Financial Crisis: The Philippine Version

[jpdm]

Well,we can expect perhaps full recovery of our exports next year...

Business Mirror


August 11, 2009


[SIZE=3]Meeting Government Export Goals Dim[/SIZE]


[SIZE=2]by Cai U. Ordinario/reporter[/SIZE]


DESPITE the gradual improvement in export figures, the government may not be able to increase export-growth in the second half to reach its export growth target of -13 percent to -15 percent for 2009, an economist has warned.


The National Statistics Office (NSO) said export growth in the first six months of the year contracted by 32.77 percent to $17.225 billion from $25.623 billion registered in the same six-month period in 2008.
In June exports posted a year-on-year contraction of 24.7 percent to $3.410 billion from $4.527 billion reported in June 2008. However, compared with the previous month’s level, it grew by 10.4 percent from $3.088 billion in May 2009.


In a statement, former budget secretary Dr. Benjamin Diokno said considering the first- half figures released by the NSO, there is a need for merchandise exports to grow by 2.8 percent in the second half of 2009 in order to meet the government’s targets.


“But that’s unrealistic. The United States, the country’s top exports destination, is expected to recover, at best, during the fourth quarter of 2009. But since the recovery is expected to be weak, it is unrealistic to expect that it would mean higher demand for Philippine products. In the meantime, the economies of Japan, Germany and the rest of Europe are expected to be sluggish,” Diokno said.


Diokno said the biggest problem of Philippine exports is its heavy dependence on electronic products. But the demand for these products, he said, is the least likely to recover soon, which may translate into more factory closures and layoffs.

[jpdm]

[SIZE=3]Economy begins recovery
[/SIZE]
Manila Standard
by Roderick T. dela Cruz
August 19, 2009

Latest flash indicators point to a modest Philippine economic recovery from the global financial crisis that started in October last year, the National Statistical Coordination Board said yesterday.


“The impact of the global financial crisis was felt in the Philippines starting October 2008 as exports decreased, manufacturing dropped, stock index declined and car sales weakened. However, statistics point to modest signs of recovery by the end of the first quarter of 2009,” NSCB secretary-general Romulo Virola said yesterday.


The NSCB released the indicators ahead of the announcement of the second quarter gross domestic product growth scheduled in the last week of August. GDP growth slowed to 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2009 from 3.9 percent a year ago.


The statistical agency also confirmed that while indicators on manufacturing such as the value and volume of production index and capacity utilization rate showed declining trend from October 2008, they began to reflect improvement by February this year.



“Total exports as well as exports of electronic products and agricultural products exhibited similar trend. The same can be said for total imports and imports of raw materials and capital goods. Other indicators which showed similar trend are composite stock index, stock market capitalization, and volume of cars sold,” it said.


Data showed that Philippine exports hit a seven-month high of $3.4 billion in June 2009. While shipments were down 24.7 percent from a year ago, the drop was significantly slower than the steep 40.6-percent contraction recorded in January.


Inflation rate, or the rate at which consumer prices are rising, hit a 22-year-low of 0.2 percent in July.


Sales of motor vehicles in the Philippines reached 11,597 units in July, the highest monthly figure in 2009.


At the local stock market, the PSEi, the 30-company benchmark index of the Philippine Stock Exchange, breached 2,850 points in the second week of August, its highest level in more than a year.

Good news!

[uls]

Phil. economic growth for Q2 between -.1% to +.9%

MANILA, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Philippine economic output in the second quarter likely came in between a 0.1 percent contraction and 0.9 percent growth year-on-year, the government said on Thursday.

The forecast by the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) comes one week ahead of the official anouncement of GDP data.

Dennis Arroyo, a senior official at NEDA, told reporters that the agriculture and fisheries sector likely grew 0.44-1.4 percent annually in the second quarter, while services grew 1.7-2.2 percent. The forecast for the industries sector varied from a contraction of 2.9 percent to expansion of 1.3 percent, he said.

He however said the government was maintaining full-year growth projections at 0.8-1.8 percent.

In a July poll, analysts had predicted Q2 growth at a median of 1.0 percent year-on-year.

The economy grew by an annual 0.4 percent in the first quarter, the weakest annual growth since 1998.

[uls]

RP imports slow down for ninth straight month
http://www.gmanews.tv/story/170623/r...straight-month

Philippine imports in June contracted by more than a fifth, the ninth consecutive month that purchased goods from abroad slumped.

The National Statistics Office on Tuesday said imports in June dropped 22.8 per cent to about $4.108 billion.

The latest import figure, however, was 13.6 per cent better from $3.617 billion recorded in the previous month.

what the article doesnt explain is why

imports keep falling coz importers are not restocking goods

warehouses still have a lot of inventory

that means goods arent moving

that means weak economy

[uls]

Hey, we escaped recession

MANILA, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Philippine second-quarter gross domestic product data released by the government on Thursday.

KEY DATA

GDP

year on year change (%):

2009 Q2 1.5 Q1 0.4 2008 Q4 2.9 Q3 4.6 Q2 4.2 Q1 3.9

quarter on quarter change (%):

2009 Q2 2.4 Q1 -2.1 2008 Q4 0.3 Q3 0.7 Q2 1.7 Q1 0.1

NOTE: First quarter 2009 data is revised or subject to revision.

Quarter on quarter changes are seasonally adjusted.

KEY POINTS:

- According to the median of a Reuters poll this week, the economy grew by a seasonally adjusted 2.0 percent in the second quarter, reversing the previous quarter's 2.3 percent contraction. Seven economists forecast expansions ranging from 0.8 percent to 2.8 percent while five others did not give quarter-on-quarter forecasts.

- On an annual basis, growth was expected to have picked up to 0.6 percent in the second quarter, against 0.4 percent in the first quarter, according to the poll. Economists said growth would be helped by strong remittances from overseas Filipinos and government spending on infrastructure and social services.

- The government had expected second-quarter growth to come in between a 0.1 percent contraction and 0.9 percent expansion from a year earlier.

- The government expects full-year growth of 0.8 to 1.8 percent this year, the slowest in at least eight years.

- Consumption fuels about three-fourths of the Southeast Asian economy, based on expenditure breakdown. Domestic demand, while soft as consumers scrimped on spending, has offset part of the 32.77 percent merchandise exports decline in the first half amid the global trade collapse.

[jpdm]

Hongkong Group Finds Pinoys Generous Even In Crisis


A HONG Kong-based charity group funding propoor projects has found many generous Filipinos at a fundraising event on Wednesday evening.
International Care Ministries (ICM), which pools money to feed, school and make healthy children in poor communities in Negros, Bohol and Mindanao was able to raise P2.4 million, liaison officer Daphne Ceniza-Kuok told the BusinessMirror.

“For our first dinner for 500 people, that’s generally satisfying,” Ceniza-Kuok said while waiting for her flight back to the former Crown Colony on Thursday.
She said despite the recession affecting even remotely the Philippine economy, she also found many Filipinos who can’t donate money offering skills and nonfinancial resources.
“It was really satisfying to see fellow Filipinos exerting effort or promising to help that much not in a financial sense,” Ceniza-Kuok said.


by Dennis Estopace
Sept 4, 2009
Business Mirror

[tidus1203]

GMA could bragged all about GDP in her term and flaunt around numbers but she forgot the most important economic number of all, the unemployment rate. But hindi naman ako 100% blaming her administration. Unemployment is also a factor of population so kung tumataas population tataas din unemployment as jobs created does not cope as fast as population growth.

[uls]

Philippine Exports Extend Longest Slump Since 2002
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=atAFFovj2_rk

Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Philippine exports fell for a tenth month, extending the longest slump in seven years and suggesting a nascent recovery in the global economy has yet to revive demand for Asian-made electronics and other goods.

Shipments abroad dropped 25.4 percent from a year earlier to $3.31 billion in July after declining 24.8 percent the previous month, the National Statistics Office said in Manila today. That compares with the median forecast for a 20.8 percent plunge in a Bloomberg News survey of eight economists.

The government has trimmed its 2009 economic forecast three times this year as the global slump crimped orders for Philippine-produced Texas Instruments Inc. semiconductors and Gap Inc. clothes. The central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at a record-low of 4 percent last month after economic growth accelerated to 1.5 percent in the second quarter.

“The recovery in exports will not be a sustained one,” said Carlos Ylagan, a treasurer at BPI Investment Management Inc. in Manila. “We will have some corrections along the way. We may see a W-shaped recovery.”

Worldwide semiconductor sales fell 18 percent in July from a year earlier, according to the San Jose, California-based Semiconductor Industry Association.

Electronics sales, which make up more than half of Philippine exports, fell 25.2 percent to $1.92 billion in July from a year earlier, today’s report showed.

[tidus1203]

Nestle closes Phiilippine factories...

JAKARTA, Indonesia - Swiss-based Nestle, the world's biggest food group, is planning to relocate factories in Malaysia and the Philippines to Indonesia to be closer to raw materials, officials told a local newspaper on Monday.
Brata T. Hardjosubroto, spokesman for Nestle's Indonesia unit, told daily business newspaper Kontan that the firm would announce details of the relocation in November.
Nestle has six factories in Malaysia including one making one of its key beverage brands Milo, and four factories in the Philippines, the paper said.
Indonesian Deputy Trade Minister Mahendra Siregar told the paper Nestle's factory relocation was based on its need to be close to raw material sources.
Nestle is in negotiations with Indonesian cocoa powder producer PT Bumitangerang Mesindotama to supply cocoa for the relocated factories, said Bumitangerang Mesindotama's President Director Piter Jasman.
Indonesia, Southeast Asia's largest economy, is attracting investor interest for its economic resilience during the financial crisis, improved political stability and abundance of natural resources.
The world's largest listed palm oil firm Wilmar is planning to invest $2 billion, including possibly in sugar plantations in a planned giant food estate in the Papua region, the head of the country's investment board said on Monday.
But the country has lagged neighbours in attracting foreign direct investment because of worries over regulatory uncertainty, rampant graft and inadequate infrastructure.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/...ysia-factories

[ghosthunter]

Nestle closes Phiilippine factories...

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/business/...ysia-factories

I wonder if the increasing cost of electricity, transport, fuel and wages have to do with the closing of the local factories of Nestle?