World economy talk

[tidus1203]

Wow thanks to yesterday's route, QID is doing real well... Now meron na akong pang Jollibee for lunch and maybe dinner later

[Monseratto]

Oil movement last night.




Petron, Chevron, Unioil cut oil prices

http://business.inquirer.net/money/b...cut-oil-prices

[tidus1203]

Some interesting observations. Even with the market tanking, commodities fared better. Also the EUR fared very well. Even up against the greenback by 40 pips...

An interesting chart of the Brazilian BOVESPA... Double top BROKEN! You guys might want to short Brazilian stocks, its not too late kasi kaka break pa lang ng base ng double top! Target 54,000...

[Monseratto]

Sana maging totoo...

Oil settles 2 percent lower after wild swings

NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices resumed their May swoon Thursday as concerns over the European economy had traders bailing out of energy commodities.

The session was a volatile one. An early 2 percent gain had turned into an 8 percent decline by early afternoon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices settled about 2 percent lower, the 12th decline in 14 trading days this month.

"Fear has obviously gripped the market, and we're trading accordingly," analyst and trader Stephen Schork said.

People are saying it's time to get out," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research. Earlier this year, Lynch stood out from many of his peers by predicting that oil prices would fall.

"The market has gotten way ahead of itself," Lynch said. "People kept saying that soon demand will go up and inventories will go down. But that's not happening."

Investors had been shrugging off U.S. government data showing that Americans have a relatively weak appetite for fuel. Now, they're nervous about the debt crisis in Europe and the glut of fuel in U.S. storage tanks.

That has Lynch predicting that if the world doesn't start sopping up excess supplies, oil prices may fall into the $40-per-barrel range this year.

Experts say gas prices have likely peaked already this year, and it should cost less to fill up this summer than in the summer of 2009. That's good news for the travel industry as Americans get ready to hit the highways over the Memorial Day weekend, the unofficial start of the summer driving season.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-se...fe44e&ccode=mp

[uls]

Wow thanks to yesterday's route, QID is doing real well... Now meron na akong pang Jollibee for lunch and maybe dinner later

hehe

burger burger

FAZ

[uls]

PSQ


SH


DOG


SDS


DXD

[uls]

Some interesting observations. Even with the market tanking, commodities fared better. Also the EUR fared very well. Even up against the greenback by 40 pips...

An interesting chart of the Brazilian BOVESPA... Double top BROKEN! You guys might want to short Brazilian stocks, its not too late kasi kaka break pa lang ng base ng double top! Target 54,000...

short emerging markets



or short Brazil

[uls]

Oil movement last night.

yep

a flash crash in oil last night

buyers disappeared for a while

causing the bid to drop

[tidus1203]

FLASH CRASH that's a new term bought about by the May 6 Dow drop of 1000pts in 30 minutes!

Nakakatakot na din maglagay ng stop losses, baka kasi flash crash lang! Now we have a new adjective!

Doctor Doom is at it again. Sees 20% drop for stocks... Double dip recession (or yung tinatawag kung 2nd phase of the Great Recession)... Cash is King, Bonds of fiscally sound first world countries is great... Read more below!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/37259541

[uls]

Schweizerische Nationalbank bought billions of euros

now selling into the rally

[tidus1203]

German lowerhouse approves $1T bailout money for the Eurozone...

BERLIN (AP) -- German lawmakers have approved their country's share of the huge rescue package aimed at protecting debt-ridden eurozone nations from default.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/German...&asset=&ccode=

That said, DAX is still down almost 2% for the day... US futures also trending lower...

[tidus1203]

Sold my QID * 18.86 a piece... Thought it was too risky to hold positions like that over the weekend cause you never know what kind of news will pop up... But I am looking to buy it again next week if conditions permit...

Also I am looking into shorting the EWZ. I am still analyzing at what price...

[uls]

last night was unreal

it's a BIZARRO market

even Jim Cramer can't believe what's happening

From Jim Cramer Longs and Shorts 5/21/2010 4:03 PM EDT Frequently people say, "you never complain when the market's higher and you get this action". I want to make it clear to everyone that I thought the last 15 minutes up was outrageous and shows how broken everything is. Just ridiculous... And should be investigated.

[tidus1203]

Covering shorts like I did just to make sure they don't get IPITS come weekend. Alam mo naman baka may mangyari...

[Gumusut_Amige]

Even $1 Trillion Can't Save the Euro, But Gold Is No Haven, Prechter Says.

It looks like it’ll take more than a trillion dollars to bring buyers back to the stock market. European markets continue to fall Friday despite Germany’s approval of the massive euro zone bailout. The major European indexes are each falling 2% in intraday trading.
The euro, however, is getting a slight boost. It's off its recent four-year lows and is now trading for more than $1.25. Still, sentiment remains negative on the future of the euro.
Usually a contrarian, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International isn’t so inclined when it comes to the euro. Near term, the euro might rebound, but he says it’s entirely possible the European Union will break up in the next 10 years.
Of course, the euro’s recent loss has been the dollar’s gain. Prechter predicted a strong move in the dollar on Tech Ticker over a year ago. “The dollar appeared to be on the verge of disintegrating last November,” he tells Aaron in the accompanying clip. “I thought that was one of the best contrary opportunities I’ve ever seen.'
Prechter is less enthusiastic now that everyone is piling into the dollar. “The dollar is no longer a bargain,” he says. “I don’t think the bull market is over but I think the best of it for the time being is over.”
Meanwhile, the most popular alternative to currencies, gold, isn’t such a good buy either, according to the veteran market watcher. “It’s losing upside momentum at the same time more people are getting more enamored with it,” he notes.
Contrary to popular belief, “gold tends to rise when the economy is expanding not when it’s in recession,” according to Prechter’s research. And, as we’ll discuss in more detail in another clip, Prechter thinks deflation and economic depression are a foregone conclusion.

link

>1T$ can be 2T$, so what's the right figure then to get investor's confidence back? or prechter is just a plain doubting Thomas?

[uls]

PIIGS debt (in dollars):



clearly, the problem is greater than $1T

the global financial system is so highly interconnected that a scenario like Greece defaulting can send shockwaves throughout the entire system (that's why i started following Greece several months ago... eventhough Greece seems quite small and unimportant)

the $1T EuroTARP is there to guarantee nobody will default in the next couple of years... to calm the market

but it comes at great cost

EU members have to cut govt spending

that means its citizens will no longer be enjoying early retirements, long vacations, fat pensions and other benefits

gulo yan

there are people who believe the EU will disintegrate (like Soros, Roubini, Prechter)

the Euro was thought to replace the USD as reserve currency

now its future is in doubt

don't know what will happen

the EU isn't in good shape

[tidus1203]

I have to admit before believe ako sa stability ng common currency. Now I realize that the different cultures, politics, and systems can really hinder the effectiveness of a common currency. For all its benefits, it can easily vanish because of politics... Personally, I think the Euro should stay but then they have to remove the weak. The Euro has been very beneficial to those countries who uses it by improving trade, improve liquidity, improve investments, and it makes a more transparent pricing... Pero dapat nga very stiff ang rules regarding debt as a % of GDP and anyone who breaches it should automatically be kicked out of the Eurozone to protect the interest of the countries who uses it...

The Brits looked dumb before when they decided NOT to join the single currency and thus not benefit from all the increase trade, but now they look smart at least they can do whatever they want with their currency as the politics of the time dictates... Not that the GBP is in great shape, UK is also in big trouble in terms of its debt!

[Quint]

So, what do you think is the short future of the EUR? What is a good / safer haven? Chaotic scenarios unfolding...

Options?

[uls]

Governments borrowed tons of money to fund economic stimulus and bailouts to save their economies

but there's no free lunch

all debts have to be paid

now the solvency of governments is in question

this is stage 2 of the financial crisis

---

future of the euro?

if left to market forces, the euro should be on a downward spiral towards parity with the USD

but governments and central banks are intervening

so i don't know what's gonna happen to the euro

maybe a gradual, controlled decline

not a fast, out-of-control crash

or they'll draw a line and try to defend the euro at that line

safe haven?

for now USD cash (flight to liquidity)

options?

stay liquid

[uls]

the past few days we've been saying there's a lot of asset liquidation going on (flight to cash)

one asset that has seen substantial liquidation was oil

Hedge Funds Sell Crude Fastest in Eight Months: Energy Markets
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...uWo5c0BY&pos=6

May 24 (Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds sold oil at the fastest pace in almost eight months, cutting their bullish bets by 32 percent as crude prices plunged on concern Europe’s debt crisis will hurt energy demand.

The speculative net-long position in crude oil futures and options combined on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell to 89,335 in the week ended May 18, the biggest percentage decline since Sept. 29, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders Report on May 21.