allow it (carried over from their experience with hyperinflation)

[uls]

Last post Sept 9

Poor thread needs an update so what's going on

Since last week bond prices have been crashing

How bad is it?

Did I mention German govt bonds were yielding negative all the way out to 30 years?

Well, the 30Y yield is now above zero

(Bond yields up price down)

[uls]

it's ECB day and the euro is bid

[uls]

ECB rate cut + QE

check out the euro's wild swing

[Monseratto]

Meanwhile * warzone know as Hong Kong




Hong Kong Tourism Plunges 40%, Most Since SARS Crisis



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[Monseratto]

Winning sabi nI SE.


U.S. manufacturing dives to 10-year low as trade tensions weigh - Reuters

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[uls]

Trump is blaming the strong dollar (Fed monetary policy being too tight) for US manufacturing slowdown




dumb sh*t

i pointed out last year that the global economy is already slowing

when your overseas customers aren't feeling good they buy less --> your exports slow down --> your inventories rise --> you slow down production

that's what happened

[uls]

and you add a trade war to an already slowing global economy

this is what you get

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Driving US consumer growth...

Living off on debt...

The Seven-Year Auto Loan: America’s Middle Class Can’t Afford Its Cars - WSJ

[uls]

situation in HK cause for concern

Luxury brands (5 to 10 percent of global sales come from HK)








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content storm today

sorry more almost 2 weeks without content for this thread

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Mmya na...

A key number on Thursday will reveal whether the economic slowdown is spreading

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[Monseratto]

Gold settles higher as downbeat U.S. ISM services data back haven demand for the metal - MarketWatch

ISM down... Non farm payroll next.



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[uls]

stocks fell initially then rallied

Why?

coz bad news is good news

ISM non-manufacturing fell to 52.6 in September (3 yr low)

the market is now expecting another rate cut

[Monseratto]

Could also be a technical rally...

stocks fell initially then rallied

Why?

coz bad news is good news

ISM non-manufacturing fell to 52.6 in September (3 yr low)

the market is now expecting another rate cut

[uls]

after ISM services data



^^

current Fed target rate is 175-200 bps

market expecting 25 bps cut later this month

[uls]

US jobs report tonight

if the report shows weakness the probability of a rate cut this month will rise to almost 100% --> downside pressure on USD, gold will be bid

if the report meets or exceeds expectations the market will ignore it anyway

coz there's no longer any doubt the US economy is slowing down

[Monseratto]

The Brits just loss more Goodwill points from the EU...



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[Monseratto]

Trumpy signs off approval for chipmakers Quallcomm, Micron and others to sell again to Huawei. After relentless lobbying by the chipmakers, who are afraid of losing a big volume customer. But seems the gesture is too late... Huawei is already making their own Kirin Chips.


Trump Signs Off on Licenses for Doing Business With Huawei - WSJ