Philippine Economy Talk

[uls]

Morning

Market to remain volatile this week as investors remain cautious

Middle East geopolitics

US-China trade war



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PEZA reported US and SK companies putting on hold expansion plans coz of concerns over phase 2 of TRAIN

[uls]

PSEI

March 26 low 7,834.11

will we see a test of that level?

if it breaks below, downtrend will continue

[Monseratto]

DIVE! DIVE! DIVE!

As of April 17, 2018
11:32:00 AM

PSEi
7,760.16
Down-110.09
Down-1.40%▼

Ayala Land below 40...

ALI

39.55
Down-0.50
Down-1.25%▼

[dreamur]

Sonamagun! Matira ang matibay.

Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

[uls]

PSEI

March 26 low 7,834.11

will we see a test of that level?

if it breaks below, downtrend will continue

and i thought it would test that level

it broke below it like it wasn't there

[Ry_Tower]

Papano ba naman.

PH faces inflation, overheating risks >> Manila Bulletin Business

[uls]

remember those headlines a couple years ago saying the Philippine economy will benefit most from low oil prices coz we import most of our oil

like this one: How falling oil prices could be good for PH

that was when brent fell to $30

now brent is at $70, we'll get the opposite effect

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aside from TRAIN which is being blamed for higher prices

reminder lang PHP has depreciated against the dollar which makes imports more expensive which also contributes to rising inflation

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current account deficit (more dollars going out than coming in)

that's making PHP weak

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Ph credit growth (one of the highest in the region)

contribute to overheating

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BSP afraid to move

rate hike will slow down economy

not moving will let economy overheat

BSP hoping inflation will level off, come back down so it doesn't have to move

[Monseratto]

Philippine Stock Woes Mount as 218 Losses Pass $2 Billion Mark - Bloomberg

The Philippine Stock Exchange Index dropped as much as 2.3 percent in Manila trading, on track for its lowest close since May 2017, with five stocks falling for each that gained. The gauge has lost almost 10 percent since the end of 2017 as rising inflation, Asia’s worst performing currency and a brewing U.S.-China trade war have increased investor caution toward one of the region’s most expensive markets.

Puregold Price Club Inc., one of the nation’s largest grocery store operators, tumbled more than 11 percent, its sharpest loss since August 2015 after 2017 earnings missed estimates and analysts warned about headwinds. BDO Unibank Inc., the nation’s biggest bank, fell as much as 4 percent, the biggest drag on the index.

“We could still see more selloff as there are concerns in the market that consumer spending is getting hurt from the weaker peso and higher inflation," said Jonathan Ravelas, chief market strategist at BDO Unibank. “The optimism that consumer spending will pick up from the tax reform has been replaced by questions such as how much earnings will be hit by the weaker peso and higher oil prices."

[mda]

Hope you guys got out early..

[uls]

market using puregold earnings as a gauge for health of consumer spending

since Ph economy is powered by consumer spending, puregold's disappointing 2017 earnings is an indication that consumers are getting squeezed

probably side effect of higher fuel prices