Philippine Economy Talk

**kisshmet** · March 12th, 2019 08:39 PM

OFW is a vote rich sector of the electorate..peso has to be sacrificed to win votes come may 2019

Sent from my SM-G532G using Tapatalk

**uls** · March 13th, 2019 11:02 AM

PHP weakness is a side effect not the goal

goal is 7 to 8 percent GDP growth

you need to flood the financial system with money if you want growth

so you make banks lend more money by cutting reserve requirement (which the BSP will do this month) and encourage borrowing by cutting interest rates (which the BSP will do a few months later)

the market reacted to this signal by selling PHP

**uls** · March 13th, 2019 11:04 AM

but if inflation starts picking up again it can put the easing plan on hold

**Monseratto** · March 20th, 2019 01:46 PM

Mainland Chinese overtake OFWs as top buyers in Philippine residential market — report

**Monseratto** · March 22nd, 2019 11:14 AM

Peso gained ahead of BSP policy meeting... under Diokno.

PSE is above 8,000 pts...

**uls** · March 22nd, 2019 11:37 AM

^^^

no rate hike was widely expected

it's too early for a rate hike

i was expecting RRR cut... but no rrr cut

in short NO CHANGE in monetary policy

-

BSP shouldn't react too quickly to slowing inflation

inflation can pick up again due to rising fuel prices and weaker PHP

they should wait for more data... at least 2 more months

**Monseratto** · April 3rd, 2019 03:39 PM

Expected drop in the inflation rate...

**uls** · April 3rd, 2019 04:48 PM

i dunno pero i doubt March inflation will be even slower than Feb inflation considering higher fuel prices and weaker PHP

we'll find out

**Monseratto** · April 3rd, 2019 08:04 PM

ADB cuts 2019 growth forecast for the Philippines

The ADB sees inflation easing to 3.8 percent this year and returning within the government’s 3-4 percent target range for 2019 “as global oil prices moderate, food supply improves with a recent law replacing quantitative restrictions on rice imports with tariffs, and last year’s monetary tightening continues to be effective,” it said in a statement.

Headline inflation averaged a 10-year high of 5.2 percent last year due to higher excise taxes slapped on consumption, food supply bottlenecks, and skyrocketing global oil prices.

**uls** · April 4th, 2019 01:36 PM

anecdotal evidence of slowing PH econ

some people i talked to say the same thing -- "mahina"

i can attribute it to:

1. last year's BSP rate hikes --> higher borrowing cost --> less borrowing = less spending

2. delayed approval of 2019 govt budget

less money going around --> things slow down