Fearless Forecast: Prices of Cars in 2009

[4wrider]

The whole world is tupsy-turvy right now and those who have plans of buying cars might be wondering when's the best time to buy now or next year?

With the cost of production presumably going down with the lower oil and metal prices will the local car prices also go down?

Ano nga ba?

[tidus1203]

Unlikely. They always raise prices regardless of raw material costs and they never pass that to consumers. But in the US it might go down since the industry there is in trouble and the competition is cutthroat unlike here sobrang dominant ang Toyota and a few other carmakers. I am not anticipating a huge economic slowdown here to the point of massive layoffs and closure of big companies but there will be a slowdown of smaller proportions. But I think 2nd hand prices might go down due to demand destruction as people become cautious on spending on big items.

As for the best time to buy a car, that a thing you could only answer as you know best your financial circumstance. By the way, Honda will raise the prices of their Civic by P23K, so much for an economic slowdown.

[jedi]

starting dec 1, 2008, the price of the 8th gen civic will increase

http://www.tsikot.com/honda-cars-phi...-civic-prices/

mukhang nararamdaman na din effect ng crisis sa US dito sa pinas

[uls]

as the crisis deepens, there will be people who will badly need cash.

People will be selling their cars

Be on the lookout for sacrifice sales

hehe

[CVT]

Hehehe.... Mga kapitbahay namin.... bago ang mga sasakyan, parang kaka-deliver lang last week - BMW, Fortuner, Sta. Fe, Starex, Innova, Jazz atbp..... Ayun lahat ang mga dati nilang sasakyan.... nakaparada sa kalye.....Whew!

7000:diver:

[coiter]

when was the last time car makers actually reduced prices? they may offer discounts but this would be on a promo basis and only for a short period of time. tingin ko seller's market pa rin dito when it comes to brand new cars no matter what the economic conditions are. parang luxury item pa rin sya. pero sa 2nd hand cars it's becoming a buyer's market.

[4wrider]

I'm sure RP car industry is not immune to the law of supply and demand. Unless, the car makers substantially reduce their production (which is not as easy as in oil by OPEC) universally the excess supply will definitely takes it toll on prices. Even the much more organized oil cartel failed to stop the price rollback by limiting deliverable oil.

I believe if the global economy continue to worsen upto the end of 1Q 2009 affecting OFWs remittances, Exporters earnings (though the weak peso is still propping them up) then the car makers would be forced to reduce their inventories principally by agressive price reductions.

However, if the bailout for the US big 3 does not materialize and if even one 1 files for bankruptcy and if such freezes operation of that company then all the others might benefit with lesser competition. This might avert a possible price war for survival due to a very tight market. So far the Republicans are putting up a road block to the auto bailout. Dahil siguro hindi sila binoto ng mga UAW union members who mostly voted for Democrats.

My take then is that the real prices of cars will go down sometime February if Obama does not direct his new Treasurer Secretary to give what the big 3 are begging or the Democrats failed to overcome Republican resistance in Congress.

Of course, my guess is as good as anyone.

Also, even if have the money to buy, in these uncertain times, prudence is of utmost value.

[redorange]

Too bad cars in the Philippines are sold at MSRP, in the US getting a car below dealer invoice is almost the norm if you know how to negotiate. The slow sales are forcing dealers and makers to sell below invoice and add a discount on top of it. Great time to be a buyer if you have the money or credit to buy a new car.

[fourtheboys96]

accdg to my economics 101, prices of goods are basically rigid downwards. unless of course, demand for such products drops dramatically that change in price is necessary. this is true for good with elastic demands such as cars.

[4wrider]

accdg to my economics 101, prices of goods are basically rigid downwards. unless of course, demand for such products drops dramatically that change in price is necessary. this is true for good with elastic demands such as cars.

30% to 40% contraction in US car sales, forecasted total sales for the year will be down to around 11 million from 16 millions last year. That's dramatic by any standard. I'm sure the car manufacturers have reduced their production but still millions will remain unsold and efforts would be done to shift these excess inventories to other markets.

Europe and Japan are experiencing 12 -15% drop in automotive sales this year and are projected to do no better next year. Among the major car producers only Korea appears to weather the storm at the moment.

So far in RP sales remains basically the same but how long can that hold?

[Gen. Miting]

Too bad cars in the Philippines are sold at MSRP, in the US getting a car below dealer invoice is almost the norm if you know how to negotiate. The slow sales are forcing dealers and makers to sell below invoice and add a discount on top of it. Great time to be a buyer if you have the money or credit to buy a new car.

actually, hindi naman farfetched na mangyari ito dito. the mazda tributes and the ford escapes are way below the SRP price na. you dont even have to deal directly with the supplier.

the thing is pag humina ang benta ng dealer, the natural tendency is to offer it lower pero out of the radar of course.

ngaun na naging dealer-based na ang mga CASA, with Hyundai, Kia, Suzuki, Nissan offering other car brands in their dealerships. mas malaki ang opportunity ng mga CASA na ito to survive kasi dami nila possible sources of income.

[4wrider]

If producers and sellers can jack up the price of the their products by agreeing among themselves to maintain availability of the products in the market (a form of hoarding), the buyers if there are enough of them can also agree to defer or postpone their purchases to bring down the price.

Of course, this is just all hypothetical considering the number of buyers compared to the number of producers and dealers and besides agreement to manipulate the market is illegal.

Just wishful thinking that if maybe, just maybe, a critical mass of ready, willing and able buyers will simultaneously just defer their purchases by a month or so then the big boys might think about a little downward price adjustments and/or additional freebies to stimulate the market.

[CVT]

Hehehe.... That would be a scenario....

7101:hooray:

[actor21]

If producers and sellers can jack up the price of the their products by agreeing among themselves to maintain availability of the products in the market (a form of hoarding), the buyers if there are enough of them can also agree to defer or postpone their purchases to bring down the price.

Of course, this is just all hypothetical considering the number of buyers compared to the number of producers and dealers and besides agreement to manipulate the market is illegal.

Just wishful thinking that if maybe, just maybe, a critical mass of ready, willing and able buyers will simultaneously just defer their purchases by a month or so then the big boys might think about a little downward price adjustments and/or additional freebies to stimulate the market.

i love this to happen so that those arrogant SA of toyota's and honda's would feel and would know that they are not number 1.