World economy talk

[Monseratto]

Lalampas ba ng 39 ang USD? 41.35 na kahapon.

[Ry_Tower]

Lalampas ba ng 39 ang USD? 41.35 na kahapon.

Tingin ko hindi pa this year. Baka 40 puwede pa.

[uls]

good morning

[Monseratto]

Them extremist hawkish Jews are demanding another proxy war... When US popularity among muslim has hit rock bottom. Can the US and their "coalition of the willing" afford another war?

Iran on brink of nuclear bomb in 6-7 months: Netanyahu

(Reuters) - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned on Sunday that Iran would reach the brink of being able to build a nuclear bomb in just six or seven months, adding urgency to his demand that President Barack Obama set a "red line" for Tehran amid the worst U.S.-Israeli rift in decades.

Taking to the airwaves to make his case directly to the American public, Netanyahu said that by mid-2013 Iran would have 90 percent of the material it needed for an atomic weapon. He again pressed the United States to spell out limits that Tehran must not cross if it is to avoid military action - something Obama has refused to do.

"You have to place that red line before them now, before it's too late," Netanyahu told NBC's "Meet the Press" program, saying that such a move could reduce the chances of having to attack Iran's nuclear sites.

The unusually public dispute between close allies - coupled with Obama's decision not to meet with Netanyahu later this month - has exposed a gaping U.S.-Israeli divide and stepped up pressure on the U.S. leader in the final stretch of a tight presidential election campaign.

It was Netanyahu's most specific explanation yet on why he has become so strident in his push for Washington to confront Tehran with a more forceful ultimatum. At the same time, his approach could stoke further tensions with Obama, with whom he has had a notoriously testy relationship.

U.S. officials say Iran has yet to decide on a nuclear "breakout" - a final rush to assemble components for a bomb - and they express high confidence that it is still at least a year away from the capacity to build one and would then need more time to fit a warhead onto a missile. This contrasts with Netanyahu's timetable, although he stopped short of saying Iran had decided to manufacture a weapon.

Netanyahu showed no signs of backing off from his pressure campaign and equated the danger of a nuclear-armed Iran with the Islamist fury that fueled attacks on U.S. embassies across the Muslim world last week.

"It's the same fanaticism that you see storming your embassies today. You want these fanatics to have nuclear weapons?" Netanyahu asked in the NBC interview, in a clear emotional appeal to Americans still reeling from the angry protests sparked by a film that mocked the Prophet Mohammad.

There have been no accusations, however, of any Iranian role stoking violence that hit Middle Eastern and African capitals.

[uls]

QE-infinity (i mean QE3) Fed creates money and buys mortgaged backed securities

question is can MBS creation keep pace with Fed buying?

FT:

QE3 is being blunted by banks struggling to process mortgage applications fast enough, keeping rates on home loans elevated, according to the largest lenders. “In the very near term [QE3] has virtually no transfer mechanism whatsoever to the customer,” said one executive at a leading lender, who requested anonymity. “Originators are massively backlogged in terms of origination volumes.”

[uls]

the only thing that's stopping Israel from attacking Iran is the US hasnt committed to backing Israel

for now the US is telling Israel "you're on your own"

but that doesnt mean Israel won't go it alone

a US-led naval exercise is being held now in the Persian Gulf

http://www.jpost.com/Defense/Article.aspx?id=285318

Warships from around the world were assembling in the Gulf on Sunday for what the US military described as the most widely attended international naval exercise ever held in the Middle East.

The exercise, which Washington says involves manoeuvres to improve mine detection and clearance, comes at a time of rising regional tensions over Iran's controversial nuclear program.

Armada of British naval power massing in the Gulf as Israel prepares an Iran strike - Telegraph

Battleships, aircraft carriers, minesweepers and submarines from 25 nations are converging on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz in an unprecedented show of force as Israel and Iran move towards the brink of war.

the exercise is probably being held to stall Israel from going forward with the attack

[pop3corn]

The Chinese are scared of the Japananese. In the Sino - Japanese war prior to WWII, humingi pa sila ng tulong sa Soviets pero tinalo din ng Japanese imperial army ang combined forces the Soviets and Chinese. Manchuria fell to the Japanese.

Partida pa Chinese dyan kse the Japanese army had to cross over the sea pa lol


There is a reason why Hitler chose to ally himself with the Japanese in the Pacific theater of War. He knew that the Japanese can do it and reliable sila, it single-handedly conquered the entire Asian region during the War, even as far as Pearl Harbor Hawaii.

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analyze history, why is it when the Americans after world war 2 chose to help the aggressors like the Germans and the Japanese, tapos tayo na commonwealth as well as devastated China ni Hindi man Lang Nya tinulungan economically. Remember, prior to World War 2 was the great depression, these mighty nations: Germany and Japan were so much affected by the global financial crisis of that time, and yet they were able to inflict so much damage to the world

Kaya tigilan nyo na yan kesyo Japan is at its knees or Japan is dependent on China. we are talking about war Gods here, and that's why America chose to take care of them.

sa Ninja legend pa Lang, Inapply na sa lahat ng special forces sa Mundo even sa lowly SWAT. Do we see special forces of respective countries, use kungfu drunken master or cat's claw lol

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Monseratto]

Hehehe, le klutz program...

Rapid plunge in oil futures leaves traders guessing
By Joshua Schneyer and Jeanine Prezioso | Reuters – 21 minutes ago..

(Reuters) - Four minutes of hectic high volume activity that sheered $4 off the price of oil late Monday left traders, analysts and U.S. regulators looking for the cause of one of the fastest and most furious energy market routs in recent years.

In the absence of any major headline news that could have explained the drop, which hit both international benchmark Brent crude and U.S. oil futures, many traders and analysts speculated that the dramatic drop could have been caused by an incorrectly entered trade -- a "fat finger error" -- or a high frequency trading program gone wrong.

Another potential cause -- rumors of a possible release of oil by the United States from its strategic reserve to bring down prices -- appeared to have been countered by quick government denials of such a move.

Federal regulator the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is "looking into" the quick price drop, said commissioner Scott O'Malia, and has contacted exchange operators the CME Group and the IntercontinentalExchange Inc .

ICE's Front-month November Brent crude, which had opened at $116.67 a barrel, at one point had plunged $5.17 a barrel to $111.50. It fell more by $3.60 a barrel in a three-minute period between 1:52 p.m. and 1:55 p.m. EDT. From nearly one minute to the next, volume of trading spiked.

Between 1:51 and 1:52 p.m. EDT, 151 lots of front-month October U.S. crude traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which is owned by CME Group, according to Reuters data. Three minutes later, volume spiked above 13,000 lots within a minute, more than 100 times higher than minutes before.

U.S. crude futures plunged in that time, although not as sharply London's Brent market. Brent began to recover after a sharp 3-minute drop, with Brent crude settling at $113.79 a barrel, off $2.87 on the day, having dropped as low as $111.50. U.S. crude settled at $96.62 a barrel, off the low of $94.65.

Traders and energy analysts offered several speculative explanations for the brusk fall, but none could immediately be substantiated, including a "fat finger" incident by a major crude trader. Reuters was not able to identify any potential culprit.

Another explanation was a sell off led by algorithms programmed into super-computers, which many large hedge funds and banks use for oil trading, which could have been triggered by technical factors and then exacerbated by a lack of liquidity due to traders off for the Rosh Hashanah holiday.

One veteran energy markets risk manager said the abrupt crude price fall in the course of just seconds in New York trading on Monday afternoon was "the fastest move I've ever seen."

"I think it was too fast to be anything but HFT (high-frequency trading) or other algos (algorithmic traders). We just don't know right now, but that's my gut feeling," said John Gretzinger at INTL-FCStone in Kansas City.

[Ry_Tower]

^ how about some insider magic.

On some local economic news, medyo may good news naman sa Pinas.
Japanese manufacturers move to Philippines | Inquirer Business

[Monseratto]

^^^

The DTI and the Japanese Embassy have jointly reported that despite “difficult situations” the two countries faced, particularly in 2011, trade volume between the Philippines and Japan increased to P382.7 billion from P335.4 billion in 2010. Japan remains the biggest investor in the Philippines, with total investments of P77.4 billion last year, P19.1 billion more than P58.3 billion in 2010.

How much is that in US dollar? US$ 1.8 billion total? Mukhang loose change compared to what those Japs invest in other ASEAN countries...

JAKARTA: The government is targeting Japan’s investment in Indonesia this year to reach US$2 billion or US$500 million compared with the realization in 2011, which was US41.5 billion.

Japanese companies are flocking to Vietnam in record numbers seeking cheap labour and growth markets and business is booming for the Hanoi branch of Izakaya Yancha, a Japanese restaurant chain.

A record 208 Japanese companies set up in Vietnam last year, pledging to invest just over $1.8bn, according to Jetro, the Japanese trade promotion body. In 2010, 114 Japanese companies came to Vietnam, vowing to invest $2bn.

The Ministry of Planning and Investment said Japan remained one of the top investors in Viet Nam.

As of the end of July, Japanese companies had invested US$28 billion in more than 1,700 projects. — VNS

Posted on April 28, 2012, Saturday

KUALA LUMPUR: Japanese investors are increasingly locating their businesses to Malaysia after the aftermath of March 11, 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan and the floods in Thailand which disrupted their global operations.

To-date, 2,422 manufacturing projects worth US$19.5 billion with Japanese participation were implemented, making Japan the largest investor in Malaysia.

These projects are mainly in electronics and electrical (E&E), non-metallic mineral, basic metal, petroleum products, chemical and motor vehicle industries.

[Ry_Tower]

^ Still good news kesa naman mapunta ulit sa iba. ;)

[pop3corn]

*uls, been reading the financial markets for almost 2 months now with my ipad ibooks reader.

Check mo naman kung tama etonv summary ko so far and of course, below is my own categorizing of the various securities / financial instruments traded.

I need to move on na eh, practical application na sana, sawa na ako read, baka may mali o baka may isuggest ka pa?

A. Equity
- Stocks - common/preferred
- ETF
- Commodities
- Real Estate
- Currencies / Forex (am still insure if this falls in equity category

B. Debt
- Money Market
- Treasury / Government / Sovereign
- Corporate
- Municipal
- Junk
- Asset Backed Security / Mortgage Backed
- Collateralized Debt Obligations
- Synthetic CDO


C. Fund (collective investment of equity & debt instruments)
- Mutual Fund
- Index Fund
- ETF
- Hedge Fund
- Unit Investment Trust Fund
- REIT

D. Derivatives (can be applied to all of above)
- Forward
- Futures
- Swaps
- Options



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I am particularly excited / interested with Margin Trading, Shortselling, Options and Hedge Funds as investment-style.

Btw, pano ba yun insurance, where does it fall in all of these?

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Ry_Tower]

Damay-damay na Asia with China.

World Bank slashes Asia forecast - Oct. 8, 2012

Although the forecast of a better 2013 is not far fetched for us since election year. Maganda negosyo namin niyan.

Meanwhile, it's interesting to see whether we will see a divided EU in the next 2 years.
EU braced for budget fight with UK - CNN.com

[uls]

IMF Survey: IMF Sees Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global Recovery

IMF Sees Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global Recovery

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented a gloomier picture of the global economy than a few months ago, saying prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased. Overall, the IMF’s forecast for global growth was marked down to 3.3 percent this year and a still sluggish 3.6 percent in 2013.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, unveiled in Tokyo ahead of the IMF-World Bank 2012 Annual Meetings, the IMF said advanced economies are projected to grow by 1.3 percent this year, compared with 1.6 percent last year and 3.0 percent in 2010, with public spending cutbacks and the still-weak financial system weighing on prospects.

Growth in emerging market and developing economies was marked down compared with forecasts in July and April to 5.3 percent, against 6.2 percent last year. Leading emerging markets such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil will all see slower growth. Growth in the volume of world trade is projected to slump to 3.2 percent this year from 5.8 percent last year and 12.6 percent in 2010.

end-of-year US fiscal cliff is going to be a killer

[uls]

[Monseratto]

[pop3corn]

* uls, tsekan mo naman kung tama na eto. I just outlined the entire Bond instruments available na binasa ko for 2 mos. ko sa Investopedia / wiki


Bonds 10/12/12

A. Corporate Bond
1. Investment Grade Bond - secured / low yield
2. Junk Bond - unsecured / high yield
3. Convertible Bond - bonds that can be converted to stocks
4. Commercial Paper - 1 year, high yield, zero-coupon

B. Treasury Bond (per $1000)
1. Treasury Bill - 1 year, zero-coupon
2. Treasury Note - 2-10 years, semi-annual fixed coupon
3. Treasury Bond - 20-30 years, semi-annual fixed coupon
4. Treasury Inflation Protected Security - 5/10/30 years, inflation-indexed coupon
5. Pfandbrief - German covered bond

C. Municipal Bond (per $5000)
1. General Obligation Bond - municipal taxed-backed
2. Revenue Bond - backed by income-earning municipal facilities
3. Build America Bonds - higher yield, post credit crisis muni bond

D. Mortgaged-backed Security (MBS)
1. Residential Mortgage Backed Security
2. Commercial Mortgage Backed Security
3. Collateralized Mortgage Obligation

E. Asset-backed Security (ABS)
1. Home Equity Loans
2. Auto Loans
3. Credit Card Receivables
4. Student Loans

F. Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO)
1. Pool of Corporate / Junk Bonds
2. Pool of Leveraged Bank Loans
3. Pool of Commercial Real Estate Loans / Bonds
4. Pool of ABS

G. Collateralized Fund Obligation (CFO)
1. Private Equity Fund Assets
2. Hedge Fund Assets

iOS 6.0 Mail Client


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Eto naman outline ko sa different types of Investment Funds. I categorized and differentiated it myself


Investment Funds 10/12/12

A. MUTUAL FUND
1. OPEN-END FUND
- NAV pricing per share
- issuable / redeemable shares
- variable portfolio
- can be managed or unmanaged: Index Fund
- exchanged-traded at end of day
- regulated

2. CLOSE-END FUND
- premium / discount NAV per share
- fixed shares
- variable portfolio
- can be managed or unmanaged: Index Fund
- exchanged-traded during the day
- regulated

3. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND
- premium / discount NAV per share
- issuable / redeemable shares
- variable portfolio
- can be managed or unmanaged: Index ETF
- exchanged-traded during the day
- regulated

4. UNIT INVESTMENT TRUST FUND
- NAV pricing per share
- fixed shares
- fixed portfolio
- unmanaged
- limited lifespan
- exchange-traded at end of day
- regulated

B. HEDGE FUND
- NAV pricing per share
- managed
- leveraging and hedging strategy
- privately-traded
- less regulated

C. PRIVATE EQUITY FUND
- no pricing per share
- managed
- buy, hold, merge, sell strategy
- privately-traded
- less regulated

D. REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
- premium / discount NAV pricing per share
- managed
- investment in income-generating real estate
- exchange-traded during the day
- regulated

E. PENSION FUND
- no pricing per share
- managed
- pooled investment for retirement
- no trading
- regulated

TYPES OF MUTUAL FUNDS
- Stock / Equity / Value / Growth / Sector / Dividend Income Fund (stocks)
- Bond / Fixed-Income Fund (bonds)
- Money Fund (money market)
- Hybrid / Balanced / Asset Allocation Fund (combination of all of the above)
- Sovereign Fund (invest in other countries)

iOS 6.0 Mail Client


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Konti na lang *uls, i have to prepare myself with equity and derivatives pa. Medyo hirap pa ako i-summarize lahat

Pag natapos na eto, malapit na tyo sa business venture natin. You will be allen, i will be Gates. You will be cook, I will be jobs

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[uls]

ano idea mo OB? mag uumpisa ka ng hedge fund?

[Monseratto]

ano idea mo OB? mag uumpisa ka ng hedge fund?

I guess OB's parents told him to go into a worthwhile business venture...

[boybi]

Ayan na, the middle earth will take over the world's financial system.