The Anatomy of Murder: Tropical Storm Sendong/Washi

[tomboy]

Effecto pag inuna ang christmas party.

[SIZE=3]The Anatomy of Murder: Tropical Storm Sendong/Washi [/SIZE]Sendong - within the Philippine Area of Responsibility

The weekend was approaching. A low pressure area near Palawan had just begun its journey down to Vietnam, although I saw it as going to Malaysia before dissipating. It did. The skies of the metro were cloudy, threatening to disappoint those of us who were waiting for the red moon, the last total lunar eclipse until 2014. People were asking why it was not getting colder, why it was rainy. Bettina was struggling to explain the NE monsoon.

December 9, Friday Before the onslaught


Model tracks were already showing a potential storm developing on the 15th. As early as noon on Dec 10 I alerted the followers of my weather page.



Nothing much was happening throughout the 11th, the area of development remained, and I was watching it as an invest on the CIMSS site,
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December 12, Monday Now an invest

The system was numbered as Invest WP95 and RAMMB began reporting its track. Models were consistent that a cyclone was going to develop.




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December 13, Tuesday About to enter PAR "Looks like a meanie"

JTWC had already posted its initial graphic, and had indicated that the possibility of development was high. WP95 was still outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility, but was almost certain to enter





I posted, in simple terms, that it looked like it would “become a meanie.”

As of 12:32 am there was no word from PAGASA.


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[tomboy]

Effecto pag inuna ang christmas party part 2

December 14, Wednesday Already a Tropical Depression and quickly, a Tropical Storm

WP95 was already Tropical Depression 27 and was intensifying. Granted, it was still out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility.



See, the thing is, even when a system is OUTSIDE of the Philippine Area of Responsibility, it does not mean it should not be reported. In fact, there have been a few occasions when Pagasa has chosen to be zealous (remember Ramon 1 and 2?) and they report and actually name a system that has not entered PAR. How they select what to report on and name and get excited about seems to have no pattern. [Or does it have something to do with Yumul not having been around much for this storm?]

Ten hours later, I again asked. Where was Pagasa?




By the early evening of December 14, TD27 had achieved Tropical Storm status and was expected to intensify. The forecast was it would reach category 1 typhoon status at its peak on Friday before making landfall somewhere along the coast of Surigao.

Finally on Wednesday, December 14, the early evening news carried the story of TS27, but saying it was only a Tropical Depression that would be named Sendong when it entered the PAR.



[SIZE=3]However, they also said that no typhoon signals would be raised until Friday or Saturday. Despite the fact that landfall was expected on Friday and their own policy is that signal #1 should be issued at least 36 hours before a storm hits. [/SIZE]



The late evening news of ANC on Wednesday, when TS27 was at longitude 136 and almost inside PAR, reported that the system would enter the PAR on Friday.

[Remember JTWC's forecast landfall was early Friday afternoon.]
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December 15, Thursday Within the Philippine Area of Responsibility, PAGASA gets on board

As of 2 am, TS27 was at 6.9,136.2 very close to the boundary of PAR. By 6 or 7 am it had already breached the boundary of PAR and TRMM and NOAA’s eTrap were already reporting on potential rainfall.



[SIZE=3]It was not until 5 pm Thursday that Pagasa decided to announce that a storm was headed in – less than 24 hours before its forecast landfall![/SIZE]



On Thursday afternoon, Pagasa had its first press con on TS27 and finally issued typhoon signal #1, which technically means (as per their website) that a storm is entering in at least 36 hours (Take note, those of us monitoring already knew that landfall was expected on Friday at 2 pm, less than 24 hours from the time the signal was raised.)

By 11 pm it had increased the areas covered by signals: Signal #2 now up over Eastern Samar, Western Samar, Leyte Provinces, Camotes Island, Bohol, Surigao Del Norte, Siargao Island, Surigao Del Sur , Dinagat Province, Agusan Provinces and Misamis Oriental

Signal #1 now over Sorsogon, Ticao Island, Masbate, Northern Samar, Biliran Island, Panay Island, Guimaras, Negros Provinces, Cebu, Siquijor Island,Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte, Samal Island, Bukidnon, Lanao Provinces, Misamis Occidental, and Zamboanga Provinces.

[SIZE=3]Pagasa also announced that that the estimated rainfall amount was from 10 - 25 mm per hour (heavy) within the 400 km diameter of the Tropical Storm.[/SIZE]

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[tomboy]

Effecto pag inuna ang christmas party last part.

December 16, Friday Before Landfall

At 12:37 AM on Friday, about 14 hours before landfall I posted the now bally-hoo’ed NASA TRMM report on the rainfall of Washi. Some of my site members had taken notice.



link to TRMM

NASA - Hurricane Season 2011: Tropical Storm Washi (Western North Pacific Ocean)

I stayed up all night to see if there would be any change, any annoucements.

I posted a tweet asking Pagasa why Basilan was not under a typhoon signal. I did not get a reply, and I think there had not been any tweets from them for several hours. This as a storm was approaching. I was becoming worried, if not upset.


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December 16, Landfall

By midafternoon Friday, Sendong had made landfall close to Bislig, pretty much on schedule as forecast early in the week. It was a straight runner, had kept to its westward track, veering a bit more south, but not radically different from its original direction.

Through the afternoon it barreled its way through Hinatuan, Malaybalay, and over the course of 12 hours made its way to Cagayan de Oro and Iligan, hitting them in the dead hours of the night.
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[SIZE=3]December 17, Disaster

I repeat: over the course of 12 hours Sendong made its way to Cagayan de Oro and Iligan, hitting them in the dead hours of the night.

It caught them by surprise.

How can a typhoon that has been under observation by NOAA for almost a week,has kept pretty much to its forecast track has made landfall 12 hours before, and has been travelling across Mindanao and the Visayas, take anyone BY SURPRISE?

Did no one from the neighboring provinces think to call them and warn them?

Did the NDRMMC not know what had already passed through in the last several hours?

Did no one alert the local government in CDO and Iligan to rouse and move their people.

What happened? Was everyone at a Christmas party save for me and my weather page followers?

Oh wait, yes, it’s because the people were complacent and Mindanao does not have enough Doppler radar because it’s not Typhoon Country, and the Manual needs to be revised.

Yes, that must be it. [/SIZE]

****

Walang tigil ang ulan, at nasaan ka araw... Wala na bang nananatiling Pag-asa. Nakapagtataka, saan ka napunta?


Image sources

NOAA

JTWC

CIMSS

eTRAP

RAMMB

NAVY

[vinj]

When i first saw this intensify from a low pressure area to a tropical storm and approach the Mindanao area, i already had a bad feeling about this storm.

Thankfully, my friends in CdO are safe and organizing relief efforts just as well.

[holdencaulfield]

to santa claus: christmas is dead!

[marg]

This will happen again and again and again.

The Philippines is visited by 20+ typhoons every year. One or two will be devastating.

That's the Reality no one can change.

[xninjax]

Hope this would be YET another lesson for our government to improve their calamity preparedness

What our affected brothers need right now is help.

So in case some of our kind hearted tsikot brothers want to help, please refer to the first image below.

[Gerbo]

Many were caught unaware of the impending doom.

As they say, a disaster is a combination of factors. Each with a intensifying effect when taken together.

[Ry_Tower]

Many were caught unaware of the impending doom.

As they say, a disaster is a combination of factors. Each with a intensifying effect when taken together.

Agree, its a combination of unpreparedness, lacking technical expertise/machinery and something new to CDO's history.

[vinj]

This will happen again and again and again.

The Philippines is visited by 20+ typhoons every year. One or two will be devastating.

That's the Reality no one can change.

Definitely. And do expect it to get worse as complacency, urbanization and deforestation meet.