World economy talk

[uls]

yep, PIMCO's Total Return Fund -- $236,000,000,000 in assets -- the world's largest bond fund

31% of its assets in now in cash -- $73B

cash is now the largest holding, next is mortgage-backed securities at 28%

[uls]

demand destruction

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42531318

Drivers Starting to Cut Back as Gasoline Prices Keep Rising

With the price of gas above $3.50 a gallon in all but one state, there are signs that Americans are cutting back on driving, reversing a steady increase in demand for fuel as the economy improves.

Gas sales have fallen for five straight weeks, the first time that has happened since November, according to MasterCard SpendingPulse, which tracks spending at 140,000 service stations nationwide.

Before the decline, demand was increasing for two months. Some analysts had expected the trend to continue because the economic recovery is picking up, adding 216,000 jobs in March.

[tidus1203]

If the speculators still want to push it up thinking its still going up. Demand destruction has no effect to the price...

[eld]

Remember, kids. The rulers of the world always announce first what they're gonna do next:

Oil could hit $200-$300 on Saudi unrest-Yamani

* Political discontent in Saudi not resolved-Yamani

* "Surprises on the horizon" Yamani predicts

* Consultant says Saudi a "time bomb", change inevitable

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/0...7340MU20110405

[Monseratto]

African Union pushing peace plan in Libya. Quadaffy tentatively agrees w/ ceasefire...

US$5.00 gains in crude wiped out, but don't any expect a rollback soon...

NYMEX


Gold

[tidus1203]

Yeah walang rollback yan, naghahabol parin ang local gas companies. The commodity markets move much much faster...

[uls]

Remember, kids. The rulers of the world always announce first what they're gonna do next:



http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/0...7340MU20110405

it's a threat to preserve power

the Saudis are basically telling the West -- "You cannot afford an uprising in Saudi Arabia. It is in your best interest that stability is maintained in Saudi Arabia. it is in your best interest that the Saudi ruling family stay in power. It is in your best interest the you support the Saudi ruling family."

the Saudis know $200 oil will send the world economy into recession. nobody wants that

they're reiterating the importance of stability in their country. that the West should not support any uprising and allow overthrow of govt in their country

Great way to preserve power -- scare the West with "$200-$300" oil

[uls]

gold, oil fell coz the dollar stabilized

the dollar was in freefall late last week when there was threat of US govt shutdown

shutdown averted

USD index

[uls]

African Union pushing peace plan in Libya. Quadaffy tentatively agrees w/ ceasefire...

for Gaddafi, ceasefire = regroup

[Ry_Tower]

Yeah walang rollback yan, naghahabol parin ang local gas companies. The commodity markets move much much faster...

Subscribing, grabe na effect ng rising commodities sa P&L namin. Saudi pa susunod? tsk tsk

[uls]

here's what could have caused the selloff in oil last night

Goldman Sachs has something called a "CCCP basket"

it's a trade they recommended to clients -- take long positions on crude oil, copper, cotton/soybeans, platinum

the trade was first recommended on Dec 1 2010

with the recent run-up in prices, Goldman has recommended clients to take profits

taking profit now = 25% return

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...73A7ZL20110411

Goldman spooks oil speculators with call to take profit

(Reuters) - Long-term commodity bull Goldman Sachs (GS.N) warned clients on Monday to lock-in trading profits before oil and other markets reverse, with the bank's estimates suggesting speculators are boosting crude prices as much as $27 a barrel.

Traders said the call from one of the biggest banks in commodities contributed to a near 3 percent slide in U.S. oil futures, on expectations the bank's numerous clients could close out positions with U.S. crude prices up 20 percent for the year so far.

Goldman said investors should close the "CCCP basket" trade it recommended in December, which encompasses bets on rising oil, copper and other commodity prices. The trade has returned clients 25 percent in four months.

[Ry_Tower]

it's a threat to preserve power

the Saudis are basically telling the West -- "You cannot afford an uprising in Saudi Arabia. It is in your best interest that stability is maintained in Saudi Arabia. it is in your best interest that the Saudi ruling family stay in power. It is in your best interest the you support the Saudi ruling family."

the Saudis know $200 oil will send the world economy into recession. nobody wants that

they're reiterating the importance of stability in their country. that the West should not support any uprising and allow overthrow of govt in their country

Great way to preserve power -- scare the West with "$200-$300" oil

Any possibility that the west will grow tired of this BS and suddenly decide to out a puppet gov't much like in Iraq? Or the west is now divided in interest that maintaining the status quo woudl be the best bet?

[uls]

Subscribing, grabe na effect ng rising commodities sa P&L namin. Saudi pa susunod? tsk tsk

margin compression

high cost of raw materials eats into profit margin

[uls]

Any possibility that the west will grow tired of this BS and suddenly decide to out a puppet gov't much like in Iraq? Or the west is now divided in interest that maintaining the status quo woudl be the best bet?

for now the West will definitely support the Saudi king

Saudi Arabia is too big to fail

[Monseratto]

May panic hoarding ng bigas because of this article. NICA denies they have anything to do with this. Malacanang is pissed...

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquire...of-rice-crisis

Aquino warned of rice crisis

By Tony S. Bergonia
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:05:00 04/12/2011

MANILA, Philippines—Rising costs of basic commodities and services in the country and a shrinking rice supply have become a national security concern, according to a report by the National Intelligence Coordinating Agency (NICA).

The report, prepared on Feb. 20 and a copy of which was furnished President Benigno Aquino III, said one of the possible flash points being watched by the local intelligence community was the supply and prices of rice worldwide.

Soaring prices of cereals due to production shortfalls led to food riots in several countries and toppled a government in 2008, while prompting the Philippines to buy huge volumes of rice, which it sold to the poor at a discount.

A top security analyst, who helped prepare the NICA report, said early signs of unrest as a result of the price increases this year were being watched closely.


The NICA report said the biggest question was whether the Philippine government could afford the costs of importing rice, strained as it is with expenses incurred in repatriating Filipino workers from troubled countries in the Middle East and North Africa.

The report said “there is a growing pattern of rice-importing nations already purchasing or locking up the dwindling supply of rice in the face of lower production of both rice and wheat.” This could lead to higher costs of imported rice, it said.

The report said Indonesia, which did not import rice in 2008 and 2009, started importing 1.08 million MT of rice late last year and early this year from two of the Philippines’ top rice producing neighbors—Vietnam and Thailand.

Indonesia plans to import a total of 3.2 million MT of rice this year, the report said.

Even one of the world’s poorest countries, Bangladesh, recently entered into a rice supply deal with Vietnam.

Malaysia, the report said, had “quietly locked up” 800,000 MT of rice from Vietnam. South Korea is also importing rice from the same sources as the Philippines.

One of the most worrisome developments, the report said, was China’s purchase of rice from Vietnam and Burma (Myanmar).

“The actions of these other countries pose a great danger to our food security as there is a possibility that they will soak up the supply available for rice or if there would be remaining supplies, these would be very expensive,” the NICA report said.

Left behind

The report said the Philippines was being left behind by other countries. “(A)nd the danger of a food crisis in this country is reaching the point that is has now become an issue of national security.”

“What is more troubling is our very own weather is contributing to lower rice production,” the report said. Floods in the Visayas and Mindanao recently “while not significantly reducing potential harvests still add up to the shortfall for national consumption.”

The report warned that a shortage may open the door for “private traders ... to create an artificial supply-demand inequality that could lead to higher prices.”

The report said rice importation should be protected from kickbacks. A shortage will benefit only a rice cartel that continues to operate in the country, it said.

The report stressed the need for Mr. Aquino to require the NFA to submit a detailed report on rice availability and measures being undertaken to ensure supply. With a report from Kristine L. Alave

[tidus1203]

margin compression

high cost of raw materials eats into profit margin

And look out for wage increases... Looks like its high time to raise price again, no choice...

[Ry_Tower]

And look out for wage increases... Looks like its high time to raise price again, no choice...

nag-price increas na nga mga suppliers/principal namin la pa yang wage increase na yan. Obviously, hahabol na naman profit margin mga companies by last quarter at least para medyo maganda pasko nila. ahihi

[uls]

pag nagtaas ka naman ng presyo ng finished products mo para ma-maintain ang iyong profit margin, baka di na afford ng customers mo at hihina sales mo

[tidus1203]

Ayun na nga uls yung isa pang problema. So we try as much as possible not to raise prices pero sometimes walang magagawa eh...

[eld]

May panic hoarding ng bigas because of this article. NICA denies they have anything to do with this. Malacanang is pissed...

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquire...of-rice-crisis

What was the gov't that was toppled in 08?