Philippine Economy Talk

**Monseratto** · February 8th, 2018 02:34 PM

Wasn't it dear Digong who wanted NFA to buy from local farmers... unfortunately for NFA, the local farmers would rather sell to the local traders at a higher price. " Wala naman shortage, marami naman available na commercial rice..." hehehe

The NFA said rice traders were buying farmers’ produce from P18 to P20 per kilo. It could only offer to buy rice from farmers at P17 per kilo.

Prices of commercial rice have reportedly gone up by about P3 per kilo since the NFA announced that it was experiencing a shortage in its stocks.

RICE 'SHORTAGE': Pinol blasts ‘robbery’ by ‘greedy’ traders | Inquirer News

**uls** · February 8th, 2018 02:37 PM

yeah coz why would farmers sell to the govt at lower price

now the govt wants to import rice

well guess what

whenever news gets out that the PHILIPPINES is looking to buy rice, world market price of rice goes up

coz the Phils. is one of the world's biggest importers of rice

**uls** · February 9th, 2018 04:22 PM

Palace: Too early to conclude TRAIN behind surge in January inflation | Headlines | The Philippine Star

MANILA, Philippines — Malacañang Wednesday contested the claim that the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion caused the higher consumer prices in January.

Presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said it might be too early to attribute the January inflation, which jumped to its highest level in more than three years, to the tax reform law.

"It may be too early to come up with that conclusion. It (TRAIN) was just implemented last January and not all taxes have been imposed," Roque said in a phone patch interview with reporters.

in my view

partly TRAIN

partly weak dollar and rising global commodities prices

**uls** · February 10th, 2018 12:16 PM

Philippines 10Y yield

that's a large jump in yield

meaning bond price has fallen big

**Monseratto** · February 16th, 2018 10:52 AM

kablooey... who said we can't beat Venezuela. Kickbacks from Chinese deals will set Du30 and his cronies foe life (as if they haven't done that yet)...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andersc.../#14e9b44f2fb6

New Philippine Debt of $167 Billion Could Balloon To $452 Billion: China Will Benefit

MAY 13, 2017 * 02:35 PM
Anders Corr , CONTRIBUTOR

The Philippine people must be forewarned about the dangerous China deal. Buyer beware. Caveat emptor.

According to the South China Morning Post on May 12, “Philippine Secretary of Budget and Management Benjamin Diokno estimated some US$167 billion would be spent on infrastructure during Duterte’s six-year term, under the slogan ‘Build! Build! Build!’.” That could increase current Philippine national government debt of approximately $123 billion, to $290 billion. But that does not include interest. High rates of interest that China, the most likely lender, could impose on the new debt could balloon it to over a trillion U.S. dollars in 10 years. More likely according to my analysis, at 10% interest the new debt could go to $452 billion, bringing Philippines’ debt:GDP ratio to 197%, second-to-worst in the world. That understates the burden to the Philippines, as existing national government debt would also accrue interest over that time, and such interest was not included in the analysis. Dutertenomics, fueled by expensive loans from China, will put the Philippines into virtual debt bondage if allowed to proceed.

Duterte and his influential friends and business associates could each benefit with hundreds of millions of dollars in finders fees, of 2-7%, for such deals. Duterte reportedly sought to fast track some deals, and has publicly mooted the possibility of declaring martial law for a wide range of issues, including drugs, traffic, and the situation on Mindanao. Debt imposed on the public through corruption, fast-tracking or under martial law should be considered odious debt, and not repayable. The only way to stop such unjust debt is for the terms to be entirely transparent to the Philippine public in advance, for full cost-benefit analyses to be done by an independent authority on each deal, and for the Philippine Congress to vote on whether each deal proceeds. Failing that will lead to virtual Philippine debt bondage to China.

The attached chart shows how $167 billion of new Philippine debt will affect the Philippine economy over a period of 10 years, at different possible interest rates. It assumes monthly compounding of interest and is based on a standard compound interest formula. The effect will be very different depending on the rate of interest — which neither the Duterte Administration nor China has divulged. The Philippine people must demand to know and agree to this interest rate before the deals are signed.

Even at 5%, which is nearest the lending rate of interest published by the IMF and World Bank for the Philippines, the effect of such a large sum would be an increase in debt (in addition to existing debt) of $275 billion after 10 years. That would bring the Philippines’ debt:GDP ratio to approximately 136%. But at 20%, the maximum interest rate that might occur in a debt-distressed country like Argentina or Venezuela, the debt could balloon to $1.2 trillion in 10 years. That is an unlikely worst-case scenario, but worth calculating as an illustration of the importance of the interest rate.

The interest rate that China will offer the Philippines on such a large sum relative to GDP is likely higher than the World Bank rate, but likely lower than say 15%. Without much needed transparency from the Duterte government and China on the rate, conditionality, and repayment terms of $167 billion of new debt for the Philippines, the public should assume, to forestall a worst-case scenario, that the rate would be somewhere between 10% and 15%. Over 10 years, that could ballon Philippines’ debt:GDP ratio as high as 296%, the highest in the world.

At any likely interest rate, the Philippines will have trouble repaying $167 billion in debt, plus interest, to China. The Philippines will have to give political and economic concessions to China in order to repay annual interest, or renegotiate such a large quantity of debt. That could include political concessions, for example giving up territory or oil rights in the South China Sea or Benham Rise, or it could include economic concessions, for example selling China its national companies, or agreeing to below-market rates on exports to China. Mongolia once agreed to sell coal to China at 11% of the global benchmark price in order to secure a loan to repay other loans. It could happen to the Philippines if it falls behind in interest payments on $167 billion.

In the worst case scenario, China would deem the Philippines too risky as its debt grows, and stop such renegotiations and another country, like Russia, could step in with even stiffer terms. This is currently happening to Venezuela, where in the last few weeks people are starving and dozens have been killed in anti-government riots. Venezuela took extensive loans from China, and could not repay them when the price of oil dropped. Venezuela’s President Maduro, who depends on the high-interest loans to keep his government in power, is so far indebted that China will no longer extend significant capital. To repay China, Maduro is seeking new loans from Russia. This is rightly resisted by Venezuela’s National Assembly, which wants the right to approve loans. Maduro tried to shut down the Assembly in response, and has been able to continue to seek the Russian loan against the Assembly’s wishes. Something similar could happen to the Philippines in 10 years, depending on interest rates agreed to in the coming months. These interest rates, and all details of the deals, need to be made public and approved by the Philippine Congress, or the loans should not go through.

The Philippines is at a crossroads. Duterte and his political allies are seeking billions in loans at unknown interest rates from China, whose companies stand to benefit by offloading idle Chinese industrial capacity to build costly infrastructure for which no proper cost-benefit analysis has been done. Duterte and his allies could gain hundreds of millions of dollars each in finder’s fees from such loans that the Philippine taxpayer will have to pay. This should be considered odious debt if the terms are not transparent to the public in advance, if public cost-benefit analyses are not done for each deal, and if each deal is not approved by Congress. The Philippine people must be forewarned about the dangerous China deal. Buyer beware. Caveat emptor.

**stayhungry** · February 16th, 2018 08:00 PM

China will impose an interest rate on us?

------------------------------------------
Stay hungry. Stay humble.

**uls** · February 17th, 2018 11:23 AM

meron ba magpapautang sa pinas na walang interest?

**uls** · February 17th, 2018 11:30 AM

The Philippines is at a crossroads. Duterte and his political allies are seeking billions in loans at unknown interest rates from China, whose companies stand to benefit by offloading idle Chinese industrial capacity to build costly infrastructure for which no proper cost-benefit analysis has been done. Duterte and his allies could gain hundreds of millions of dollars each in finder’s fees from such loans that the Philippine taxpayer will have to pay. This should be considered odious debt if the terms are not transparent to the public in advance, if public cost-benefit analyses are not done for each deal, and if each deal is not approved by Congress. The Philippine people must be forewarned about the dangerous China deal. Buyer beware. Caveat emptor.

like i said

All this infrastructure building in foreign countries is China's way of putting their companies to work

As their economy slows, their companies have excess capacity

China's companies have a lot of debt but can't be allowed to go bankrupt

Social stability is #1 goal

China has to keep its companies operating, its people working

**uls** · February 19th, 2018 02:16 PM

hindi ba sabi nila makikinabang ang mga minimum wage earner sa TRAIN law?

kasi daw mas malaki ang take home pay kasi wala na income tax

eh bakit...

DZMM TeleRadyo *DZMMTeleRadyo
Feb 16
Diokno: Nagkaroon ng mas malaking usapan sa Malakanyang at sabi ng Pangulo, pag-aralan muna ito (subsidy para sa mga minimum wage earner).

DZMM TeleRadyo *DZMMTeleRadyo
Feb 16
Diokno sa pagbibigay ng P500 na subsidy sa mga minimum wage earner: Kailangan pang pag-aralan 'yan, dahil wala tayong pagkukuhanan sa 2018 budget.

kasi kinain lang ng pagtaas ng presyo ang income tax exemption

ang problema sa mga ekonomista marunong sila sa theory

but the real world is more complex than their economic models and theories

**falken** · February 19th, 2018 03:17 PM

Originally Posted by uls

hindi ba sabi nila makikinabang ang mga minimum wage earner sa TRAIN law?

kasi daw mas malaki ang take home pay kasi wala na income tax

eh bakit...

kasi kinain lang ng pagtaas ng presyo ang income tax exemption

ang problema sa mga ekonomista marunong sila sa theory

but the real world is more complex than their economic models and theories

Mukhang wala namang ekonomista silang kinonsulta bago ginawa ang TRAIN law.

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