US$ Exch Rate:Yr end:P43/Yr 2008-P37 & Yr 2009 - P30?

**chua_riwap** · September 11th, 2008 11:22 PM

DonT: Looks like I better hold on to my green buck....at least till Sept.

P47.095 na/US$.

**chua_riwap** · November 15th, 2008 06:15 PM

Sumalosep!......

Pero sa mga OFWs.....(tulad ko), it's

:party: time.....

http://beta2.philstar.com/Article.as...bCategoryId=66

Nov. 15, 2008
PhilStar.com

P51/US$ by the Year-end 2008

The Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS) predicts that the peso could depreciate to as low as 51 to a dollar by the end of the year due to movements in capital flows brought about by the global financial turmoil.

UBS, in a recent report on Southeast Asian countries, said that Southeast Asian currencies such as the peso and the Indonesian rupiah have come under considerable pressure this year due to capital flight and less dollars flowing into the Philippines.

The investment bank noted that risk aversion in the wake of the global financial crunch is the one driving currencies down.

“It is financial flows as a result of de-leveraging and de-risking portfolios, not income imbalances, which are driving currencies and other markets,” UBS said.

UBS said the movement of capital flows has been hitting local asset markets.

“Significant stocks of foreign capital liabilities have been built up in recent years and now appear to be in the process of being unwound. This is depressing local asset markets with negative connotations for economic growth,” UBS said.

The government earlier downscaled anew the economic growth projections for this year and in 2009 because of the expected prolonged impact of the global financial crisis.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC), the interagency group that sets the country’s macroeconomic assumptions, lowered the gross domestic product (GDP) growth projection for 2009 to a range of 3.7 percent to 4.7 percent from the official forecast of 6.1 percent to 7.1 percent.

It also changed its GDP growth projection for the year to 4.1 percent to 4.8 percent from the official forecast of 5.5 percent to 6.4 percent.

The crisis in the US, brought about by the credit crunch in its home mortgage market, has reverberated beyond American shores and affected financial markets across the globe.

UBS said that if deleveraging flows continue, policy makers can implement significant effect on capital controls.

“Significant capital controls have been used before and may again be considered before this episode is over,” it said.

Furthermore, UBS said that in the event of capital outflows where the private sector is unable or unwilling to provide an offsetting inflow for a given economy, the authorities can use their stock of assets which are usually official foreign exchange reserves to smoothen the impact on the currency.

“If the foreign exchange reserves are available this can be an effective tool to smooth the impact on the currency, if not the asset markets, that the capital is flying from,” UBS said.

Monetary authorities, for their part, vowed to continuously monitor the currency’s movement and to maximize the tools available. — Iris Gonzales

**gonzo** · November 15th, 2008 06:51 PM

For OFW its good news P50+/$

We said before if Peso appreciates its going to be good to masa because price of commodities will also go down.. but its the other way around nag mahal pa nga!

for OFW losing value to its hard earned $ and increasing prices locally it did not work as we assumed if peso appreciates.... kaya nung humina peso vs $ mga OFW :groupwave: more peso per $

**DonT** · November 15th, 2008 07:15 PM

chua_riwap - nagpalit ka na ba? P49.45 na/US$.

As for me...nagpapalit lang ako to pay the usual monthly bills. still holding on to the greenbuck. Sana pumasok ang mga bonuses habang mataas pa ang USD.

Theres also a lot of prediction that the USD will also go down. But the question is...will the Peso be strong enough to appreciate against the $..baka both will go down. In that case..it would still be better to hold the the US$.

**chua_riwap** · November 15th, 2008 08:12 PM

Nag-remit ako last week, nasa P48.65 pa palit sa Enjaz. Ngayon lampas P49 na palitan.

Pauwi ako this December. Nu'ng umuwi ako nitong June 2008, inabot ko pa yung almost P40+/$ lang. Sa SM, nagpapalit ako noon, P39.90 lang.......

Pero ngayon, mukhang.......

**DonT** · November 15th, 2008 08:49 PM

If the Peso drops till end of Nov...of proly end of the year..then I guess our economy is in deep trouble. It also means that the remmittances from the OFW's are in no way match to the withdrawal of foreign capital in the country.