World economy talk

[uls]

^^

first, let's look at last week

jobs data show signs U.S. economy is recovering

that's positive for oil (recovery means more demand for oil)

oil price went up past $80

the panicky situation in Europe (Greece) has faded

the Euro is up

fear has diminished, risk taking is back (dollar negative, positive for risk assets like oil)

in short, there's a lot of optimism and it carried over to this week and maybe even further

if nothing frightens the market, we can see oil testing $85

[uls]

but on the way to $85, sigurado there will be a profit-taking

so it won't be that quick

--

old news:

AIG selling Alico to Metlife

that's after AIG sold AIA to Pru UK

the FORMER insurance giant selling parts of itself to pay debt

[safeorigin]

thanks ULS. what time ya reckon silver will go down?

[badsekktor]

OT: naalala ko yun cartoons na si scrooge mcduck! hoarding lots of gold coins sa sariling vault!

BTT: im smelling that oil prices will rise locally due to el nino..... huge demand for fossil fuels for power generation

[safeorigin]

well, I think it would be due to power shortages from empty dams if it's gonna happen locally. Internationally on the otherhand, it somehow lies on the geopolitics of US-Iran.

[uls]

Philippine demand for crude oil/refined products doesnt affect global prices

we're too small to move global energy prices

we're not China

what the Phils. can move is the global price of rice

we are the biggest importer of rice in the world

when the Phils. orders rice, the price goes up

--

right now, oil traders are taking profit

oil price is now below $81

there's no news to move oil higher

what's going on now is trading based on charts (technicals)

and based on the USD and stocks

fundamentals news will come from the EIA this week (inventory data)

resistance is $84

[safeorigin]

regarding oil. this might help regarding the forecasting

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/che...cus-2010-03-10

[uls]

the OPEC report isn't a big deal to oil traders

the projected increase in global demand is minimal

not market-moving news

traders are waiting for the EIA report

[uls]

NYMEX crude


see that spike last night? (around midnight)

that's when the EIA report came out

short lived rally huh?

oil is stuck in a range

no matter how hard the most bullish traders try to push up the price, there's just no momentum

[uls]

++++++++++++++++++++++

[uls]

a few posts back, i said the short EUR trade has become too popular

this is what happens when everyone gets out of a popular trade at the same time

[uls]

+++++++++++++++++++++

[safeorigin]

any indication of euro-usd 1.4xx in a week so far?

[tidus1203]

Na, unlikely... Pero I think the worst is over for the EUR...

[uls]

yep

unlikely in a week

but in a few months, probably 1.45

[safeorigin]

ah, thanks. 0.020 na lang kasi

[uls]

the latest news out of Europe is that the EU might not bail out Greece

Germany is having second thoughts

if they really won't bail out Greece, Greece will have to go to the IMF

check out Euro action

[tidus1203]

Ano ba yan pabago-bago isipi nila...

[safeorigin]

in other news...

google left china

[tidus1203]

Google's loss (potential profit) and not China's. I am sure they can live with Baidu...