World economy talk

[uls]

China CPI 4.6%

2010 GDP 10.3%

[uls]

a few posts ago, i said something about the spread between the price of Brent crude and WTI

as of now, the spread is $7

usually the spread isnt that big

people have been trying come up with an explanation

some say it's coz of the higher quality of North Sea crude

here's an explanation that makes more sense -- somebody's buying up so much North Sea crude that it's creating shortage which has driven up the price

UPDATE 1-Oil trader takes control of 10 N.Sea oil cargoes
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE70H2C220110118

LONDON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Oil trader Hetco has taken control of the first eight North Sea Forties crude oil cargoes loading in February and two Brent cargoes, giving it significant influence over the spot market, trade sources said on Tuesday.

Brent and Forties are both part of the BFOE North Sea benchmark, which comprises Brent BRT-, Forties FOT-E, Oseberg OSE-E and Ekofisk EKO-E and acts as a basis for the settlement of ICE Brent crude futures LCOc1.

The BFOE benchmark is also used to value millions of barrels per day of physical crude oil in the Atlantic basin.

Hetco officials were not available for immediate comment. A Hetco trader, contacted by Reuters, declined to discuss the company's trading strategy.

Hetco is an independent trading company partly owned by and backed by U.S. integrated oil and gas company Hess Corp. (HES.N). It has been active in the North Sea oil market for several years, traders said.

Energy and metals market reporting agency Platts, part of publishers McGraw-Hill (MHP.N), which has for decades provided price assessments for North Sea crudes, has changed the basis for its benchmarks several times in an attempt to minimise the potential impact of supply squeezes.

North Sea oil traders described Hetco's acquisition of the February cargoes as the basis for a "trading play" and said that the company had been actively offering February Forties cargoes on Tuesday at prices above the last set of deals.

"If other companies cannot cover their positions, they are going to have to pay up," said one trader at a large U.S.-owned house, who declined to be identified.

Hetco now has control of 30 percent of the Forties and Brent programme for February -- eight of the 25 February Forties cargoes, traders said, as well as two of the eight Brent cargoes loading next month.

Forties cargoes are typically of 600,000 barrels each.

At around $98 per barrel, each Forties cargo is now worth almost $60 million.

[Monseratto]

[tidus1203]

Obama listening to his bankers...

[uls]

China overtakes S Korea as world’s largest shipbuilder
http://cnbusinessnews.com/china-over...t-shipbuilder/

China surpassed South Korea to become the world’s largest shipbuilder in 2010 in terms of shipbuilding capacity and new orders, according to recently released statistics from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information.

The statistics show that from January to December 2010, China’s shipyards finished building 65.6 million deadweight tons, an increase of 54.6 percent year on year. They received new orders exceeding 75 million deadweight tons, nearly triple the amount of a year earlier.

The great development of the shipbuilding industry in recent years can be mostly attributed to the increasing capacity requirements due to economic growth, said an expert from the economic research center of China’s shipbuilding industry.

China’s shipbuilding enterprises are mainly distributed among Jiangsu, Shanghai, Zhejing, Shandong and Guangdong, with Jiangsu ranking first.

[uls]

fear of China tightening

NYMEX crude


CRB index

[safeorigin]

hmmm... metals seem to be on a down trend since it went out of the triangle

so I guess people should go long instead of short for now?

[uls]

precious metals have been trading like high beta stocks

where high beta stocks go, so go precious metals

compare SLV (silver ETF) to AAPL (Apple stock)



and also, watch the long bond

as yield rises, precious metals fall

[safeorigin]

ah thanks

I read about Donchian Channels and other indicators kasi

[uls]

mahilig ba kayo sa chocolate?

the world's biggest producer of cocoa halts exports

Ivory Coast Cocoa Exporters Told to Stop Shipments for a Month by Ouattara
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-0...-ouattara.html

Cocoa exporters in Ivory Coast, the world’s biggest producer of the beans, have been ordered to suspend all cocoa and coffee shipments for a month, according to the government of president-elect Alassane Ouattara.

The halt in exports runs from tomorrow to Feb. 23, according to an e-mailed statement from the office of Prime Minister Guillaume Soro and signed by Ouattara’s Justice Minister Jeannot Ahoussou. Cocoa rose to an 11-month high in New York on Jan. 21 on speculation that steps to remove the incumbent president will disrupt exports.

“Last week we had a meeting with the main cocoa exporters in Ivory Coast and they have agreed to suspend exports for a month,” said Malick Tohé, an adviser to Ouattara’s government, in a phone interview from Abidjan today. All exporters have agreed to halt shipments, he said.

The export ban is meant to cut off the rival government of incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo from export revenues of the beans, Tohe said. Ouattara’s government “‘does not have control over exports revenues right now,” he said. “They go straight to the National Coffee and Cocoa Management Committee, which is in the hands of Gbagbo,” he said.

[uls]

blast off!

cocoa

[safeorigin]

hmmm... magaya kaya yan sa tunisia?

[uls]

EUR/USD

[Monseratto]

Unleaded Gasoline is now P50/liter...

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquire...-diesel-prices

Oil companies jack up gasoline, diesel prices
By Amy R. Remo, Riza T. Olchondra
Philippine Daily Inquirer
First Posted 01:26:00 01/25/2011

Effective Tuesday, prices of diesel will cost an additional P1 a liter, kerosene by 75 centavos a liter and gasoline by 50 centavos a liter—the third round of fuel price increases since the start of the year and the fifth round since last month.

Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corp. and PTT Philippines disclosed the increases to the Department of Energy (DoE) Monday. Other oil firms had yet to make their announcements as of press time.

The fuel price hike came in the wake of an increase of at least 33 percent in taxi fares. However, the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board (LTFRB) said taxis must install receipt-issuing meters before they can charge higher fares.

The previous two fuel price increases this month had raised prices of gasoline by a total of P1.25 a liter and of diesel by a combined P1.25 a liter.

Before Tuesday’s oil price hike, prices of unleaded gasoline with E-10 ranged from P46 a liter to as much as P53 a liter, according to the energy department.

Diesel prices had already risen to between P38 and P41 a liter and kerosene to between P46 and P52 a liter as of last week.

Last month, fuel prices went up twice for a total of P2.25 a liter for gasoline; P2 a liter for diesel; and P1.75 a liter for kerosene.

Rising int’l prices

Shell said the latest oil price increases reflected the upward movement in international fuel prices last week compared with the previous week.

Energy Undersecretary Jose Layug Jr. Monday confirmed by phone that oil companies would have to reflect these increases as prices of diesel based on the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) benchmark for refined petroleum products had risen by about $2 a barrel.

Prices of MOPS-based gasoline increased by more than a dollar.

Layug said the price increases were within the energy department’s computations.

Formula

A $3 change in MOPS translates into a P1 increase or decrease in domestic oil prices, according to the energy department’s formula.

“Although simplified and easy to calculate, this formula has many assumed variables such that a significant change in any variable will no longer make the formula reliable,” the DoE said.

Data from the department showed that the price of Dubai crude averaged $92 a barrel as of Jan. 24, up from last month’s $89-a-barrel average.

$100-mark breached

The price of unleaded gasoline based on the MOPS benchmark for refined petroleum products showed that it had breached the $100-a-barrel mark, averaging $107 in the Jan. 1-24 period, up from $102 last December.

MOPS-based diesel prices rose to $109 a barrel from the December 2010 average of $104.

Energy Secretary Jose Rene D. Almendras has warned that domestic oil prices may continue to rise this year, especially if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) keeps its current oil production levels.

When demand rises while production remains stable, a tightness in supply may be felt and, most likely, will lead to spikes in crude oil prices, he said.

[tidus1203]

Good! I remember in 2008 when fuel prices where at this level, traffic lessened... I can live with it, but I know a lot of people can't and will start using public transport nyahahahaha

[Monseratto]

For sure those noisy militants and oppurtunist politicians won't be far behind...

[uls]

UK Q4 GDP minus 0.5%, expected +0.5%.

[uls]

hmmm... magaya kaya yan sa tunisia?

inspired by what happened in Tunisia, rioting in Egypt

update: twitter blocked in Egypt

[uls]

gold


nymex crude

[uls]

update Egypt:

Egypt president's son, family flee to Britain
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/w...ow/7365922.cms

CAIRO: Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak's son, who is considered as his successor, has fled to Britain along with his family, a US-based Arabic website reported.

The plane with Gamal Mubarak, his wife and daughter on board left for London Tuesday from an airport in western Cairo, the website Akhbar al-Arab said.

The report came as violent unrest broke out in Cairo and other Egyptian cities and hundreds of thousands of people reportedly took to the streets in a Tunisia-inspired day of revolt.