World economy talk

[Monseratto]

Egypt ticking away towards Military ultimatum for President Morsi...affecting oil prices.

European Stocks Drop on Portugal Concerns as Oil Surges
By Sarah JonesJuly 03, 2013 Facebook Tweet LinkedIn Google Plus Email


European stocks dropped the most in more than a week as Portugal’s coalition government splintered and crude oil surged above $100 a barrel amid rising unrest in Egypt. Asian shares and U.S. index futures also declined.

New York's main contract, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light sweet crude for delivery in August, was up $2.25 at $101.85 a barrel in afternoon trade, while Brent North Sea crude for August gained $1.13 to $105.13.

WTI had jumped $1.61 to close at $99.60 in New York, its highest settling point since May 2012. Brent crude spiked $1 to $104.00 in US trade.

"There is a real concern in the oil market about the situation in Egypt, and whether the unrest could spread to the rest of the Middle East," Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney, told AFP.

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boom!

short squeeze

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LONDON (MarketWatch) — The Bank of England on Thursday signaled that it won’t be raising interest rates anytime soon, lifting the FTSE 100 and putting big pressure on the British pound in the process.

The European Central Bank, which didn’t budge on its main financing rate, followed up with a similar tone as President Mario Draghi vowed to keep rates low, or maybe even push them lower. This sent the euro sharply lower against the dollar.

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tonight

US jobs report

+166K estimate

7.6% unemployment rate

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king dollar!

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+195K jobs

unemployment rate 7.6%

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dollar index


sept 2013 t-note future


sept 2013 t-bond future

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...il-steady.html

Treasuries sank, sending the 10-year yield to the highest since August 2011, while the dollar rallied and gold tumbled as faster-than-forecast jobs growth fueled bets the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its bond buying. U.S. stocks extended a weekly gain.

The rate on the 10-year U.S. note climbed 18 basis points to 2.69 percent as of 9:35 a.m. in New York and the Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against six major peers, rose 1.3 percent to 84.34. Gold declined 2.4 percent to $1,219.55 an ounce. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.7 percent while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.5 percent.

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the Fed could begin reducing bond purchases in September

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the shoiuld send bond prices crashing/yields soaring in emerging markets

US 5yr yield

10yr yield

30 yr yield

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dollar rally takes a break

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China's June Trade Data Much Worse Than Expected

China's exports tumbled in June, falling 3.1 percent from the year ago period, marking the first decline since January 2012.

The figures were a major miss against Reuters expectations for a rise of 4 percent. Exports climbed 1 percent in May.

Imports also fell, down 0.7 percent on year, compared to a Reuters forecast of a rise of 8 percent, and worse than the 0.3 percent drop in May.

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USDJPY below 100

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dollar falls, gold rallies, stock and bond futures rally after Bernanke speech

Bernanke made it clear that reducing bond purchases doesnt mean rate hikes will soon follow

he said the Fed will keep rates ultra-low for a loooong time

dollar index


gold


S&P 500 e-mini


US 5 yr future


US 10 yr future

[tagalnasaabroad]

It means speculators are again backtracking..bernanke is such a great puppeter..fixed income & bond placements seemed recovering back from plummeting pricings..?

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when Ben said the Fed will soon reduce bond purchases the market interpreted it as the Fed tightening monetary policy which dollar positive

the market has been betting on inflation (shorting the dollar) coz of the Fed's loose monetary policy (zero interest rate policy and quantitative easing)

ZIRP and QE are dollar negative which made the dollar attractive as a funding currency (short dollar long everything else)

when Ben said the Fed will reduce bond purchases the dollar rallied which screwed up the inflation bets

everybody had to unwind positions which caused selloffs across asset classes all over the world

now Ben made it clear the Fed will maintain loose monetary policy for a long time which is dollar negative

so everyone resumed their inflation bets

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yes, Ben the puppetmaster

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effect of Ben's speech on US treasury yields

US 5 yr


US 10 yr


US 30 yr

[Monseratto]

Uls, sino itong conlomerate???

IMF warns of conglomerate?s default | The Manila Times Online

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sounds like San Miguel Corp