World economy talk

[uls]

USD index


NYMEX crude


Gold

[tidus1203]

Hey uls do you think I should risk a small amount buying BP shares? Wala lang, sobrang bugbog na talaga and medyo skeptical ako if BP will go under even with the oil spill crisis. I mean if it really goes down someone will likely buy it right? Dami nyang assets eh...

[Monseratto]

Better fill up my tanks later...

[uls]

Hey uls do you think I should risk a small amount buying BP shares? Wala lang, sobrang bugbog na talaga and medyo skeptical ako if BP will go under even with the oil spill crisis. I mean if it really goes down someone will likely buy it right? Dami nyang assets eh...

tingin ko BP will survive

yes, sobra bugbog na ang BP stock

it's cheap already

i think the selling is an overreaction

as long as it doesnt make new lows, the selling is probably overdone

it has upside

if you have a long term outlook, and if you're brave, BUY

[uls]

but in the near term, there's a lot of uncertainty

nobody knows when the situation will improve

the oil is still gushing

BP has spent $2B already

we don't know how much more BP is gonna spend

as i said above, if you're brave tidus...

[tidus1203]

Well anyone is brave with a few hundred shares... Sige bili ako konti like today pero pag nahulog sa $25 benta ko na...

[uls]

[uls]

check out what happened to NYMEX NG (natural gas)

[uls]

short covering rally

after falling to 1.19 earlier this month, the euro rallied all the way to 1.24, hit a ceiling, then resumes decline

[uls]

last night:

No surprise the FOMC kept rates unchanged

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsev.../20100623a.htm

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually. Household spending is increasing but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Financial conditions have become less supportive of economic growth on balance, largely reflecting developments abroad. Bank lending has continued to contract in recent months. Nonetheless, the Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability, although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be moderate for a time.

Prices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months, and underlying inflation has trended lower. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable, inflation is likely to be subdued for some time.

The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions, including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations, are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and will employ its policy tools as necessary to promote economic recovery and price stability.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; James Bullard; Elizabeth A. Duke; Donald L. Kohn; Sandra Pianalto; Eric S. Rosengren; Daniel K. Tarullo; and Kevin M. Warsh. Voting against the policy action was Thomas M. Hoenig, who believed that continuing to express the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted because it could lead to a build-up of future imbalances and increase risks to longer-run macroeconomic and financial stability, while limiting the Committee’s flexibility to begin raising rates modestly.

cheap money continues

cheap dollars, buy stocks, buy euros

euro and stocks bounce

[tidus1203]

Wala yan as long as walang nangyayari sa job market rates will continue to be very low...

[uls]

yep

they're looking at capacity utilization, employment, inflation for signals when they're gonna raise rates

all 3 are saying NOT YET

[uls]

this monday, Goldman Sachs advised clients to short the USD against the Philippine Peso coz they think the Yuan revaluation will cause other Asian currencies to strengthen

Trade Update: Stopped out of short $/PHP after stalled CNY appreciation and rising risk aversion

On Monday we opened a short $/PHP recommendation, assuming that Asian currencies will appreciate in sync with further CNY strength following the Chinese announcement over the weekend. However since we initiated, $/CNY has basically not moved and many Asian currencies have given back initial gains. A distinctive risk off flavour for most of the week added to the pressure on pro-cyclical Asian currencies.

$/PHP closed London at 46.10, above our stop and leading to a potential loss of 0.8%. We remain short $/CNY via 1yr NDFs and short $/KRW.

GS FX Research

let's see how that piece of advice has been performing



FAIL

coz the CNY didnt rise

it actually fell



whoever followed Goldman's advice just lost money

[uls]

this is Sparta

Greece CDS is now 1126bp according to CMA DataVision

http://www.cmavision.com/market-data

that means you have to pay over $1M/year for 5 years to insure $10M worth of Greece govt bonds against default

[uls]

this is Sparta... For sale



Greece is gonna sell or lease out some of its islands

gotta pay debt

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010...e-save-economy

The Guardian has learned that an area in Mykonos, one of Greece's top tourist destinations, is one of the sites for sale. The area is one-third owned by the government, which is looking for a buyer willing to inject capital and develop a luxury tourism complex, according to a source close to the negotiations.

Only 227 Greek islands are populated and the decision to press ahead with potential sales has also been driven by the inability of the state to develop basic infrastructure, or police most of its islands. The hope is that the sale or long-term lease of some islands will attract investment that will generate jobs and taxable income.

[uls]

[uls]

US 10 yr yield

[uls]

something's brewing

more than a week ago, a US carrier group crossed the Suez Canal on their way to the Red Sea

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...d-sea-1.297068

Published 13:16 19.06.10 Latest update 13:16 19.06.10
More than twelve United States Naval warships and at least one Israeli ship crossed the Suez Canal towards the Red Sea on Friday, British Arabic Language newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi reported Saturday.

here's something from Statfor

as of June 23, the Eisenhower and Truman carriers are in the Persian Gulf

the Truman carrier group was the one that crossed the Suez Canal

it joined the Eisenhower in the Gulf

[Monseratto]

Recovery isn't going smoothly...

NEW YORK (AP) -- A darkening view of the economy sent bond market interest rates to their lowest level in 14 months and kept many investors out of the stock market.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, considered a benchmark because it's used to set rates on consumer loans including mortgages, fell to 3.03 percent Monday, its lowest point since late April 2009. At that time, the markets were still recovering from the devastation of the financial crisis and collapse in stocks.

Investors felt safer making their bets in the bond market and many avoided any kind of stock trades. All the major stock indexes fell by single digits. The New York Stock Exchange traded less than a billion shares on its selling floor, a number that's more likely to be seen in August or late December than in June.


The New York Stock Exchange traded less than a billion shares on its selling floor, a number that's more likely to be seen in August or late December than in June.

[tidus1203]

How should it be? Wala namang big gains in job demand, the ultimate indicator of any real economic recovery...