Is the PHP on some kind of bubble?

[CVT]

Holidays.....

11.2K:bee:

[uls]

USD/PHP


DJ PHILIPPINES STOCK INDEX


Dollar up.

Stock Market down.

Hot money out?

profit-taking mga foreign funds

followed by locals

[tidus1203]

Yan ang nangyayari kung mga hot money lang at mga tsupitero lang mga foreign investors...

[uls]

the govt says the stock rally is coz of the strong economy

hahaha

[tidus1203]

Well now we know how smart or not PNOY is when it comes to the economy and finance...

[robot.sonic]

subscribed.

[uls]

i guess everyone is convinced by now what we've been saying since the beginning of this thread

that foreign funds came in, bought PHP (peso up), bought local stocks (stocks up)

now things have been reversing

foreign funds are leaving

they're selling local stocks (stocks down), selling PHP (peso down)

the stock rally has very little to do with the strength of the economy (which the govt is taking credit for)

it's all about the dollar, QE2

[tidus1203]

So yeah to answer the question, YES! The PHP was in a bubble, purely speculative wala namang fundamentals to back it up!

[mike_cryogenics]

Subscribing.

Salamat sa informative thread na to... sabi ko na nga ba eh, bubble talaga.

[robot.sonic]

Sticky! Sticky!

[Monseratto]

Should have bought more dollars a couple of days ago. Went down to P42.80, now its up P44.30 sa blackmarket.

[Monseratto]

Some good news pero no effect on the Stock market...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...rd-poor-s.html

Philippines Wins First Rating Upgrade in 13 Years from Standard & Poor's
By Karl Lester M. Yap - Nov 12, 2010 5:22 PM GMT+0800

The Philippines’ debt rating was raised to the highest level in more than seven years by Standard & Poor’s, spurring gains in the peso and government bonds.

The rating on the nation’s long-term foreign currency denominated debt was raised one level to BB from BB-, S&P said in a statement today. That’s the first upgrade since 1997 and brings the measure to the second-highest non-investment grade, the same as Indonesia and Vietnam.

“We have upgraded the Philippines based on its steadily improving external liquidity profile and underlying strengths of its external accounts,” S&P said. “The upgrade also reflects the progress achieved in debt reduction and the underlying fiscal consolidation.”

President Benigno Aquino, who took office in June, is winning investors’ confidence as he goes after tax evaders and corrupt officials to narrow a budget deficit forecast to reach a record this year. A higher debt rating may reduce the cost of borrowing, allowing the Philippines to spend more on roads and bridges to meet Aquino’s pledge to expand the economy by as much as 8 percent annually from 2011.

The currency rose 0.3 percent to 43.73 pesos per dollar after the upgrade, erasing its earlier loss, according to Tullett Prebon Plc. Six-year peso bond yields fell to a record low today after trading little changed earlier.

[tidus1203]

Syempre walang effect yan kasi pag gusto ng lumabas ng foreigner, lalabas yan. No amount of good news will change their minds, tsupitero lang sila eh. Once kumita na layas na, wala silang commitment sa Pilipinas... Kaya nga stocks and currencies lang tinitira nila mga liquid investments para mabilis mabenta di katulad ng factories and land...

[Monseratto]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-1...eculation.html

Emerging-Market Stocks Fall for Third Day; China Drops on Rate Speculation

Emerging-market stocks fell for a third day on speculation Chinese policy makers may raise interest rates for the second time in two months as early as today to curb inflation.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 1.4 percent to 1,122.53 as of 11:35 a.m. in London. The gauge is on course for a 2.9 percent retreat this week, the most since Aug. 13. China’s Shanghai Composite Index retreated 5.2 percent, the biggest loss since August 2009. The Philippine Stock Exchange Index decreased 1.6 percent to the lowest level in almost two months. Turkey’s National ISE 100 index slid 1.4 percent after the central bank increased the level of lira reserves that banks must deposit to 6 percent from 5.5 percent.

In the Philippines, shares fell for a sixth straight day, bringing the slump to 7.3 percent since Nov. 4. Before that date the index gained 44 percent in 2010. The benchmark will extend losses for the rest of 2010 as investors speculate a recent rally was overdone, Macquarie Group Ltd. said.

“Share prices have gone up so much in a short time,” said Alex Pomento, a Manila-based strategist at Macquarie. “We will see a correction from here until the end of the year.”

[Monseratto]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aUlplSDNt_og

Philippine Stocks, Peso Extend Weekly Loss on Policy Concern
By Clarissa Batino and Ian Sayson - November 11, 2010 02:40 EST

(Bloomberg) -- Philippine stocks fell for a fifth day and the peso dropped to a three-week low as investors speculated a recent rally was excessive and concern grew that the government will take steps to curb gains in the currency.

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index declined 1.3 percent to 4,144.41 at the 12 p.m. close in Manila, paring this year’s gain to 36 percent. The peso fell 0.8 percent to 43.68 per dollar, according to inter-dealer broker Tullett Prebon Plc, after touching the weakest level since Oct. 21. The benchmark equity gauge has slumped 2.9 percent this month and the local currency has weakened 2.6 percent, the worst performances in Asia excluding Japan.

Foreign investors have sold $9.1 million more Philippine shares than they bought this month through yesterday, following record net purchases of $631.5 million in October, based on data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1999. President Benigno Aquino said Nov. 5 the government is preparing measures to cool the rally in the peso, while the central bank on Oct. 28 eased rules on foreign-exchange outflows.

“Investors are selling markets that have moved up a lot and moving these funds into those that have trailed,” said Jerome Gonzalez, a fund manager at Philequity Management Inc. “We are seeing a portfolio reallocation.”

Manila Electric Co., the nation’s largest power retailer, sank 7.9 percent, the sharpest loss since Jan. 22. Universal Robina Corp., the second-biggest listed food and drinks company, tumbled 4.6 percent. The stock has more than doubled this year.

Stock Valuations

Benchmark stock gauges in Southeast Asia are among the world’s best performers this year as the region’s exports rebounded and investors sought higher yields amid near-zero benchmark interest rates in the U.S. The rally drove the Philippine index to 15.4 times estimated earnings, the Jakarta Composite Index to a multiple of 18.2 and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index to 16.2, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Inflows into emerging-market stock funds have surpassed $60 billion and exceeded $46 billion in bonds, with both poised for their best year since Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global started tracking them in 1995.

“This is a healthy correction for stocks, just what the doctor ordered,” said Jonathan Ravelas, a Manila-based strategist at Banco de Oro Unibank Inc. “The Philippines’ macro fundamentals are still intact. We have a strong support at 4,000,” he said.

Philippine exports rose at a record pace of 46.1 percent in September as Asian demand boosted sales of electronics goods, countering declining shipments to the U.S. Inflation in the Southeast Asian country of 108 million people eased in October to the slowest pace in 11 months, giving the central bank scope to leave borrowing costs at a record low.

Borrowing Costs

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 percent for more than a year as inflation stayed within policy makers’ target and capital flowing into emerging markets boosted the peso, bonds and stocks.

Credit Suisse AG maintained its “overweight” rating on Philippine equities, saying there was no “fundamental bad news” behind recent declines. The brokerage recommended buying developers and power generators, analysts Dante Tinga and Haj Narvaez wrote in a report today.

Manila Electric Co., the nation’s largest power retailer, sank 7.9 percent, the sharpest loss since Jan. 22, on speculation investors will shift funds to Aboitiz Power Corp., which is due to join the MSCI Philippines Index. Aboitiz Power advanced 6 percent, the highest since the stock began trading in July 2007.

“Manila Electric is a victim of Aboitiz Power’s addition into the MSCI Philippines Index,” said Alex Pomento, a Manila- based strategist at Macquarie Group Ltd. “This revision gives investors a cheaper alternative to play the nation’s energy sector. It can have an impact on companies that own Manila Electric.”

Manila Electric trades at 26 times reported earnings, compared with Aboitiz Power’s 13 times.

[uls]

we are now rated BB by S&P

non-investment grade parin

hehe

[tidus1203]

Let me guess Noynoy will try to take credit with the ratings upgrade...

[robot.sonic]

we are now rated BB by S&P

non-investment grade parin

hehe

Pano marerealize yung private-public partnership kung non-investment grade pa rin yung rating ng S&P? Kailangan muna iupgrade ang rating?

[uls]

Pano marerealize yung private-public partnership kung non-investment grade pa rin yung rating ng S&P? Kailangan muna iupgrade ang rating?

di ko gets

what do you mean p/p partnership (in relation to bond ratings)?

[tidus1203]

Better credit ratings simply mean the gov't might be able to borrow at lower rates...