World economy talk

[uls]

LINKEDIN CORPORATION

[Ry_Tower]

we'll be ok

the Phil. economy is powered by domestic consumption

the Phils. imports almost everything

to pay for imports, the Phils. relies on OFW dollars

so as long as OFWs keep sending dollars, the Phils. will be ok

hope you're right on that one. Still hoping we could have a really stable industry or product for export.

[uls]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlhxdAAH9uo"]YouTube - ‪Spain's plazas rock to the sound of protest‬‏[/ame]

[uls]

Norway is not a member of the EU but contributes to EU member bailouts

http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/politi....10637394.html

google translate:

Norway stops aid payments to Greece

Norway will first stop all further financial aid payments to the highly indebted Greece. would reason that Greece does not fulfill its obligations descendants, the Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Store said on Thursday before the Parliament.

and

IMF suspends inspection

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w...05/2011_391493

The International Monetary Fund added to this pressure through its chief of mission in Greece, Poul Thomsen, who on Thursday informed the government that the latest inspection by the troika, which includes ECB and Commission representatives, would be suspended. Sources said the troika officials told Athens that there was no point in continuing until the government has drawn up further austerity measures and gets the ball rolling on the sale of state assets.

“There is a need for further technical work,” Commission spokesman for economic and monetary affairs Amadeu Altafaj Tardio told Kathimerini.

[uls]

and it gets worse

Fitch downgrades Greece to B+ from BB+; rating watch negative

Fitch says it would consider an extension of maturity of existing bonds to be a default event

[uls]

S&P downgrades French banking group

We consider that French banking group Crédit Agricole (GCA) has a significant sensitivity to Greece's creditworthiness and economic prospects, primarily through subsidiary Emporiki's funding needs and exposure to local credit risk.

We are lowering our ratings on Crédit Agricole S.A. and its related core subsidiaries to 'A+/A-1' from 'AA-/A-1+'.

The stable outlook reflects our view that GCA's businesses are performing well, and that the group has a strong retained earnings capacity which would allow it to absorb possible losses from Greek exposures and build up capital at a pace, and up to a level, which we see as consistent with the 'A+' rating.

[Monseratto]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlhxdAAH9uo

I guess belt tightening isn't one of a spaniard's better trait...besides being lazy.

http://www.swp.ie/news/egypt-style-p...hit-spain/4475

Egypt style protests hit Spain
19/05/2011
Author: Alan Hussey

Protests against Spain's economic crisis gained fresh momentum, as social networking fueled demonstrators to take to the streets of Puerto del Sol plaza, with the local elections just days away. The nature of this peaceful protest, echoes the pro - democracy rallies that has revolutionized Egypt. The protestors, themselves, are demanding jobs, better living standards and a fairer system of democracy.

Spain's unemployment level has reached a new eurozone high of 21.3 percent in the first quarter of the year, with a record 4.9. million people out of work. The rate has been the highest reported since 1997. Joblessness during the January-March period jumped 1% from 20.3% at the end of 2010, which has added extra pressure to Spain as it tries to recover from nearly two years of recession. Jobs have been lost across the entire Spanish economy, with services, manufacturing, agriculture and construction all taking hits. The report, which was released by the government in late April, shows the number of households in which everyone is unemployed has rose sharply from 58,000 to 1.4 million. It is common for young Spaniards to live at home well into their 30s, in part because traditionally it has been so hard for them to find jobs.

[Ry_Tower]

Japan, Greece then Spain, sino susunod?

[uls]

Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain all have the same problem -- huge government debt

the bond market is demanding very high interest rates from them coz of rising default risk

the high interest rates make it more difficult for them to service their debt, which drives them closer to default -- feedback loop

Japan doesnt have that problem even if the Japanese govt also has huge debt

the interest rates on JGBs are very low

[uls]

latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report

speculators cut long positions on oil, euro, gold, silver, copper

[Monseratto]

Ddemanding things from their goverment cannot fulfill, putting their nation's financial standing at risk. Austerity is indeed a very bitter pill for a culture that likes to party...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-13481592

Spain protesters defy ban to remain in Madrid square
21 May 2011 Last updated at 07:50 GMT

Some 25,000 Spanish protesters have defied a government ban and camped out overnight in a square in the capital, Madrid.

The protesters are angry with the government's economic policies and have occupied the area for the past week.

Spain's electoral commission had ordered them to leave ahead of local elections on Sunday.

But as the ban came into effect at midnight, the crowds started cheering and police did not move in.

The protest began six days ago in Madrid's Puerta del Sol as a spontaneous sit-in by young Spaniards frustrated at 45% youth unemployment.

The crowd has grown in the capital and has spread to cities across the country. Hundreds have camped out each night in Madrid.

They are demanding jobs, better living standards, a fairer system of democracy and changes to the Socialist government's austerity plans.

"They want to leave us without public health, without public education, half of our youth is unemployed, they have risen the age of our retirement as well," said protester Natividad Garcia.

"This is an absolute attack on what little state welfare we had."

[Ry_Tower]

latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report

speculators cut long positions on oil, euro, gold, silver, copper

Can we then expect a post in the Oil price thread regarding further cuts in fuel prices?

[uls]

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +++++++++++++++++++

[jhnkvn]

EU markets won't fall too easily. Although alot of people are anxious about the situation there. Portugal is closely watched because most of Portugal's debt is owned by Spain and people wouldn't want Spain to be bailing out... there's just too much financial losses there with its GDP the highest among all four PIIGS.

And am I the only one who laughed when somebody mentioned the rising deficit of US would lead them to bail-out? Bailing out the US.. lol..

[uls]

EU markets won't fall too easily. Although alot of people are anxious about the situation there. Portugal is closely watched because most of Portugal's debt is owned by Spain and people wouldn't want Spain to be bailing out... there's just too much financial losses there with its GDP the highest among all four PIIGS.

And am I the only one who laughed when somebody mentioned the rising deficit of US would lead them to bail-out? Bailing out the US.. lol..

default on Greece and Ireland palang will send shockwaves throughout the global financial system

direct hit on European banks

France's Credit Agricole was just downgraded by S&P coz of significant exposure to Greece debt

banks are interconnected. they're counterparties to each other. they lend money to each other. so when one takes a hit, the counterparty also takes a hit

that's why the sovereign debt problem in Europe is potentially a global problem

[uls]

a report out of Switzerland that Greece govt has less than 2 months of cash left

http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/wirtsc....10657218.html

google translate:

Greece does not have money to 18 July

(Sda / dpa) If experts from the EU, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) does not go ahead for the next installment of the bailout package totaling 12 billion euros by the end of June give, then Greece will be on 18 July will become insolvent, as the conservative Journal "Kathimerini" reported.

[Monseratto]

a report out of Switzerland that Greece govt has less than 2 months of cash left

http://www.nzz.ch/nachrichten/wirtsc....10657218.html

google translate:

Should the EU bailout a bottomless pit?

[uls]

Should the EU bailout a bottomless pit?

question:

will the EU allow restructuring?

a restructuring will hurt the bondholders -- the banks

if they'll protect the banks, the EU will keep on bailing out Greece

[tidus1203]

Do the right thing. Let them restructure... Yes painful for the bondholders but who said buying bonds was risk free. The bondholders know the risk and it didn't turn out the way they wanted so they have to pay the price... That's just free markets system of flushing the crap. And they are preventing the crap to be released puro na lang Imodium...

[uls]

euro liquidation