New Tropical Storm Spotted - July 9, 2007

[Hanren]

We might begin to see rainy days ahead.. it may not affect us directly but it will begin to enhance the Southwest monsoon...(pardon the ALL CAPs text and the technical Jargons-just copied it from the link below) .. I'll just update you later on its progress..
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URL: https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/w...wp0407prog.txt

WDPN31 PGTW 081500MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 05//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS, AND HAS REMAINED A TROPICAL STORM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND A 080845Z SSMI PASS INDICATES IMPROVED BANDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. TS 04W HAS TRACKEDNORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

B. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH OF GUAM.THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS BASED ON 2.5/2.5 DVORAK ESTIMATES.A 080641Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITEIMAGERY SUGGEST THE LLCC IS CONSOLIDATING, ALTHOUGH STILL RELATIVELYBROAD. TS 04W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE STORM. THE OVERALL EXTENTOF CIRCULATION IS LARGE, AS IS INDICATED BY DEEP SOUTHERLY WINDSOBSERVED AT CHUUK, AND WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AT GUAM, BOTHLOCATIONS OVER 300 NM AWAY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ANTI-CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC, HELPING TO LOWERVERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD EQUATORWARDOUTFLOW WITH A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.3. FORECAST

B. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH TAU 72, AND THUS THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE. THE SYSTEM WILLINTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE BUILDING ANTICYCLONE ALOFT ENHANCES RADIAL OUTFLOW. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE INREASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH THE FORECAST BEING BASED ON THE CONSENSUS.

C. THE AVAILABLE MODEL FIELDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTETO A BREAK IN THE STR IN THE VICINITY OF OKINAWA. TS 04W WILLCONTINUE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT REACHES THE BREAK NEARTAU 96. BEYOND THIS POINT A POLEWARD TURN IS LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY,THE BREAK IN THE STR WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING TS 04WTO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 120. THE DYNAMICS AIDS BEGIN TODIVERGE PAST TAU 72, SINCE THE NOGAPS AND SECONDARY GFS TRACKERSAPPEAR TO DROP THE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE, THE EXTENDED FORECAST ISWEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND EGRR SOLUTIONS.

FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//NNNN

[fourtheboys96]

hmmmmm....one week na kami inuulan ng malakas dito sa laguna tuwing hapon. wala pa pala weather disturbance nun.

[kimpOy]

hindi nabuo ang bagyo... (sabi ni kuya kim)
eto maaraw sa amin... pero kanina makulimlim

[torque2006]

cnn weather listed it as a tropical storm, which will affect taiwan and japan in five days.

[Hanren]

good news..mukhang di na tatama sa atin..tama ka sir Torque2006.. mukhang Taiwan or Japan ang tatamaan nya..

WDPN31 PGTW 090300MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 04W WARNING NR 07//RMKS/1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. ANIMATED MULITSPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EXTREMELY LARGE CIRC-ULATION THAT IS FURTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLCC, AND A 082236Z SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. BASED ON THE CURRENT BEST TRACK POSITION, TS 04W HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, HOWEVER, THIS SPEED MAY BE FAST DUE TO PREVIOUS UN-CERTAINTY OF THE LLCC POSITION.

B. TS 04W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. THE 45 KT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0/3.0. A 081943Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 082012Z WINDSAT PASS SHOW A BAND OF GRADIENT-INDUCED 30-35 KT WINDS ACROSS THE MARIANAS ISLANDS BETWEEN THE STORM AND A STRONG ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST. THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF TS 04W AND THUS ARE NOT REFLECTED IN CURRENT WIND RADII. TS 04W IS CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) NORTH OF THE STORM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE WESTWARD EXTENDING TUTT NEAR 150E APPEARS TO BE AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL.

3. FORECAST REASONING.

A. TS 04W REMAINS IN THE STANDARD, TROPICAL EASTERLIES PATTERN.

B. THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE UNDER THESTRONG STR THROUGH TAU 72. WITH THE DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOWCHANNEL, TS 04W WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICALRATE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72, WITH THE FORECAST BEING BASED ON THE CONSENSUS.

C. THE AVAILABLE MODEL FIELDS STILL FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTETO A BREAK IN THE STR IN THE VICINITY OF OKINAWA. TS 04W WILLWILL TURN POLEWARD NEAR TAU 96 AS IT REACHES THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE. DUE TO THE EXTREMELY LARGE NATURE OF THE TC, THE POSSIBILITY ALSO EXISTS FOR THE TC TO MODIFY ITS OWN ENVIRONMENT, FURTHER CONTRIBUTING TO A POLEWARD TURN. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE EXTENDED FORECASTAS THE AVAILABLE AIDS DIVERGE. ECMWF AND NOGAPS ARE INDICATING A SHARPER POLEWARD TURN AFTER TAU 96, WHILE EGRR SHOWS A MORE NORTH-WESTWARD TRACK. THE SECONDARY GFS TRACKER CONTINUES TO LOSE THE CIRC-ULATION. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK IS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THE BREAK IN THE STR WILL ENHANCE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ALLOWING TS 04W TO REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT TAU 96. AFTER THE TC BEGINS TO TURN POLEWARD, IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//NNNN

[chua_riwap]

Hindi kaya sapat yung mga ulan ngayon para tumaas yung water level sa La Mesa dam? Critical na raw yung level ng dam. Magkakaroon na ng lesser water pressure sa Metro Manila?

Sana dumalas na lang ang ulan, huwag na bagyo, para di tayo magka-problema sa tubig.

[Asus700]

Hindi kaya sapat yung mga ulan ngayon para tumaas yung water level sa La Mesa dam? Critical na raw yung level ng dam. Magkakaroon na ng lesser water pressure sa Metro Manila?

Sana dumalas na lang ang ulan, huwag na bagyo, para di tayo magka-problema sa tubig.

+1

yan ang ipagdasal nating lahat

[CVT]

Here in SouthMM,- medyo maulan na rin, pero hindi tuluy-tuloy.....

Like now, heavy rain clouds on top, but not a drop of rain, when it was raining a bit hard an hour ago, with some gusty wind....

3202:rainbow:

[LexTer]

dito sa antipolo tuwing hapon din ulan. sa umaga napaka init naman. uso sipon tuloy.

[Lemon]

Maglilinis ako sasakyan mamya, wag ka muna uulan please.