World economy talk

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La Unión Europea anima a España al rescate financiero | Economía | EL PAÍS

El gran tabú se ha roto. Lo innombrable ya está aquí. El rescate de uno de los cuatro grandes de la eurozona ya no parece el pronóstico de los señores de las tinieblas. La mezcla letal de una recesión que promete alargarse con la enorme factura que ha dejado el agujero de la banca empuja a España cada vez más cerca de Grecia, Irlanda o Portugal.

Es difícil encontrar estos días en Bruselas un alto funcionario o un responsable político que, siempre bajo el anonimato, no dé por hecho que España acabará pidiendo ayuda externa para no caer en la insolvencia. “Basta con hacer números. ¿De dónde van a llegar las decenas de miles de millones que necesita el sistema financiero español para recapitalizarse? Las actuales condiciones del mercado hacen que sea prácticamente imposible obtenerlos allí”, señalan fuentes comunitarias.

translation:

The great taboo is broken. The unnameable is here. The rescue of one of the four largest euro zone no longer seems the prognosis of the lords of darkness. The lethal mix of a recession that promises to lengthen with the huge bill that has left the hole in the banking Spain pushes ever closer to Greece, Ireland or Portugal.

It is hard to find these days in Brussels, a senior official or a responsible politician, always anonymous, do not assume that Spain will end up asking for outside help to avoid falling into insolvency. "Just numbers. Where will reach tens of billions needed for the Spanish financial system to recapitalize? Current market conditions make it virtually impossible to get there, "EU sources say.

the EU tells Spain that it need a bailout

"The great taboo is broken. The unnameable is here."

[Monseratto]

Leftist are idiots, regardless from what part of the world they come from...how will they fund their "plans" when there's nothing left in the banks? Hope markets won't react because of this stupidity...

The Greek economy, according to leftists
by Agence France-Presse Posted on 06/03/2012 12:59 PM | Updated 06/03/2012 2:56 PM

ATHENS, Greece - No debt repayments, higher salaries and freedom from EU-IMF tutelage: Greece under the radical leftists, who are poised to win a June 17 election, seems a world removed from its current recession nightmare.

The Syriza party has pledged to tear up Greece's loan agreement with the EU and the IMF, which is currently keeping the country on its feet but at the cost of an unprecedented wave of austerity cuts and structural reforms.

If implemented, such a program, which would also mean the nationalization of banks and a halt to privatization, could well mean Greece's ejection from the eurozone, potentially sending shockwaves through the global economy.

Fed up with two years of salary and pension cuts, Greek voters on May 6 punished larger parties associated with the bailout and catapulted Syriza to second place, within striking distance of the top.

Opinion polls show that the radical leftists, only the fifth party in 2009, could even emerge as the victors in this month's repeat ballot.

The condensed program of the loosely-knit coalition of moderate Communists, Trotskyists, ecologists and other leftist groups was announced on June 1.

In it, the party's leading minds set out their vision for a more equitable Greece, liberated from the excesses of capitalism, heavy industry and political corruption.

Under Syriza's blueprint, state loan repayments to service a debt of over 350 billion euros ($433 billion) are to be frozen to free funds for social support programmes.

The privatization of major public companies -- a key condition of the EU-IMF bailout deal -- is to be suspended as well.

Greek banks that draw on European support funds to recapitalize themselves after a landmark state debt cut brokered by the previous government in March will be "nationalized and socialized."

And the EU-IMF bailout deal, dubbed here the "memorandum," which the leftists say has brought only recession and misery to Greece, is to be rejected and redrawn from scratch.

"The first act of the government of the Left will be to annul the memorandum and its application laws," Syriza's 37-year-old leader Alexis Tsipras said on Friday.

"We will seek a new renegotiation of the debt at European level, aiming to drastically reduce it, or a debt moratorium and a suspension of interest payments until conditions for the stabilization and recovery of the economy are created," Tsipras said during a presentation of the party's revised program.

A previous version of Syriza's platform, drawn up in April, had pledged to outlaw offshore company dealings and shut down NATO bases in Greece.

The revised version released on Friday plans a withdrawal from NATO operations, starting from Greece's mission to Afghanistan, and a future "disengagement" from the military alliance altogether.

"At a time when the international balance shifts and US hegemony increasingly comes into question, the policy of Euro-Atlanticism and complying with NATO war plans has no future," said senior party member Thodoris Dritsas.

The older parties Syriza decimated on May 6, the socialist Pasok and the New Democracy conservatives, have dismissed its program as unrealistic and Tsipras as an arrogant demagogue still wet behind the ears.

"Those who speak of a one-sided rejection of the bailout are like children playing with matches inside an armory," New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras said during a presentation of his party's own program on May 31.

Syriza's leading economist Yiannis Dragasakis, a former junior finance minister in 1990, believes Greece could take a political decision to reject the loan agreement and dump unwanted labour reforms yet still retain vital EU-IMF loans.

"Some elements of the bailout deal can be rejected unilaterally. Others require cooperation to do so," he said in a recent televised interview.

Even European MP Daniel Cohn-Bendit -- a left-wing icon and staunch critic of Greece's bailout terms -- recently dismissed Syriza's plans to reverse wage cuts as "idiotic".

"Europe will give no more money, Greek coffers are empty," he told a Greens news conference on May 23, after Tsipras had visited Paris and Berlin.

"It's like asking someone 'how would you like to commit suicide, with a gun or an axe?'" he said.

In March, Syriza sued Germany's Bild newspaper for a million euros ($1.26 million) after it allegedly portrayed Tsipras as a "half-criminal" who "openly supports violent anarchists."

"Will these radicals soon be governing Greece?," the tabloid asked its readers. - Agence France-Presse

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Heineken Moved Excess Cash From Greece, Financieele Dagblad Says - Bloomberg

Heineken NV (HEIA) moved excess cash from Greece as a preparation for a possible exit of the country from the euro, Het Financieele Dagblad reported today, citing an unidentified spokesman.

Heineken transfers the money from euros into U.S. dollars or pounds when possible, the Dutch newspaper reported.

[boybi]

sa pagkaalam ko kanya kanyang language (Germany german Spain spanish etc) then meron translators

Kabagal siguro ng mga meetings nila. At least 2x the time compared to using a single language.

[uls]

amazing reversal

the market figured the Spanish bank bailout only made things worse

the spin was the bailout isnt a sovereign bailout

the money doesnt go to the govt but goes to the FROB (Fondo de Reestructuración Ordenada Bancaria) -- fund for orderly bank restructuring

but the FROB is a govt program so how the hell does that NOT make it a sovereign bailout?

that 100B euros is a loan. it has to be paid back. the burden falls on the govt. the debt burden has increased

then there's the thing about seniority. where does the money come from? the EFSF? the ESM?

the ESM is senior to all other creditors (except the IMF). if the money comes from the ESM then private bondholders have just been subordinated. meaning if the govt has to restructure its debt the ESM gets paid first while bondholders could take losses

with the increased debt burden and subordination of bondholders, who the hell would wanna hold Spanish bonds now?

Spain 10 yr yield 6.50%

[Monseratto]

I wonder if the EU can afford to piss China off, now refusing US$14 billion of aircaraft deals and threatening retaliatory action such as confiscating EU aircraft...

China ready to impound EU planes in CO2 dispute

(Reuters) - China will take swift counter-measures that could include impounding European aircraft if the EU punishes Chinese airlines for not complying with its scheme to curb carbon emissions, the China Air Transport Association said on Tuesday.

The warning came as the U.N.'s aviation body expressed concern about the growing threat of bilateral reprisals.

Chinese airlines, which have been told by Beijing not to comply with the European Union's Emissions Trading Scheme, refused to meet a March 31 deadline for submitting carbon emissions data.

A new stand-off looms after EU Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard said the carriers would have until the end of this week to submit their data or face enforcement action.

"Chinese airlines are unanimous on this. We won't provide the data," Wei Zhenzhong, secretary general of the China Air Transport Association, said on the sidelines of an International Air Transport Association (IATA) meeting in Beijing.

EU member states can fine airlines for non-compliance or carry out other reprisals including impounding aircraft.

"We would not like to see a situation of 'you hold up my planes and I hold yours'," Wei said.

The Chinese airline group's members include the big three state-controlled carriers - Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines.

"The government will take at least the same kind of measures, and these anti-sanction moves will be lasting," Wei said.

He added, however, "We would try to avoid any trade war."

China is among a raft of countries including India, Russia and the United States that have protested against the inclusion of all flights using EU airports into the emissions scheme.

TIT-FOR-TAT DANGERS

The EU's cap-and-trade scheme will effectively in most cases charge airlines for emissions based on the length of the whole flight, rather than just the portion flown over Europe.

Critics say this amounts to interference with non-EU airspace. The EU says such action is needed to meet the bloc's environmental targets and fill a vacuum left by international failure to deal with aviation emissions.

The head of the United Nations agency responsible for seeking a global solution to the row expressed concerns over the dangers of tit-for-tat retaliation between Europe and China.

"We are very concerned about what is happening with Europeans and China - retaliatory measures. We are very concerned about that, because we want air transport to continue growing," the International Civil Aviation Organization's (ICAO) president, Roberto Kobeh Gonzalez, told Reuters.

Most countries involved in the dispute are looking to ICAO to come up with a global plan, but preliminary technical talks have proved complicated, and some nations are seen as unwilling to negotiate under what they see as pressure from the EU.

The EU has said it is prepared to withdraw the plan if other countries come up a suitable global alternative.

"It's not about the money. It's an issue of sovereignty," said Paul Steele, IATA's director of aviation environment.

China, which according to Airbus and other sources in the aerospace industry is delaying plane orders worth up to $14 billion from European planemaker Airbus over the row, has asked the EU to push the scheme back by a year.

"ICAO will hold its 38th meeting in October 2013, and the EU should at least push the deadline to that time and agree to resolve this issue based on the coordination of ICAO," Wei said.

But ICAO, a body which sets the standards for safety and other vital standards that underpin global aviation, is trying to avoid getting dragged into bilateral disputes and keep the focus on a worldwide solution to the dispute.

"The EU ETS is not in the discussion of the ICAO. This is a bilateral issue at this time. But we have the mandate to develop a global scheme, and that's what we are doing," Gonzalez said.

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Greece

withdrawals accelerating

up to 500M euros/day being withdrawn from banks before the June 17 elections

[renzo_d10]

Wb tidus

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[uls]

hey bumalik si tidus

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Looks like the money printing machine of the EU is moving on full speed... Stock futures up sharply...

yup the ECB is gonna directly recapitalize eurozone banks via the ESM. no burden on governments

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UK


Germany


France


Italy


Spain

[Monseratto]

Most probably they'll bomb Iran proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon in retaliation.

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rising grain prices will affect developing countries more where people spend up to 3/4 of their income on food

remember 07-08 when soaring food prices caused social and political instability in developing countries

another repeat coming

[uls]

rising grain prices affect developing countries more where people spend up to 3/4 of their income on food

remember soaring food prices in 07-08 caused social and political instability in developing countries

another repeat coming

[Monseratto]

rising grain prices affect developing countries more where people spend up to 3/4 of their income on food

remember soaring food prices in 07-08 caused social and political instability in developing countries

another repeat coming

Weather again plays havoc...I think the previous wild swings was also because of drought in Russia. Hopefully the US won't resort to the same action as Putin did before...

MOSCOW — Prime Minister Vladimir V. Putin on Thursday banned all exports of grain after millions of acres of Russian wheat withered in a severe drought, driving up prices around the world and pushing them to their highest level in two years in the United States.

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risk off Friday

Italy


Spain

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Euro-Krise: IWF will Griechenland-Hilfen stoppen - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Drohende Pleite

IWF will Griechenland-Hilfen stoppen

Griechenland könnte schon im September pleitegehen. Der Internationale Währungsfonds hat nach Informationen des SPIEGEL der Brüsseler EU-Spitze signalisiert, dass er sich nicht an weiteren Hilfen für das Land beteiligen werde.

translated:

Impending bankruptcy

IMF wants to stop Greece-aids

The patience of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with Greece comes to an end: Senior officials have told the Brussels EU leaders to information obtained by SPIEGEL, the IMF was no longer willing to provide additional funds for Greece help.

[c_cube]

coz everyone is now shorting the dollar

coz the Fed is gonna print money to infinity

Uls tingin mo ba bababa pa halaga ng us dollar? Iniisip ko kasi baka bumaba pa, kaya papapalit ko na yun ibang dollar ko hehehe

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[uls]

based on what the Fed is doing yes bababa pa ang dollar

unless something happens that causes flight to the dollar... some major destabilizing event

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based on what the Fed is doing yes bababa pa ang dollar

unless something happens that causes flight to the dollar... some major destabilizing event

Hay.. hassle, lugi na ako dahil bili ko sa dollar ko 43 petot last few months hehehe!

Hooray for importers... booo for exporters and ofws..

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