World economy talk

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Greece

still no deal with creditors on debt restructure

deal is a pre-condition to get bailout 2.0

Greece needs bailout 2.0 by mid-March (bonds mature)

troika (EU, IMF, ECB) wants Greece to cut minimum wage

naturally Greece politicians refuse. too unpopular

slow motion trainwreck

default near

[Monseratto]

Hirap talaga when you live beyond your means. Either you give it up or someone will take away from you, both painful...

[uls]

Greece got bailout 1.0 coz it had leverage

if Greece defaulted it could bring down eurozone banks. the effect would be equivalent to Lehman bankruptcy or worse

the powers-that-be couldnt let that happen so they bailed out Greece

but since the ECB's 3-yr LTRO eurozone banks are no longer in danger of collapse

Greece default no longer seems so scary

the banks have enough liquidity to survive it

there will be another LTRO this month

Greece has no leverage now

[uls]

Greek parties face Monday EU bailout deadline | Reuters

ATHENS, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Greece's coalition parties must tell the European Union on Monday whether they accept the painful terms of a new bailout deal as EU patience wears thin with political dithering in Athens over implementing reforms.

Technocrat Prime Minister Lucas Papademos put on a brave face as he tried to get leaders of the three parties in his government on Sunday to sign off on the terms of a 130 billion euro ($170 billion) rescue, which Greece needs soon to avoid a chaotic debt default.

Papademos said in a statement the party chiefs - who may face angry voters in parliamentary polls as soon as April - had agreed measures including wage cuts and other reforms as part of spending cuts worth 1.5 percent of gross domestic product.

Greek unions plan 24-hour strike against austerity | Reuters

(Reuters) - Greece's two major labor unions plan a 24-hour strike on Tuesday against austerity measures and reforms demanded by international lenders in exchange for a new bailout package, union officials said on Sunday.

"We are planning a one-day strike on Tuesday," Ilias Iliopoulos, secretary general of public sector union ADEDY, told Reuters. "Despite our sacrifices and despite admitting that the policy mix is wrong, they still ask for more austerity."

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WTI $96+

Brent $116+

spread widens to $20

oil inventory buildup at Cushing (oil from Canada and the US midwest) putting downward pressure on WTI

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EXCLUSIVE: Iran defaults on rice payments to India - traders | Reuters

(Reuters) - Iranian buyers have defaulted on payment for about 200,000 tonnes of rice from their top supplier India, exporters and rice millers said on Tuesday, as trade between the two countries comes under mounting pressure from a new wave of Western sanctions against Tehran.

While a sharply weakening rial has made forward purchases costlier, financial sanctions are making it difficult for Iranian traders to continue using an unofficial route involving middlemen based in Dubai to keep paying Indian suppliers.

The defaults, totalling about $144 million, were for shipments under term deals in October and November free-on-board Indian ports, Indian traders said. Most Indian rice exporters allow 90 days credit.

India is Iran's top rice supplier, accounting for some 70 percent of its annual requirement of 1-1.2 million tonnes of the grain, mainly the aromatic variety called Basmati.

[uls]

so much for easing monetary policy

China can't ease with inflation like this --

The Associated Press: China's inflation rebounds in January to 4.5 pct

BEIJING (AP) — China's inflation rebounded in January as food prices soared, renewing pressure on the communist government to control surging living costs while it tries to boost slowing economic growth.

Consumer prices rose 4.5 percent over a year earlier in January, up from the previous month's 4.1 percent, data showed Thursday. Food prices jumped 10.5 percent, accelerating sharply from December's 9.1 percent rise.

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Greek leaders agree to cut minimum wage by 22 pct | Reuters

Feb 9 (Reuters) - Greek political leaders agreed to cut the minimum wage by 22 percent as part of reforms required for a new bailout for Greece, but managed to prevent holiday bonuses from being scrapped, a Socialist party spokesman said on Thursday.

The Associated Press: Greek unions call two-day strike, protests

ATHENS, Greece (AP) — Greek labor unions have called a two-day general strike starting Friday to protest new cutbacks decided to secure the country's vital rescue loan program.

A senior official in the ADEDY civil servant union says protest rallies will be held outside Parliament in central Athens on the two days, and on Sunday when lawmakers are expected to vote on the new austerity measures.

[Monseratto]

The Greeks have been given a lifeline..

Reuters is reporting that Greece has been given another two weeks to find €300m in alternative savings, if the pensions issue really cannot be resolved.

Grim economic news from Greece this morning -- the unemployment rate hit 20.9% in November, a new record high. Industrial output tumbled by 11.3% in December, compared with a year ago..

Greek youth unemployment rate has now reached 48%, according to this morning's data (see also 10.05am). That's up from 22.4% back in 2008 when the financial crisis began.

[uls]

the demands -- minimum wage cut, public sector layoffs, changes to pensions

looks like di nila magalaw ang pensions. so they gotta look for savings somewhere else

btw, a deal has been reached na daw

update later

[uls]

di talaga magalaw ang pensions

they're cutting somewhere else

ekathimerini.com | PM reaches deal with party leaders over bailout terms

Government sources have revealed that a deal has been reached over how to find the 300 million euros in savings that the troika was demanding to prevent cuts to pensions that three parties in Greece’s coalition government were not willing to accept.

An official in the premier’s office told Kathimerini English Edition that Prime Minister Lucas Papademos had held talks with New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras and a solution had been reached.

Samaras had objected to auxiliary pensions falling below 300 euros per month. He was supported by Popular Orthodox Rally (LAOS) leader Giorgos Karatzaferis.

PASOK chief George Papandreou had objected to any shortfall being made up by cuts to basic pensions.

The government official said that the 300 million euros would come from cuts in defense spending and other areas but did not give any other details.

A statement is expected shortly.

[Ry_Tower]

Greece = base base model car

[uls]

Greece political parties may have agreed on new austerity measures demanded by the troika

but that doesnt mean Greece gets bailout 2.0

not yet

EUROGROUP: Euro Zone Withholds Greek Bailout OK Until Austerity Passed - WSJ.com

BRUSSELS(Dow Jones)--Euro-zone finance ministers withheld approval for a second Greek bailout Thursday, saying the Greek parliament must approve new austerity policies and a package of economic overhauls before the euro zone can back a EUR130 billion ($172.6 billion) loan deal for the government.

Euro-zone ministers will meet again next Wednesday to approve the bailout, provided Greece has taken these steps, European Union economics commissioner Olli Rehn said after a meeting of ministers here.

[Monseratto]

Even if the new austerity package gets passed by the Greek Parliament, Greece has a bad record in execution. Anyone for bailout 100.0?

[uls]

i think Germany wants to push Greece to the point where Greece will give up and leave the euro

members can't kick members out

so Germany is making it very difficult for Greece to get another bailout

so difficult hoping Greece would give up

front page of a Greece daily

δημοκÏ?ατία |



they really hate Angela Merkel no?

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Greek lawmakers approve austerity bill as Athens burns | Reuters

(Reuters) - Greece's parliament approved a deeply unpopular austerity bill Monday to secure a second EU/IMF bailout and avoid national bankruptcy, as buildings burned across central Athens and violence spread around the country.

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Re: Greece (yeah, what else)

so parliament approves the austerity plan but that doesnt mean Greece gets bailout 2.0

not yet

there's still that thing about private sector bondholders taking losses

if bondholders hold out, the troika has another reason not to give Greece the bailout

for now, the market is happy

Apple stock now over $500

[uls]

no bailout yet

the powers-that-be will keep coming up with reasons not to give Greece the bailout

http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedoc...fin/127981.pdf

14 February 2012

Statement by the President of the Eurogroup

I welcome recent further progress made regarding the second adjustment
programme for Greece. In particular, I welcome the agreement reached between the
troika and the Greek government on the programme as well as the positive vote of
the Greek Parliament last Sunday. At the same time, following today’s Eurogroup
Working Group meeting, it has appeared that further technical work between Greece
and the troika is needed in a number of areas, including the closure of the fiscal gap
of € 325 million euro in 2012 and the debt sustainability analysis. Furthermore, I did
not yet receive the required political assurances from the leaders of the Greek
coalition parties on the implementation of the programme. Against this background, I
have decided to convene ministers to a conference call tomorrow in order to discuss
the outstanding issues and prepare the ordinary meeting of the Eurogroup on
Monday, 20th February 2012.

Greece has 14.5 billion euro bond maturing March 20

at the rate things are going i don't think they'll give Greece the bailout money

if i'm wrong... then i'm wrong

[Monseratto]

Greece hasn't found the 350 millions to replace pension cuts.

I notice no european banks are mentioned in the news lately...unlike before. A mere mention of Greece was able to send bank stocks to crash. I guess they're ready this time...

[uls]

yep there's no longer concern of eurozone bank failure

the ECB's 3-yr LTRO eliminated that concern