What to do with US$ investments

[badkuk]

Guys, what do you think will happen to the US dollar versus the peso?

On one hand, the dollar has been weakening against all major currencies; let's face it, an economic recovery just isn't gonna happen in the near future; China's already said it won't take on any more USD-denominated debts/bonds.

On the other hand, if the US economy remains weak, chances are the remittances may go down; less $ to go around means the Php will actually weaken.

Me $-denominated UITF placement kasi ako, and i'm considering having most of it converted to Php in the meantime.

[uls]

eventhough the USD weakened considerably after hitting a high in March 2009, the USD didnt fall to its 2008 low



in 2008, the USD index almost hit 70

in 2009, it found support a bit above 74 and went as high as 78 before ending 2009 a bit below 78

the USD could strengthen further in 2010

the Fed is unwinding the extraordinary measures it used to keep the financial system from collapsing (meaning it is pulling out some liquidity out of the system) which is USD positive

interest rates on US treasuries are rising... which is also USD positive

now look at the Eurozone

it has serious problems -- a number of its member countries are in danger of sovereign default... which is EUR negative (and USD positive)

--

re the peso

OFW remittances wasnt affected much by the financial crisis

actually remittances hit record high in 2009, which is peso positive

add the USD weakness in most of 2009, which is also peso positive

but the peso will be facing pressure from a stronger USD in 2010

and domestically, the Phil. government is heading in a dangerous direction... going deeper and deeper into debt

the govt is inviting a sovereign ratings downgrade... which will be peso negative

and the uncertainty of the upcoming elections

i'm not very confident in the peso now

[Lucius]

Bet mo sa Pacquiao-Mayweather fight yan!

[creepy]

eventhough the USD weakened considerably after hitting a high in March 2009, the USD didnt fall to its 2008 low



in 2008, the USD index almost hit 70

in 2009, it found support a bit above 74 and went as high as 78 before ending 2009 a bit below 78

the USD could strengthen further in 2010

the Fed is unwinding the extraordinary measures it used to keep the financial system from collapsing (meaning it is pulling out some liquidity out of the system) which is USD positive

interest rates on US treasuries are rising... which is also USD positive

Talaga???!!

Sabi sa kabilang thread "GET OUT of the US DOLLAR NOW!!!" - tatlo ang exclamation point !!!

Hmmm... I wonder if anybody actually followed that bit of "ädvice".

[uls]

dude, i've explained this to someone else before

that thread was started in early 2008

the USD hit a multi year low soon after the thread was started

so at that time, the title of the thread was right

but nothing is permanent

di ako moderator, di ko kaya baguhin ang title ng thread

rather than start a new thread, we used that thread to post whatever goes on in the financial market for the past 2 years

if you're still stuck with that title-of-the-thread issue, it's your problem

[tidus1203]

Well that thread is still relevant. GET OUT OF THE US DOLLAR!!! If you have a long term perspective on things not a month to month type of horizon. Commodities are good candidate to replace your USD holdings! Better start learning how to trade commodity futures then I suppose!

[creepy]

dude, i've explained this to someone else before

that thread was started in early 2008

the USD hit a multi year low soon after the thread was started

so at that time, the title of the thread was right

but nothing is permanent

di ako moderator, di ko kaya baguhin ang title ng thread

rather than start a new thread, we used that thread to post whatever goes on in the financial market for the past 2 years

if you're still stuck with that title-of-the-thread issue, it's your problem

Very interesting... Ang galing pala (from a 2-3 month perspective, based on your nice chart)!!!!

But don't be too defensive. Jowk lang... Huwag ma-pikon... Hehehe.

[uls]

hehe

the USD was on a downward trend even before that thread was started

at the same time, commodities prices were rising

i think that's why tidus started that thread

the financial crisis interrupted the downward trend

in early 2008, nobody could have imagined what would happen later that year

i understand tidus' long term view

he sees the USD on a permanent downward trend

the spikes are just temporary... just interruptions

like he said, i have a shorter time horizon