Country in fiscal crisis. Total collapse in 3 years.

[jolog1]

Sino nagbabasa ng dyaryo? Sabi ni GMA, our economy is in fiscal crisis. Mga experts predict if we don't do any drastic economic reform, the economy will totally collapse in 3 years. I think it's possible. Sa 2001, nag-default ang Argentina lahat ng loans nila. Si Marcos nag-default din 21 years ago.

If you have large chunk of savings, my advice for you is to convert them into US dollars or EURO. Simula na ngayon ang bagsak ng Peso. Last week diba P55.62 to $1? Ngayon P55.92 to $1.

[pajerokid]

We had it coming....

[mbt]

we have 3 years to secure a one-way ticket to elsewehere!!!! :bwahaha:

o joke lang yan, wag nang siryosohin ng mga nationalista diyan

[GlennSter]

Originally posted by mbt
we have 3 years to secure a one-way ticket to elsewehere!!!! :bwahaha:

o joke lang yan, wag nang siryosohin ng mga nationalista diyan

kiper oh!charing.

seriously, we really saw it coming naman dati pa.

kahit ano na yata gawin natin wala na mangyari.

kaya gustong gusto na kami itapon ng tatay ko sa canada where his sisters are.

natatakot talaga siya.mabuti nang maghirap sa maayos na sitwasyon, kaysa maghirap sa magulong sitwasyon.

don't get me wrong, mahal ko ang bansang ito.ang sarap ng buhay ko dito.pero kawawa naman ang mga kapitd ko at mga anak namin kung di kami kikilos ngayon.

[mbt]

ano bang magiging consequences kung mag-default sa utang yung isang bansa?

[mazdamazda]

Originally posted by jolog1
Sino nagbabasa ng dyaryo? Sabi ni GMA, our economy is in fiscal crisis. Mga experts predict if we don't do any drastic economic reform, the economy will totally collapse in 3 years. I think it's possible. Sa 2001, nag-default ang Argentina lahat ng loans nila. Si Marcos nag-default din 21 years ago.

If you have large chunk of savings, my advice for you is to convert them into US dollars or EURO. Simula na ngayon ang bagsak ng Peso. Last week diba P55.62 to $1? Ngayon P55.92 to $1.

You have to give it to our incompetent media to sensationalize this blunder of GMA.

Our country will only be in a fiscal crisis if we default on our loans payment. And yet, we still are able to pay on our loans.

Btw, what is your definition on the "total collapse" of our economy? What is your definition on what will happen should a fiscal crisis hit us?

If we ever get to the point of being in a fiscal crisis, we will just have to restructure our debts. It doesn't mean that the whole Philippines will vanish or that the international lenders will "liquidate" the asset of the Philippines to get their payment. We won't just be able to secure additional loans or would have a hard time selling treasury bonds due to a poor credit rating. Well that'll be better for us I think so that the government will really tighten its belt on our budget.

If you check on the rate our treasury bonds are doing, they are quite good. That means that the amount of confidence that the investors have in us is still concrete.

What we don't need is sensationalizing this and just panic. You even pointed out the decline of the Peso over a week - but you didn't even take into account the gains that the Peso have made over the past months.

[explorer]

Originally posted by mbt
ano bang magiging consequences kung mag-default sa utang yung isang bansa?

pag nag default, ibig sabihin di na kaya magbayad ng utang. kung alam ng foreign creditors na di na kaya magbayad ng utang, wala na magpapautang kahit sa private banks. peso devaluation is not i terms of 10% or 50%....it'll be 100%, 200%, 300% or more. we would be very lucky if we hit only 100% peso devaluation. pag 100% peso devaluation, just guess wkung magkano na ang presyo ng 1.6L na tsikot. it'll be a total chaos, pati yung pinakamatatag na negosyo like smart and globe malamang babagsak. imagine yung USD 100 million na inutang nila babayaran nila ng USD 200 million dahil lang sa peso devaluation. we will be very lucky if we'll not have a civil war pag nagyari ang great crisis. and i'm hoping sana di matuloy....but the way i look at it...as PK said, we had it coming. it may not happen after 3 years but the way the situation is going on...mangyayari talaga in the period 3 to 5 years. our government is spending too much money and have a very big budget deficit in the history of this country. what makes it worse, karamihan ng ginagastos ng gobyerno di naman bumabalik sa pag lago ng negosyo, pumupunta lang sa bulsa ng mga kurakot. the only way to avert is to stop the money leak coz of corruption, but that's nearest to impossibility. maybe only the miracle can avert the foreseen disaster.

[yebo]

1/3 kasi ng national budget pambayad lang ng utang. utang inang utang yan, di mo naman makita kung saan napupunta! umuutang pa nga tayo para pambayad sa utang inang yan e.

i don't think the media is hyping the issue. read winnie monsods collumn a few days back in pdi. several prominent filipino economists who know what they are talking about gave a position paper about this, ms monsod included. unfortunately they are not in gma's economic team as all the people in the cabinet now are politicians who do not know their left foor from their ass. take note, out economic managers are now all politicians. that will be our ultimate downfall.

[mbt]

but does a debt default mean that all our foreign debt will be written off? how would that affect our finances?

kakatakot pala yang hyper-devaluation hehe. i've read winnie monsod's column about the looming debt crisis, and i have to say that some of the revenue-raising measures they endorsed, including an additional P2 per liter tax on fuel, are rather extreme. paano bang "best" way to manage this multi-trillion peso debt?

[boybi]

nope, our debts will not be written off, just restructured. ang nakakatakot talaga dyan is the rapid devaluation of our peso and inflation. patay din ang real estate. isipin mong bumili ka ng lupa ngayon na worth P1000.00 per sq. meter (~US17.50), after the devaluation and inflations, ganun pa rin ang peso value nya pero yung cost ng peso mo wala na.

[baiskee]

Originally posted by GlennSter
kiper oh!charing.

seriously, we really saw it coming naman dati pa.

kahit ano na yata gawin natin wala na mangyari.

kaya gustong gusto na kami itapon ng tatay ko sa canada where his sisters are.

natatakot talaga siya.mabuti nang maghirap sa maayos na sitwasyon, kaysa maghirap sa magulong sitwasyon.

don't get me wrong, mahal ko ang bansang ito.ang sarap ng buhay ko dito.pero kawawa naman ang mga kapitd ko at mga anak namin kung di kami kikilos ngayon.

kita kits na lang tayo. :D

[yebo]

defaulting on the loan repayments will be like a business being put on receivership, the banks take over managing the country's finances. gaya nung under imf ang pinas, di pwede gumalaw ang pilipinas ng walang approval ang imf and creditor banks. it means putting all the infrastructure projects on hold except for the very important ones, and services like health, education, etc take a back seat to servicing the loan. kaya naiwanan ang pinas nuon sa development sa asia kasi under imf control tayo, di maka-invest ang pinas sa development. syempre pa ang peso-dollar exchange rate ay tataas. which means lahat ng prices tataas din pero ang sahod ay hindi. at higit sa lahat dagdag taxes para mabayaran ang loan.

[yebo]

defaulting on the loan repayments will be like a business being put on receivership, the banks take over managing the country's finances. gaya nung under imf ang pinas, di pwede gumalaw ang pilipinas ng walang approval ang imf and creditor banks. it means putting all the infrastructure projects on hold except for the very important ones, and services like health, education, etc take a back seat to servicing the loan. kaya naiwanan ang pinas nuon sa development sa asia kasi under imf control tayo, di maka-invest ang pinas sa development. syempre pa ang peso-dollar exchange rate ay tataas. which means lahat ng prices tataas din pero ang sahod ay hindi. at higit sa lahat dagdag taxes para mabayaran ang loan.

[tagalnasaabroad]

meron talagang mga ganid sa lipunan..and these pricks simply beget their rotten ways to their offsprings & sub-offsprings til juan de la cruz comes out of the oven hole bone-dried.. politics, pinoy-style..

IMHO, why dont we ask people from argentina? andiyan pa naman sila sa mapa ng mundo..nananalo parin sa olympics..baka me matutunan tayo pano mag-SURVIVE???

for me, i'll just support GMA in my own honest way..for one continue sending my salary thru the banks; two exert best efforts to exercise frugal lifestyles for my family, three convince my relatives & friends to consider politics as the no. 1 prerequisite of going to hell, four patronize anything local-made and.. 3-5 years from now retire & spend the rest of my days in the quietness and freshness of rural comforts..

[TJMaxx]

Cool it guys. Don't get so panicky.
Maybe you guys weren't born yet during the early 1980s.
Now, that was REAL CRISIS time.
Interest rates were at 45% per annum. Inflation rate was
the highest since World War II, dollars were rationed, there
were always demos in the streets, there was panic buying in groceries (think 1 woman buying up a hundred rolls of toilet paper). Really scary times and to top it all, we were under martial law.
Heck, we've been through worst times before.

We're also far different from Argentina. That country just relied heavily on their cattle industry by exporting beef. They had no other major export industries aside from that. So when they export their cattle abroad, these cows do not remit dollars back home to their calves. Our biggest export is People. We send people to all corners of the world. These people send foreign exchange back to the country. This foreign exchange is what is keeping our economy afloat all these years. Our OFWs are our Saviours. Without them, this country would have been destroyed long time ago. And it is because of them that we will not be another Argentina.

And since you are just young, it would be useful for you to research on the hidden agendas of these UP Economists and whose interests they ultimately serve. UP Economists are leading advocates of CURRENCY DEVALUATION. That bitch Solita Monsod is a damn Devaluationist. She wants our country to continue to devalue our money. She claims that will make our exports more competitive. But in truth, she is a paid hack of foreign interests who wants to gobble up our resources and properties at devalued prices. Matagal nang walang credibilidad yang si Winnie Monsod, don't listen to a word she says. They are just creating panic so that there will be capital flight and capital flight will lead to devaluation. THAT is the real agnda of these UP Economists.

[GlennSter]

what will they get from all of those?

[explorer]

marcos time and GMA's time are different. nun time ni marcos wala pang globalization nun at lahat ng decision pwede gawin ni marcos. nun time ni marcos, sya lang ang kurakot at mga cronies nya. ngayon halos lahat kurakot na kahit sino ilagay mo. accepted na sa society ang kurakot (dahil narin kay marcos) at wala man lang nakukulong hanggang ngayon. we have the biggest budget deficit in history. yung kay marcos, kaya lang nagkaroon ng crisis kasi wala ng tiwala sa leadership ni marcos ang foreign countries...yung sa situation ngayon, it looks like wala ng tiwala ng foreign nations sa philippines as a nation. kahit sino makaupo, malala na yung systema. nun time ni marcos, yung currency value were fixed by central bank. ngayon kahit ano gawin ng central bank, babagsak talaga ang value ng peso once the government will have a default in foreign debts payment.

btw, what are our major exports? those are the electronics components which we also buy from abroad. kung devaluated na ang peso, we will be paying more to buy raw materials and machines/equipment to be able to produce them. yes we can sell them at lower prices because of lower peso value. in most cases, during the currency devaluation, the exporting companies that get their raw materials from abroad are losing money.

are we exporting our agricultural products? yes but very little. in fact we are importing rice from vietnam and thailand. we are an importing nation rather than an exporting one and the worst will come if our peso goes down the drain.

btw, the 7~10 billion dollar remitance by the OFWs every year is just a small fraction compared to the 50 billion dollar debt that will turn into 100+ billion dollars once we have our 100% peso devaluation. besides, the 7~10 billion remitance could not be used by the government because those are private money by the citizens. worse case, those families that receive those remitances will keep those money because they all know that their dollars will continue to grow with peso devaluation.

[yebo]

sorry but i disagree with tjmaxx when he said ms monsod was for devaluing the peso. in fact i've heard her before saying devaluation hits the country worse since the country relies heavily on imported fuel. higher peso-dollar exchange rates would mean higher fuel prices and this will in turn erode whatever gains there will be from more competitive exports.

but of course i could be wrong and ms monsod could have changed her position since i saw her on tv saying that way way back, which makes tjmaxx's comment correct.

[explorer]

FPJ should rejoice that he lost the elections!
Updated 01:02am (Mla time) Aug 23, 2004
By William Esposo
INQ7.net


THE great Renaissance French philosopher Michel de Montaigne had aptly put it: “There are some defeats more triumphant than victories.” As the country’s problems start to unravel, I can imagine Fernando Poe, Jr. (FPJ) starting to smack his lips to relish all the misery he had so narrowly missed in the aftermath of defeat. Indeed, insofar as President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is concerned, not all you wish for can be all that good.
From day one, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo had inherited trouble. Barely four months after she succeeded Joseph Estrada in January 21, 2001, the supporters of the disgraced leader staged a violent assault which almost brought her to the same fate of her predecessor.

Cory Aquino had her coup attempts and four terms later, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo had her Oakwood Incident. Corruption scandals hounded her no end, capped with the worst and most serious of all – Sen. Panfilo Lacson’s Jose Pidal expose which took husband Mike Arroyo before the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee. To my recollection, Mike Arroyo was the only presidential spouse to ever have to face the legislative probe body.

Yet in comparison, the problems Macapagal-Arroyo had to face during her first four years in Malacanang are trifling compared to the series of crises of tsunami proportions looming on the Philippine horizon.

There is the foreign debt and the deficit. Financial experts and businessmen predict that the Philippine peso may reach P70 to US$1 because of these. Taipan Lucio Tan, in fact, at some time said that the peso could hit P100 to the US$1! Macapagal-Arroyo may not have been solely responsible for the enormous foreign debt or the deficit that were accumulated through three decades under the terms of four previous presidents. But that is hardly any consolation considering that the full impact of the untidy mess will take place under her watch.

There is the continued rise of oil prices that raises the prices of just about everything along with it. Contrast that with the state of the economy and the inability of workers to get any form of substantial salary increases – and it does not take a genius to see that this is an issue that could easily spill over to the streets with unpredictable results.

There is the sudden blurring of relations with the United States after Macapagal-Arroyo decided to withdraw the Philippine contingent in Iraq to save migrant worker Angelo de la Cruz from decapitation. We have seen how US President George W. Bush had taken personally the rejection of France and Germany to join his Iraq misadventure. It would then logically follow that he would also employ every means at his disposal to drive home his displeasure over the Philippine troop withdrawal – from nullifying promised financial packages to out-and-out pressure and/or retaliation.

Any patriotic Filipino will no doubt support her decision to save the life of Angelo de la Cruz and would also want a better level of relationship – from the current ‘master and vassal’ – between the US and the Philippines. Still, this finds Macapagal-Arroyo in the situation of losing the one ally who could have played a key role in alleviating her presidential woes.

As if the tsunamis of our Philippine condition are not enough, Macapagal-Arroyo now even faces the threat of a power crisis in the next two years akin to the one that had plagued the Aquino term. It takes at least three years to put up a power infrastructure, that is, if you manage to lure in investors to plunk in the huge capital. Again, Macapagal-Arroyo did not create the power crisis – Ferdinand Marcos did with his slew of miscalculations and erroneous decisions in addition to the failure of subsequent administrations to install meaningful and long-term alternatives. Now she must grapple with worse power conditions than that which beleaguered her predecessors Cory Aquino and Eddie Ramos.

The political opposition must surely be seeing the reality of the imminent mega crises and chooses instead to stay uninvolved knowing that all this can well be the beginning of the end. Why be blamed for the collapse? Why be accused of being a plotter cum de-stabilizer the way opposition voices are invariably branded by the administration? Remember what Napoleon said: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.”

Certainly, FPJ would be in no position to even come close to tackling any of these crises. His total lack of academic preparation and job experience does not inspire confidence, to say the least.

But the question is – is Macapagal-Arroyo up to it? In terms of preparation for the job and work ethic, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo rates an A. What worries me is how she handles crisis and her style of governance.

Macapagal-Arroyo likes to solve problems through accommodation. She won the elections by taking accommodation to the extreme. Her K-4 coalition is a melting pot of recruits from opposing political sides. Her new cabinet is mostly the result of accommodation. The trade offs and rewards are quite evident.

Now the problem is – horse-trading and accommodation will not get you through the debt, deficit, power and high prices crises. These are ‘black and white’ problems needing unequivocal solutions. Playing footsy just to please can be deadlier than irreversible gangrene. There just aren’t any grey areas for accommodation.

The relationship with the US is easier to address. Give the Americans enough pounds of flesh and the carrots will start flowing again. The problem will be if the Filipino nation will agree to the conditions of the trade. In the Angelo de la Cruz crisis, the country would not trade a lowly truck driver for all the incentives of the spoils of war in Iraq.

A student of history will think that for crises of such proportions as what Macapagal-Arroyo now faces, surviving the tempest will require:

1. A resolute leader of such political will as Abraham Lincoln who held the American nation together and preserved the union of the states during the American Civil War.

2. An inspiring leader who can galvanize and unite the nation through a period of ordeal and sacrifice like no less than what Winston Churchill did for Britain during World War II.

Unfortunately, based on the track record of the last four years, these are leadership qualities where Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo is very much wanting.

Her last four years were marked by division within her very own ranks, a rudder-less style of governance that shifted direction with every wind, deepening public cynicism and loss of faith in the political leadership and the very system itself. Macapagal-Arroyo must metamorphose into these leadership qualities of a Lincoln and a Churchill if she is to register a passing mark in history.

Greatness is not genetically derived. It is a result of the strength of character molded by crisis and the principled choices one makes in life.

[explorer]

btw, when did most of the car assemblers in the country closed their plants here? toyota, ford, nissan, volkswagen, chrysler, GM closed their plants in 1983 just a few months after ninoy's assasination and when the peso value went down from 7 to 14. so expect an unprecedented mass labor lay-offs once we have a deep dive in peso value versus the dollar.