How many "new" cars are smuggled?

**niky** · June 22nd, 2010 04:10 PM

Since it's a common theme in a certain thread somewhere in the Tsikot Auto Design forum, I figured I'd look it up.

http://tsikot.yehey.com/forums/showp...&postcount=468
The figures being bandied around regarding smuggling relate to old data covering the periods wherein Subic vehicles were still "legal" to import.... where over half of LTO registrations weren't built by members of CAMPI. Yet, 2003 was the first year after the ban on Subic imports, thus the built-up stockpile of "legal" imports was still incredibly large.

Yet there are still complaints of "technical smuggling". So I decided to find out what the current figures are.

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CAMPI* production figures:
http://campiauto.org/downloads/December_2009/DEC09.pdf

1,219 Truck/Bus
2027 Light trucks (includes large SUVs, but also cargo trucks)
52708 LCV (light commercial vehicles, includes small SUVs and pickups)
30,262 AUV
46,228 Passenger cars

Total: 132,444

*does not include assembled Jeepneys, Multi-cab Jeepney conversions, products from smaller manufacturers (Norkis, Chery, Chana, Foton, Haima, ectera) and various "legal" grey market brand-new imports

If we exclude trucks and buses, which are exempted from the import ban, we get a figure closer to this:

CAMPI Total: 131,225

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LTO Registrations: 2009*
http://www.lto.gov.ph/Stats2009/no_o...e_LTO2009.html

2,833 Trailer
2,679 Bus
18,711 Truck

31,516 SUV
83,645 Commercial

46,038 Passenger Cars

Total: 185,422

*May not accurately reflect total number of "new" cars on the road due to delays in registration, double-registration, dropping of commercial plates for private and vice-versa, re-registration of carnapped vehicles with false papers, and the fact that some smuggled vehicles will not be registered.

If we exclude trucks and buses, which are exempted from the import ban, we get a figure closer to this:

LTO Registrations, Total: 161,199

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Discrepancy between LTO and CAMPI figures:

LTO: 161,199
CAMPI: 132,444

Difference: 29,974

Granted, neither figures are completely accurate, but it gives us a ballpark figure to work with.

Now, CAMPI is composed of 18 automakers, yet there are no separate figures for Chery, CATS, Chana, Foton, FAW, Greatwall, Norkis, Motor Image and other small players are not yet included in the 2009 report. Also not included are locally assembled vehicles and legal brand new imports sold by distributors like Pitstop, Emperor and other concerns.

Let's say CATS has sales of around 200-400, Motor Image around 600, Chery maybe around 600 or so. Foton, FAW, Chana, Norkis and Greatwall are too small (right now) to matter... but maybe sell around 200-400 altogether. Add legal brand-new imports by small shops and OFW-imported vehicles, and a conservative estimate of these "non-smuggled" registrations is around 3000 vehicles. (may be higher, but NOBODY posts statistics regarding returning OFW vehicle importation and backyard assemblers)

Difference: 26,974 (approx.)

Which is a large number, certainly, but far from the over 100,000 vehicle discrepancy from 2003.

http://campiauto.org/downloads/December_2003/DEC03.pdf

Part of that huge discrepancy is undoubtedly due to the legality of Subic Imports. Sales of legally imported Subic vehicles did not stop in 2003 after the ban, since there was a large backlog of these vehicles on importers lots.

Part of it can also be attributed to the difference in make-up of the CAMPI. Ford-Mazda only joined recently, and they're good for around 8000 units a year. HARI was admitted in 2004 and they're good (currently) for around 11,000 units a year. Before HARI was incorporated... and even today, imported brand-new Starexes were a hot item on the market.

http://www.myhyundai.com.ph/about.ph...sub=milestones

It's interesting to note that 2003 was an especially good year for AUVs, with 2003 sales exceeding that of 2009 sales by nearly 9000 units (for this purpose, the absence of Ford doesn't matter... all three major AUV manufacturers are CAMPI members). Those with keen memories will recall that the AUV tax exemption pushed many people to drop passenger cars in favor of AUVs at that time, and Honda was selling the 10-seater "AUV" CR-V at this time, also. 2003 was just before the dropping of AUV tax exemptions.

I will try to find a way to get proper statistics from the LTO for 2003, since they don't break down registrations by motor vehicle type. It would be interesting to know how much of that 90,000 unit figure is composed of ban-exempt trucks (2009: over 20,000 trucks registered were NOT built locally brand-new) and how much was sourced from legitimate brand-new importers and manufacturers who were non-CAMPI members.

As it is, I can only give a guess-timate that around 20,000 of those 100,000 vehicles were trucks, around 7000 were Ford-Mazdas, around 6000-7000 were probably HARI. That leaves a discrepancy of maybe 70,000 vehicles or less.

Which, granted, is a huge number. But unless the LTO releases accurate records or someone goes through those records one by one, the number of "SUV-ics" included therein will remain unknown. An even bigger unknown is how many of those were smuggled and how many were properly declared. We may never know.

Encouragingly, it points to the government's current drive being somewhat effective at restraining the informal trade of vehicles, if the numbers have dropped to nearly 1/4th that of 2003 levels. ;)

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Hence:
[size=3]CAMPI Sales, 2009 (non-truck/bus): 131,225
LTO Registrations, 2009 (non-truck/bus/MC): 161,199

Difference: 29,974

Non-CAMPI manufacturer sales: 2000+ (conservative estimate)[/size]

[size=5]Thus: 27,974 units, approximately, not sourced from manufacturers, includes locally assembled "backyard" units, OFW imports, legal brand-new grey market units and smuggled units.

This is 15% of all "brand new" LTO registrations.[/size]

Take this information as you will.

This is not a "pro-" or "anti-" position piece. (As a clarification, I am against smuggling, but favor importation, with appropriate taxation) This merely seeks to clarify the numbers that are already available to the public.