World economy talk

[uls]

cast of Jersey shore at the NYSE

[uls]

oil fell $2 last night

NYMEX crude

[tidus1203]

Commodities did poorly yesterday except for some agricultural ones... No matter, its just a correction... Commodity prices are well supported...

[tidus1203]

More unemployment problems in the US...

75% of US metro areas have unemployment rising...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Unempl...&asset=&ccode=

[niky]

Damn. Bad for them. Good for us... keeps oil low.

*uls: what's up with gold? Why's it going down? Always thought gold was ultra-stable...

[tidus1203]

Personally I don't think there is anything unusual with the gold price movement, markets move like waves so that's normal... The important thing is the buying support is very much intact and solid...

[uls]

niky,

being long gold has become an overcrowded trade

a correction was bound to happen sooner or later

and there's talk some big hedge fund has been liquidating sizeable gold ETF holdings (GLD)



they say it's John Paulson

his funds have been facing redemptions

so he has to liquidate

[tidus1203]

To give you a better view how Gold is faring in one year... Notice as the price falls, volume is declining? Classic correction, not a lot of people selling thus the volume is low...

[uls]

i think we're seeing the unwinding of the long gold short euro trade

remember a few weeks back when there was maximum fear over the sovereign debt crisis in Europe

the euro kept falling and gold kept rising

i posted some links re gold coin dealers running out of stock

i think that's when the long gold short euro trade was peaking

now we are seeing that whole trade unwind

the euro has now risen to 1.30 from a low of 1.18 some weeks back

[tidus1203]

As unemployment is rising in majority of US metro areas, so is FORECLOSURE...

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Households across a majority of large U.S. cities received more foreclosure warnings in the first six months of this year than in the first half of 2009, new data shows.
The trend is the latest sign that the nation's foreclosure crisis is worsening as homeowners battling high unemployment, slow job growth and an uneven rebound in home prices continue to fall behind on their mortgage payments.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Forecl...&asset=&ccode=

[uls]

^^^

one chart says it all



http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...-crisis/60477/

Firms have trimmed workforces by more than called for based on declines in sales alone, and having created a deep pool of unemployed labour, firms now have the leverage to demand higher levels of productivity from remaining workers without paying higher wages...

US unemployment will stay high for a long time

[tidus1203]

And think of those companies making money, they are not mom and pop small businesses who cater to the community they are big WALL STREET listed companies who have operations abroad. Places like China, India and Brazil. That's where they are getting their profits!

[uls]

yep

it's a chicken or egg situation

companies won't hire until consumers start spending

consumers won't spend if they don't have jobs

the US economy is stuck

[niky]

Ah... now I see it... that spike at the end of uls' gold graph shows where the fund poured a ton of volume into the market, huh?

-

Unemployment high... and will stay high. I don't see consumer spending or manufacturing in the US recovering to pre-crisis bubble levels... (and we all know that it hit those levels only because people were spending OPM*) so some of those lost jobs are permanently gone.

Gone to China, that is.



*Other People's Money

[tidus1203]

yep

it's a chicken or egg situation

companies won't hire until consumers start spending

consumers won't spend if they don't have jobs

the US economy is stuck

And ever since government is stepping up to be the consumer by stimulus. Pero its not working and their debt is piling...

I did say Obama is a one term president right? I stick with that...

[uls]

niky:

Ah... now I see it... that spike at the end of uls' gold graph shows where the fund poured a ton of volume into the market, huh?

some of John Paulson's funds lost a lot of money in June

this led to huge redemptions at the end of June

in the chart, there was a large volume sell off (and price drop) at the beginning of July



and gold kept falling since then

herd mentality

[uls]

Unemployment high... and will stay high. I don't see consumer spending or manufacturing in the US recovering to pre-crisis bubble levels... (and we all know that it hit those levels only because people were spending OPM*) so some of those lost jobs are permanently gone.

yep

definitely

some of those jobs are permanently gone

tidus:

And ever since government is stepping up to be the consumer by stimulus. Pero its not working and their debt is piling...

diba meron "tea party" movement ngayon sa States?

it's gaining strength

---

the Republicans could win big in the Nov elections

[tidus1203]

The Republicans are also not the answer, they created this mess under the leadership of Bush. The answer is RON PAUL and his Treasury Secretary Peter Schiff!

[uls]

The Republicans are also not the answer, they created this mess under the leadership of Bush. The answer is RON PAUL and his Treasury Secretary Peter Schiff!

haha

the Austrians hehe



nakakaawa ang US no?

wala sila choice

kung hindi Republican, Democrat

di tulad natin

a dozen presidential candidates to choose from

a dozen political parties haha

[tidus1203]

A dozen of politcal parties who have the same views. To enrich oneself at the expense of the nation! No thanks sa US system na lang ako maskin deadlock din ang pulitika doon...

Seriously the Austrians would make the painful choice but the right choice.