Latest SWS Survey 6-4-2 for GO

[Asus700]

Here is the result:

1. Legarda
2. Villar
3. Escudero
4. Pangilinan
5. Lacson
6. Aquino
7. Recto
8. Cayetano
9. Zubiri
10. Honasan
11. Angara
12. Arroyo

According to the survey, the top 10 are already sure winners. Surveys conducted on the last three elections, all done in May, predicted accurately the winning candidates.

MANILA, Philippines -- Less than two weeks before Election Day, Genuine Opposition candidates and an independent held the top half of the 12 Senate slots at stake, according to a nationwide survey by Social Weather Stations.

Conducted on May 2-4 exclusively for the Philippine Daily Inquirer, the survey indicated that six Senate seats would go to candidates of GO, four to those of Team Unity, and two to independents.

SWS released the results of the survey Wednesday, five days before the elections.

Loren Legarda clinched the top spot for the third consecutive time, getting the nod of 59 percent of respondents who said they would “surely vote” in the May 14 elections. (Ninety-two percent of the respondents fell under the “sure voters” category.)

Legarda placed first in all of the four study areas (Metro Manila, the balance of Luzon, the Visayas and Mindanao).

In the survey, SWS asked 1,200 registered voters, divided into random samples of 300 each in the four areas, to write their votes on “ballots.” The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Legarda was followed by Manuel Villar (46 percent) and Francis Escudero (44 percent). All three belong to the opposition slate.

Independent candidate Francis Pangilinan improved to fourth place (42 percent), up from fifth place in mid-April. GO candidates Panfilo Lacson (39 percent) and Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III (37 percent) complete the upper half of the winners’ list.

Included among the 10 candidates declared “safe” in the winning circle by SWS are TU’s Ralph Recto (36 percent), GO’s Alan Peter Cayetano (35 percent), and TU’s Juan Miguel Zubiri, and independent candidate Gregorio Honasan, who are tied at 33 percent.

This is Zubiri’s first time in the Magic 12. In a statement, SWS said that Zubiri’s high ranking in Mindanao (second place) and the Visayas (fifth place) offset his poor performance in Metro Manila and the balance of Luzon (15th place).

Competing for the last two seats are three administration candidates -- Edgardo Angara (32 percent), Joker Arroyo (31 percent) and Vicente Sotto III (28 percent).

The survey included Joselito Cayetano of Kilusang Bagong Lipunan, a clerk in a stevedoring firm in Davao City, who has a pending disqualification case with the Commission on Elections. SWS assigned “Cayetano” votes (7 percent) to Alan Peter Cayetano.

“If Joselito is declared qualified, the loss of the ‘Cayetano-unspecified’ votes would drop Alan Cayetano to a tie with Sotto for 12th place, and make possible a new scenario of 5 GOs, 2 independents, and 5 TUs as winners,” SWS said.

The survey outcome was a result of what SWS called “ticket mixing.” Only 13 percent of the registered voters polled (including those who were unsure if they would vote on May 14) went “purely” for GO, while 7.6 percent voted purely for TU.

“Even among partisans who went ‘purely’ for either GO or TU, in most cases the ballots were for 4-0 at most; instances of 12-0 were very rare,” SWS says.

Almost 10 percent of respondents either did not vote for any GO or TU candidate, or did not vote at all.

Aquino, Honasan big gainers

Aside from Zubiri, who rose five ranks since mid-April to get the ninth-tenth slot (based on the votes of all registered voters, including those who are not “sure voters”), the big gainers are Aquino (rose five ranks, from 11th-13th to sixth-seventh) and Honasan (rose two ranks, from 11th-13th to ninth-tenth).

Antonio Trillanes IV, who gained 10 percentage points (from 14 percent to 24 percent), moved from 21st place to 15th-16th.

Trillanes’ case shows that “it is not impossible to make up a large deficit within a short period of time,” SWS said.

Angara, Arroyo, Sotto slip

Angara fell four ranks, while Arroyo and Sotto fell three ranks (based on the votes of registered voters).

Surigao del Sur Rep. Prospero Pichay, the top campaign spender, according to the group Pera’t Pulitika, ranked 17th in this month’s survey, with only 24 percent of “sure voters” saying they would vote for him.

SWS says this translates to a 7-percent deficit behind the final winning slot (Arroyo’s 31 percent).

The polling firm said: “No senatorial candidate in the last three elections was able to overcome a survey deficit that was still statistically significant at the beginning of May.”

The last three SWS “homestretch surveys” on senatorial elections, or surveys conducted in the beginning of May during election years, predicted accurately the winning senatorial slate.

All the top 12 candidates in the 1998 and 2004 homestretch surveys won, while 10 of the top 12 in the 2001 SWS survey were elected to the Senate. That year, SWS declared only nine of the candidates statistically safe. Cyril L. Bonabente, Inquirer Research

[rsnald]

actually, i'd say that the count is 6-2-4 or maybe even 6-1-5.

I don't consider Arroyo, Angara, and Recto as true blue political puppies of GMA, specially Joker. They can be independent minded if they want to. It was only for convenience that they joined the TU ticket to ride on the political machinery of the government. of the 4 in the TU who got in the list, only Zubiri is a dyed-to-wool GMA puppy.

Looks like the fertilizer of Pichay did'nt work its magic hindi tumubo ang tanim ni Pichay! :lol:

[Syuryuken]

Malalaman natin pagkatapos ng election alam naman natin na may " Hello Garci" ang administrasyon.

[mazdamazda]

mahirap maniwala sa mga survey na ito... na cocondition ang utak ng mga tao na ito dapat ang manalo.

and then kapag hindi nanalo - sasabihin nadaya. :rofl:

[Asus700]

my minds pretty much made up on six of them: legarda, escudero, pangilinan, lacson, aquino, cayetano.

am thinking of voting for some unknowns like bautista, a doctor by profession, mukhang okay sa program na "isang tanong" ng gma7. sounds sincere and walang gastos na malaki, walang babawiin, hehehe.

am thinking about zubiri, very hardworking congresman, perfect attendance in the last congress. nakakatakot lang yung malaking ginastos sa election.

[chua_riwap]

Wala si Pichay, si Balimbing (Sotto) at yung "ass licker" ni GMA, si Mike D. At saka si Chavit......buti naman.