$20 per barrel oil in 2009

[leonleon]

Sana magkatotoo.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aQBXqFcd5gJo

[CVT]

Bro., "it" is free.....

8303:dishwash:

[Zeus]

Magkano kayo isang litro ng gasolina kung ganun?

[tidus1203]

Hahaha IMO not possible until oil does not become mainstream source of energy. As long as most people DO NOT use oil anymore to heat up their homes, power their cars then yeah $20 and even lower is possible. But by then you wouldn't care cause you're probably not using oil anymore kaya nga bumagsak ng ganun. And higher oil prices is MANDATORY for a healthy economy. LOWER oil prices just means lower demand (remember supply does not increase in fact it decreases over time since oil is finite).

[a3n3as]

Magkano kayo isang litro ng gasolina kung ganun?

Knowing the big 3 business practice here, siguro piso lang ang rollback nila.

[uls]

read carefully

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will collapse to $20 a barrel this year as the recession takes a deeper toll on fuel demand, according to academic and former U.S. government adviser Philip Verleger.

A crude surplus of 100 million barrels will accumulate by the end of the year, straining global storage capacity and sending prices to a seven-year low, said Verleger, who correctly predicted in 2007 that prices were set to exceed $100. Supply is outpacing demand by about 1 million barrels a day, he said.

“The economic situation is not getting better,” Verleger, 64, a professor at the University of Calgary and head of consultant PKVerleger LLC, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Global refinery runs are going to be much lower in the fall. If the recession continues and it’s a warm winter, it’s going to be devastating.”

Crude oil last traded at $20 a barrel in February 2002. Futures were at $61.18 today in New York, having recovered 89 percent from a four-year low reached last December. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is implementing record supply cuts announced last year in response to plunging consumption.

“OPEC don’t realize the magnitude of the cuts they need to make,” which would total about a further 2 million barrels a day, Verleger added. “Storage is going to become tight. It’s not clear if there’s going to be enough storage available.”

notice that he just focused on supply and demand fundamentals

he totally left out casino betting and inflation hedging by market players who are not commercial users of oil (those fundies)

it's obvious to anyone who has been following the markets that supply and demand is not the only factor that affects oil price

he didnt even mention how the value of the USD strongly affects oil price

[tidus1203]

Well even without factoring speculative trades and value of the USD, oil at $20 is not possible even in the current demand-supply dynamics. Of course everyone is entitled to their beliefs but I seriously think he is mistaken.

[leonleon]

read carefully



notice that he just focused on supply and demand fundamentals

he totally left out casino betting and inflation hedging by market players who are not commercial users of oil (those fundies)

it's obvious to anyone who has been following the markets that supply and demand is not the only factor that affects oil price

he didnt even mention how the value of the USD strongly affects oil price

From the article:

"...said Verleger, who correctly predicted in 2007 that prices were set to exceed $100"

But he did correctly predict that it will exceed USD 100.00 back then. So won't he be using the same "techniques" he used in 2007 to make this new prediction?

[leonleon]

Magkano kayo isang litro ng gasolina kung ganun?

According to the article, the last time OIL was trading at USD 20.00 / barrel was in Feb. of 2002.

If I remember correctly, the price of unleaded gasoline (Caltex VORTEX Gold, specifically) then in the Phils. was only P 16.00 per liter give or take a few centavos, with a prevailing USD to Peso exchange rate of USD 1.00 to P 52.00.