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February 20th, 2007 11:54 AM #31
everyone should be afraid of big balls
Edit bullet before food = FTMFL!!!
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February 20th, 2007 12:16 PM #32It looks like we're arguing semantics now. I'll simplify my point to say that if (and that's a big 'if', as there are no indication of such things) Indonesia (or any country for that matter) becomes adventurous again (East Timor redux?), they'll soon find out that Australia will be lot tougher nut to crack.
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February 20th, 2007 12:39 PM #33
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February 20th, 2007 01:51 PM #34Sad to say, but yes. Blame it on the anti-communist sentiment at that time. Indonesia alleged that the pro-democracy Fretilin Party was communist. The US and its allies (incl. Australia), fearing the communist domino-effect might spread to pro-Western Indonesia, chose not to interfere with the invasion, in essence, supporting the Indonesian invasion of East Timor.
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February 20th, 2007 02:16 PM #35
Amazing how politics complicate matters......
Considering the proximity of Timor (earlier, I thought it was a little farther away) to Australia, it could become a flashpoint should Indonesia decide to annex East Timor with Australia easily becoming embroiled in it.
Although it seems unlikely right now, I'm sure the Australian military have been training on how to deal with such a scenario. I know I would. It also makes knowing the whereabouts of those Indonesian subs even more important.
I hope it never gets to that.
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February 20th, 2007 03:32 PM #36
it may not get to that now.but you are right. it pays off to be a bit "wary" so one is one's toes. are we even sure that the philippines is really "wary" as you said? If I got that right? Or is the Philippines overconfident? Or just blind?
Was Aus wary when the japanese were bombing (was it Darwin?) or sending planes to part of the north?
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February 20th, 2007 05:45 PM #37
The Philippines? I'm not sure what's there to be overconfident about. But, I'd guess that must be one attitude they're (GMA) assuming. "Oblivious" is probably the proper term.
Just about every country in ASEAN is strengthening their military except the Philippines. From what perceived threat? The US? Nah. The US oil supply routes are at the other side of the world. Aussies? Nope. There's nothing to gain by antagonizing its neighbors. It's China that seems to be on everyone's minds. Why? It's progressing quite fast. As China progresses, its demand for Middle East oil will increase. If anyone noticed, China's expanding its navy from a coastal defence force to one with blue-water capability. They will try to ensure their oil supply routes aren't threatened.
Nothing inherently bad there. But, most oil heading to Japan, Korea, and China passes through the Straits of Molucca. That piece of water is jointly controlled by Malaysia and Indonesia. It's probably the most strategic body of water in Southeast Asia. If there ever was a spat between the two countries, guess which giant will come a-knocking.....
Where do the Philippines fit in? Not much. But in light of all that going on around her, I think the Philippines should be strengthening its military too. I think the government is too focused on keeping the military weak so it can't mount a coup. At least that's how I feel.
Ok. I'm tired from typing. I think I've spinned this thread off course too much already. It was fun, though. I'm a motor mouth when it comes to military hardware.Last edited by Jun aka Pekto; February 20th, 2007 at 05:50 PM.
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February 20th, 2007 07:35 PM #38
you arent getting off that easy. anyway, so does it seem likely China may go the expansion (invasion) route?
do you think that China may opt to be big brother to the region?
no military hardware question. more like speculation into their policies for the future as they strengthen as the other superpower perhaps?
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February 20th, 2007 08:17 PM #39
If they continue to depend on Middle East oil, sure. If they feel their oil lifeline is threatened or if they feel they're being emasculated economically, they might rationalize military action the same way Japan did when the US imposed an economic embargo after they invaded China.
I'm certainly wondering why they're building up to a blue-water navy after all these years. They want the same power projection capability the US has. They already have an Admiral Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier in their possesion. With their knack for reverse-engineering, it wouldn't take them long to either construct copies or build indigenous ones that are more capable.
http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/surf...aftcarrier.asp
In addition, I think they now have nuclear ballistic missile subs or at least have them on the drawing board. They're also designing a fighter aircraft that can be used for carrier-borne operations.....
I'm liable to be "wary" of China so long as it has a totalitarian government. Watch em for the next 10-15 years......
Add: Hey, what do you mean I can't get off that easy? If I have to hit the can, I'm going......C ya ...j/k onlyLast edited by Jun aka Pekto; February 20th, 2007 at 08:22 PM.
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February 21st, 2007 09:00 AM #40reps, create ka na lang ng bagong thread at palipat mo na lang sa mga mods yung mga posts tungkol dito. masyado ng OT to.
btw, Indonesians have 2 Type 209s diesel subs, not Kilos.
bebe eksa, saan kayo nagchuchurch???
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