World economy talk

[uls]

Babalik ba ang 44.XX na dollar?


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^^

i think it will

[Lady Bathory]

sometimes haha


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[Lady Bathory]

Bond investors do not see strong growth. They do not see inflation. Wage growth is needed to fuel inflation but wages are stagnant. Bond yields are falling because inflation expectations are low. For bond yields to rise you need a few months of data that shows inflation is rising which should boost inflation expectations.


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[uls]

speaking of inflation...

April US CPI 2.0% vs 2.0% exp y/y. Prior 1.5%
0.3% vs 0.3% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%
Core 1.8% vs 1.7% exp y/y. Prior 1.7%
0.2% vs 0.1% exp m/m. Prior 0.2%

rising

even core is rising

[uls]

Re: US inflation

rising

Dollar Gains on Higher U.S. CPI - WSJ

The Labor Department reported that the consumer-price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% in May from a month earlier, the fastest rise since February 2013. Prices climbed 0.3% in April and 0.2% in March.

Core prices, which don't include food and energy, rose 0.3%, the fastest pace since August 2011. Economists had forecast an increase of 0.2% in both overall and core prices in May from April.

[uls]

pricing in a rate hike -- 5 consecutive days selloff Phil. stocks

[Lady Bathory]

The market waits for the Federal Reserve decision and Janet Yellen’s press conference. Given recent economic data there could be some indication that policy tightening would come sooner than expected.

[uls]

[uls]

Bond investors do not see strong growth. They do not see inflation. Wage growth is needed to fuel inflation but wages are stagnant. Bond yields are falling because inflation expectations are low. For bond yields to rise you need a few months of data that shows inflation is rising which should boost inflation expectations.


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Bond yields are falling coz bond bears are forced to unwind short positions

all that buying is driving up prices / driving down yields

[uls]

quoting The Bathory

page 819:

Bond investors do not see strong growth. They do not see inflation. Wage growth is needed to fuel inflation but wages are stagnant. Bond yields are falling because inflation expectations are low. For bond yields to rise you need a few months of data that shows inflation is rising which should boost inflation expectations.


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page 821:

Long-term interest rates are falling because of low inflation caused by spare economic capacity. The market now believes the U.S. economy is in secular stagnation. When Ben Bernanke announced the gradual withdrawal of monetary stimulus a year ago, the market bet on rising inflation which caused bond yields to surge. Now the market is betting inflation will stay low because of the persistent slack in the U.S. economy. The market knows the Fed cannot raise rates as long as there's slack in the economy holding down inflation. The U.S. economy took such a big hit in 2008/2009 that it will take much longer to see rising prices, rising wages and rising interest rates.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/yellen...141202972.html

JACKSON HOLE Wyo. (Reuters) - U.S. labour markets remain hampered by the effects of the Great Recession and the Federal Reserve should move cautiously in determining when interest rates should rise, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Friday in a defence of her policy approach.

In a speech at a central banking conference here, Yellen laid out in detail why she feels the unemployment rate alone is inadequate to evaluate the strength of the U.S. job market.

The jobless rate has fallen faster than expected, but Yellen said the economic disruption of the last five years has left millions of workers sidelined, discouraged, or stuck in part time jobs - facts that are not captured in the unemployment rate alone.

Judging whether the economy is close to full employment is "complicated by ongoing shifts in the structure of the labour market and the possibility that the severe recession caused persistent changes in the labour market's functioning," Yellen said in the opening address at the Fed's annual economic policy conference.

"Assessments of the degree of remaining slack in the labour market need to become more nuanced because of considerable uncertainty about the level of employment consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate" of stable prices and full employment, she added.

In such an environment "there is no simple recipe for appropriate policy," Yellen said, arguing for a "pragmatic" approach that allows officials room to evaluate data as it arrives without committing to a preset policy path.

Yellen's speech included lengthy references to the possibility that labour markets may in fact be tighter then they seem, and the Fed may be at risk of having to raise rates sooner and faster than expected.

But overall the remarks marked a defence of her basic premise that the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession damaged the economy and work force in ways that are not fully understood.

[Monseratto]

Nice to have a whole plane to your self when travelling...

Malaysia Airlines Burns $2.16 Million in Cash a Day
August 22, 2014

Passengers are Stunned by the Large Empty Planes Upon Boarding.

The title photo above posted on Twitter claiming to show a Malaysia Airlines flight from Australia last Friday paints a poignant picture of the business reality the southeast Asian air carrier is undergoing. Rows and rows of empty seats are seen, and only three passengers are on board. Just last week on August 15, 2014, Ricardo Goncalves exclaims, "Picture sent to me of a Malaysia Airlines flight out of Australia today to Asia!" Photo Credit: news.com.au

Australian News Service (news.com.au) reports today: Customer have been running away from the southeast air carrier's brand for months now, as represented by these consumer sentiments on Twitter:

"Can confirm my mother arrived in KL [Kuala Lumpur] in one piece after flying Malaysia Airlines. But plane so empty she had three seats to herself in A380," says Julie MacFarlane on April 25, 2014, over a month after the disappearance of flight MH370 on March 8, 2014.

"At Penang Airport, flying to Kuala Lumpur. The Malaysia Airlines check-in line is empty as a Richard Marx concert," says another more recent consumer on July 24, 2014 in the aftermath of the downing of flight MH17 on July 17, 2014.

Additionally, a family is thrilled to be flying on their own private jet airliner, upon arrival to their seats, tweeting last week on August 17, 2014, "Thank you *MAS it is an amazing surprise!"



"In a bid to lure passengers back on board, the airline has boosted the commission it’s offering travel agents in Australia. The commission rate nearly doubled, rising from 6 percent to 11 percent for flights leaving the nation," reports the Australian News Service (news.com.au).

https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/...-in-cash-a-day

[uls]

US dollar round trip

[Lady Bathory]

The U.S. dollar is overbought and due for a correction.

[Lady Bathory]

Those shorts are going to be flushed out and yields will stablize.


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[uls]

dollar index hovering a bit above 80


US 10Y yield stabilizes for now

[uls]

slow start to the week

Fed minutes on Wednesday

expect the usual -- low rates for an extended period to fix unemployment

[uls]

has anyone checked the price of Brent crude?

this is what traders call "geopolitical risk premium"

In Libya, fighting sweeps across Tripoli following Behghazi violence - CNN.com

Tripoli, Libya (CNN) -- Fierce fighting swept across the Libyan capital of Tripoli on Sunday, a short time after armed men stormed the country's interim parliament. The violence appeared to be some of the worst since the 2011 revolution that ousted longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi.

At least two people were killed and 66 were injured, according to the Health Ministry.

[uls]

another slow day

the only mover:

[Ry_Tower]

has anyone checked the price of Brent crude?

this is what traders call "geopolitical risk premium"

In Libya, fighting sweeps across Tripoli following Behghazi violence - CNN.com

Oo nga, taas na nama eh.

[uls]

slow start to the week

Fed minutes on Wednesday

expect the usual -- low rates for an extended period to fix unemployment

Fed Officials Tussle Over Labor Market Slack - WSJ.com

Minutes of the Fed's April 29-30 policy meeting showed a lengthy debate on this subject and suggested labor-market slack will become an important battleground in the central bank's coming discussions about how long to continue its low-interest-rate policies.

Many economists believe lots of slack in the labor market—large numbers of unemployed or underutilized workers—means the Fed can keep interest rates very low to help boost economic growth without generating high inflation. Conversely, they think that if there isn't much slack, or that it decreases rapidly, the central bank should raise rates more quickly to keep price pressures under control.

The unemployment rate fell to 6.3% in April, not far from its long-run average of 5.8%. Ms. Yellen has argued other measures—such as the nation's many part-time workers who want full-time work—represent slack holding wages down. While that view is broadly held at the Fed, the minutes showed she faced some pushback at the last meeting.